Girona
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Girona44.1%fair odds 2.27
Draw26.4%fair odds 3.79
Real Sociedad29.5%fair odds 3.39
Expected goals1.54 – 1.22total 2.76
Likeliest score1–112.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Real Sociedad
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Girona ↓ · Real Sociedad → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.5 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Girona goals, columns Real Sociedad goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.5%7.98
- 2–19.2%10.92
- 1–09.1%10.94
- 2–07.5%13.31
- 1–27.2%13.79
- 0–17.1%14.07
- 0–07.0%14.32
- 2–25.6%17.93
- 0–24.7%21.22
- 3–14.7%21.30
Winning margin
9.0%
Girona by 3+
fair 11.14
13.5%
Girona by 2
fair 7.43
21.6%
Girona by 1
fair 4.62
26.4%
Draw
fair 3.79
17.0%
Real Sociedad by 1
fair 5.88
8.4%
Real Sociedad by 2
fair 11.85
4.1%
Real Sociedad by 3+
fair 24.55
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
Girona goals
21%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
Real Sociedad goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 44.1% | 44.8% | -0.7 pp |
| Draw | 26.4% | 25.6% | +0.8 pp |
| Real Sociedad win | 29.5% | 29.6% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.0% | 55.3% | -3.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.9% | 58.5% | -2.5 pp |
| Expected goals Girona | 1.54 | 1.62 | -0.08 |
| Expected goals Real Sociedad | 1.22 | 1.28 | -0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Girona win44.1%2.27
- Draw26.4%3.79
- Real Sociedad win29.5%3.39
- Double chance Girona or draw70.5%1.42
- Double chance Girona or Real Sociedad73.6%1.36
- Double chance Real Sociedad or draw55.9%1.79
- Draw no bet Girona59.9%1.67
- Draw no bet Real Sociedad40.1%2.49
Goals
- Over 0.593.0%1.08
- Over 1.576.8%1.30
- Over 2.552.0%1.92
- Over 3.529.8%3.35
- Over 4.514.6%6.87
- Under 1.523.2%4.31
- Under 2.548.0%2.08
- Under 3.570.2%1.43
Both teams to score
- Yes55.9%1.79
- No44.1%2.27
- Yes and over 2.543.4%2.30
- Girona win and yes21.5%4.65
- Draw and yes19.4%5.15
- Real Sociedad win and yes15.0%6.65
Team goals
- Girona over 0.578.5%1.27
- Girona over 1.545.5%2.20
- Girona over 2.520.1%4.98
- Real Sociedad over 0.570.4%1.42
- Real Sociedad over 1.534.4%2.91
- Real Sociedad over 2.512.4%8.03
- Girona clean sheet29.6%3.38
- Real Sociedad clean sheet21.5%4.66
- Girona win to nil22.6%4.43
- Real Sociedad win to nil14.5%6.90
Handicap
- Girona −1.522.4%4.46
- Girona −2.59.0%11.14
- Real Sociedad +1.577.6%1.29
- Real Sociedad +2.591.0%1.10
- Real Sociedad −1.512.5%7.99
- Girona +1.587.5%1.14
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored358
Favourite won51.4%
Avg chance given to result40.8%
1X2 Brier0.582
Over 2.5 called right57.0%
BTTS called right57.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 74 | 37.9% | 31.1% |
| 40–50% | 142 | 44.5% | 45.8% |
| 50–60% | 72 | 54.7% | 61.1% |
| 60–70% | 36 | 63.8% | 61.1% |
| 70–80% | 27 | 74.5% | 85.2% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 82.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 278 of 358 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5764 | 0.5705 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.1% | 41.7% |
| Favourite won | 52.9% | 54.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 278 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 358 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.