Girona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Girona were slight favourites.
Real Sociedad were the stronger side on L90 Strength (55 vs 47). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Girona. Girona had 3 days of rest, Real Sociedad 5 and had to travel 419 km.
Away travel419 kmRest days3 · 5Matches / 14d2 · 2
Girona44%
Draw26%
Real Sociedad30%
Girona39%
Draw27%
Real Sociedad34%
Girona44%
Draw26%
Real Sociedad30%
Girona37%
Draw27%
Real Sociedad36%
Girona45%
Draw26%
Real Sociedad30%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Girona)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainMiguel Sesma Espinosa
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 18
Team strength
Girona
Real Sociedad
47
L90 StrengthIn forecast
55
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
49
AttackIn forecast
62
64
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Sociedad
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GironaReal Sociedad
1.06
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.54
1.49
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.57
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
74%
Scored inContext
86%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
9%
10.03
ShotsContext
12.40
3.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.76
38%
On target shareContext
37%
6.57
Shots in the boxContext
7.54
65%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.89
14.60
Shots allowedContext
13.09
4.97
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.32
3.69
BlocksContext
3.47
3.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.14
72%
Save rateContext
66%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
460
PassesContext
443
394
Accurate passesContext
369
86%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.79
10.40
FoulsContext
13.71
14.37
Fouls sufferedContext
12.17
1.97
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.35
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.00
ShotsContext
11.70
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.56
33%
On target shareContext
35%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
66%
Box shareContext
56%
10%
ConversionContext
15%
2.25
OffsidesContext
3.13
13.30
Shots allowedContext
14.30
5.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.44
3.80
BlocksContext
3.10
4.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
78%
Save rateContext
68%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
507
PassesContext
489
443
Accurate passesContext
415
87%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.79
8.90
FoulsContext
12.40
14.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Girona
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,146 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Real Sociedad
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel419 km1,482 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Girona |
Real Sociedad |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3La Liga 2025-2026, 11 May | 5La Liga 2025-2026, 9 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 419 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,146 km | 1,482 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3 | 3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Girona
Confirmed XI
13P. Gazzaniga(G)
24Álex Moreno
12Vitor Reis
16Alejandro Francés
4Arnau Martínez
18A. Ounahi
20A. Witsel
23Iván Martín
3Joel Roca
15V. Tsyhankov
21Bryan Gil
Real Sociedad
Confirmed XI
1Álex Remiro(G)
17Sergio Gómez
16D. Ćaleta-Car
31Jon Martín
2J. Aramburu
12Y. Herrera
4Jon Gorrotxategi
7Barrenetxea
24L. Sučić
14T. Kubo
10Mikel Oyarzabal
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Girona
Scores -0.03 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Sociedad
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Girona+0.4 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Real Sociedad-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Girona · Home
1.29points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-7
- Scored
- 1.12
- Conceded
- 1.47
Real Sociedad · Away
0.88points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-6-8
- Scored
- 1.18
- Conceded
- 1.65
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Girona | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | D 1–1 AL 1–3 H | D 3–3 AL 0–1 H |
| Mallorca | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Valencia | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Real Betis | L 2–3 HD 1–1 A | D 2–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Real Madrid | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | L 1–4 AL 1–2 H |
| Villarreal | W 1–0 HL 0–5 A | L 1–3 AL 2–3 H |
| Osasuna | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H | W 3–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Athletic Club | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 AW 3–2 H |
| Levante | D 1–1 AL 0–4 H | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Celta Vigo | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Alaves | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H | D 3–3 HL 0–1 A |
| Barcelona | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Sevilla | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Oviedo | L 0–1 AD 3–3 H | D 3–3 HL 0–1 A |
| Getafe | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Espanyol | W 2–0 AD 0–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–3 H | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Elche | L 0–3 A | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Points | 36 of 102 · 1.06 per game | 44 of 102 · 1.29 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
1 Girona wins3 draws3 Real Sociedad wins
Goals per game1.43 – 1.86
Over 2.557%
Both scored71%
Clean sheets14% · 29%
- 12 Dec 2025Real Sociedad1–2Girona
- 18 May 2025Real Sociedad3–2Girona
- 19 Oct 2024Girona0–1Real Sociedad
- 3 Feb 2024Girona0–0Real Sociedad
- 12 Aug 2023Real Sociedad1–1Girona
- 13 May 2023Real Sociedad2–2Girona
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Girona | Real Sociedad | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.06 | 1.54 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.49 | 1.57 | |
| Match goals | 2.54 | 3.11 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 49% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 77% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 9% | |
| Failed to score | 26% | 14% | |
| Games | 35 | 35 |
| Girona | Real Sociedad | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Girona | Real Sociedad | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.21 | 5.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.97 | 4.46 | |
| Match total | 9.18 | 10.06 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 17/33 | 66% 23/35 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 14/33 | 51% 18/35 | |
| Over 10.5 | 39% 13/33 | 43% 15/35 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.14 | 2.11 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.83 | 2.49 | |
| Match total | 3.97 | 4.60 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 15/35 | 60% 21/35 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 10/35 | 37% 13/35 | |
| Girona | Real Sociedad | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 9.60 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.50 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Sesma Espinosa Spain · 18 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.50league 4.28
Red cards0.00league 0.27
Cards 5+33%league 47%
Fouls26.4league 24.5
Penalties0.28league 0.36
Home wins61%league 48%
Girona1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L7 Dec 25A · Elche0–33
Real Sociedad1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W28 Feb 26A · Mallorca1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Girona35 games · scored 37 · conceded 52
5
4
0-15
5
7
16-30
6
7
31-45
1
14
46-60
8
8
61-75
12
12
76-90
Real Sociedad35 games · scored 54 · conceded 55
3
8
0-15
9
7
16-30
10
11
31-45
10
11
46-60
8
4
61-75
14
14
76-90
Girona10 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
5
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 17 · conceded 17
2
4
0-15
5
4
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
