Girona
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Girona41.7%fair odds 2.40
Draw27.8%fair odds 3.60
Sevilla30.5%fair odds 3.28
Expected goals1.39 – 1.16total 2.55
Likeliest score1–113.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Sevilla
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Girona ↓ · Sevilla → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Girona goals, columns Sevilla goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.2%7.55
- 1–010.2%9.79
- 2–18.8%11.40
- 0–08.5%11.81
- 0–18.4%11.97
- 2–07.6%13.18
- 1–27.3%13.75
- 0–25.2%19.18
- 2–25.1%19.72
- 3–14.1%24.52
Winning margin
7.5%
Girona by 3+
fair 13.41
12.6%
Girona by 2
fair 7.95
21.7%
Girona by 1
fair 4.61
27.8%
Draw
fair 3.60
17.9%
Sevilla by 1
fair 5.60
8.6%
Sevilla by 2
fair 11.57
4.0%
Sevilla by 3+
fair 25.19
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
19%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
Girona goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
Sevilla goals
31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 41.7% | 42.3% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 27.8% | 26.9% | +0.8 pp |
| Sevilla win | 30.5% | 30.7% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 46.9% | 50.3% | -3.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 52.2% | 54.8% | -2.6 pp |
| Expected goals Girona | 1.39 | 1.47 | -0.07 |
| Expected goals Sevilla | 1.16 | 1.22 | -0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Girona win41.7%2.40
- Draw27.8%3.60
- Sevilla win30.5%3.28
- Double chance Girona or draw69.5%1.44
- Double chance Girona or Sevilla72.2%1.38
- Double chance Sevilla or draw58.3%1.72
- Draw no bet Girona57.8%1.73
- Draw no bet Sevilla42.2%2.37
Goals
- Over 0.591.5%1.09
- Over 1.573.0%1.37
- Over 2.546.9%2.13
- Over 3.525.3%3.95
- Over 4.511.6%8.64
- Under 1.527.0%3.70
- Under 2.553.1%1.88
- Under 3.574.7%1.34
Both teams to score
- Yes52.2%1.92
- No47.8%2.09
- Yes and over 2.539.0%2.57
- Girona win and yes18.7%5.34
- Draw and yes19.3%5.18
- Sevilla win and yes14.2%7.06
Team goals
- Girona over 0.575.2%1.33
- Girona over 1.540.6%2.46
- Girona over 2.516.5%6.05
- Sevilla over 0.568.5%1.46
- Sevilla over 1.532.1%3.11
- Sevilla over 2.511.1%9.00
- Girona clean sheet31.5%3.18
- Sevilla clean sheet24.8%4.03
- Girona win to nil23.0%4.35
- Sevilla win to nil16.3%6.13
Handicap
- Girona −1.520.0%4.99
- Girona −2.57.5%13.41
- Sevilla +1.580.0%1.25
- Sevilla +2.592.5%1.08
- Sevilla −1.512.6%7.93
- Girona +1.587.4%1.14
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored25
Favourite won52.0%
Avg chance given to result42.5%
1X2 Brier0.560
Over 2.5 called right60.0%
BTTS called right64.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 4 | 38.1% | 25.0% |
| 40–50% | 8 | 44.5% | 37.5% |
| 50–60% | 6 | 53.1% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 65.9% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 72.9% | 66.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 25 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 25 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.