Girona vs Sevilla – 30 Aug 2025

La Liga Gameweek 3 Sat, Aug 30 · 18:30 Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Girona

Girona 20th · 0 pts · 2 played LL

0–2Full time

Sevilla 18th · 0 pts · 2 played LL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Girona were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Girona had 6 days of rest, Sevilla 4.9 and had to travel 909 km.

Away travel909 kmRest days6 · 4.9Matches / 14d1 · 2

Girona42%

Draw28%

Sevilla30%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.16

Girona42%

Draw27%

Sevilla31%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.22

Girona42%

Draw28%

Sevilla30%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.16

Girona35%

Draw28%

Sevilla37%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.30

Girona42%

Draw27%

Sevilla31%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.22

Over 2.5 47% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Girona)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainMiguel Angel Ortiz Arias

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 26

Team strength

Girona

Sevilla

41 L90 StrengthIn forecast 43

45 Current StrengthIn forecast 50

49 AttackIn forecast 48

64 DefenceIn forecast 57

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Girona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sevilla

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Girona

Sevilla

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

4.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50

0.36 xGVia Att/Def 0.72

2.74 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.99

+0.14 Goals minus xGContext +0.78

50% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

6.00 ShotsContext 12.00

2.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

33% On target shareContext 38%

3.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

51% Box shareContext 75%

8% ConversionContext 13%

— OffsidesContext 6.00

16.50 Shots allowedContext 11.00

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

3.00 BlocksContext 4.50

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext —

36% Save rateContext 67%

47% PossessionIn forecast 63%

426 PassesContext 500

361 Accurate passesContext 420

85% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.34 Team ratingContext 6.70

8.00 FoulsContext 11.00

12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 16.00

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.50 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

2.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

0.84 xGVia Att/Def 1.18

1.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.14

-0.04 Goals minus xGContext -0.08

70% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

8.90 ShotsContext 13.10

4.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

42% On target shareContext 34%

5.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.70

56% Box shareContext 67%

9% ConversionContext 8%

2.71 OffsidesContext 2.70

13.60 Shots allowedContext 10.70

5.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

2.80 BlocksContext 2.90

3.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

63% Save rateContext 60%

54% PossessionIn forecast 50%

475 PassesContext 414

414 Accurate passesContext 344

87% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.84

12.60 FoulsContext 13.80

11.90 Fouls sufferedContext 12.20

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.30

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Girona

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km669 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Sevilla

Rest4.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel909 km1,406 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Girona	Sevilla
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6La Liga 2025-2026, 24 Aug	4.9La Liga 2025-2026, 25 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	909 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	669 km	1,406 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	1 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	14.8	13.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Girona Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13P. Gazzaniga(G)

24Álex Moreno 5David López 12Vitor Reis 4Arnau Martínez

20A. Witsel 23Iván Martín

33Joel Roca 11T. Lemar 10Y. Asprilla

7C. Stuani

Sevilla Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13Ø. Nyland(G)

12G. Suazo 4Kike Salas 32A. López Gallo 2J. Carmona Navarro

6N. Gudelj 18L. Agoumé

17Alfon González 11R. Vargas 21C. Ejuke

7Isaac Romero

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Girona Absences are shown before kick-off

Sevilla Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Girona+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Sevilla+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Girona · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 3.00

Sevilla · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

5 Girona wins0 draws1 Sevilla wins

Goals per game2.33 – 0.83 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 0%

18 Jan 2025Girona1–2Sevilla
1 Sep 2024Sevilla0–2Girona
21 Jan 2024Girona5–1Sevilla
26 Aug 2023Sevilla1–2Girona
1 May 2023Sevilla0–2Girona
14 Jan 2023Girona2–1Sevilla

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Girona	Sevilla	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	1.50
Conceded per game	4.00	2.50
Match goals	4.50	4.00	2.55
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	47%
Over 3.5	100%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	100%	52%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	50%	0%
Games	2	2

	Girona	Sevilla	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	1.50
Conceded per game	4.00	2.50
Match goals	4.50	4.00	2.55
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	47%
Over 3.5	100%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	100%	52%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	50%	0%
Games	2	2

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Girona	Sevilla	League
Corners
Corners won	1.50	3.00
Corners conceded	5.50	6.50
Match total	7.00	9.50	9.00
Over 8.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2
Over 9.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2
Over 10.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2
Cards
Cards	1.50	2.00
Opponent cards	1.00	1.50
Match total	2.50	3.50	3.78
Over 3.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2

	Girona	Sevilla	League
Corners
Corners won	3.30	3.90
Corners conceded	5.50	4.30
Match total	8.80	8.20	9.00
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	10% 1/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	10% 1/10
Cards
Cards	1.40	2.60
Opponent cards	1.80	2.50
Match total	3.20	5.10	3.78
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias Spain · 26 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.77league 3.48

Red cards0.27league 0.24

Cards 5+46%league 28%

Fouls24.3league 24.0

Penalties0.23league 0.36

Home wins35%league 48%

Girona2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 1

L18 May 25A · Real Sociedad2–33
W22 Oct 23H · Almeria5–21

Sevilla4 with this referee

Record0-1-3 Cards · opp.3.5 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds2

D20 Apr 25H · Alaves1–12
L15 May 24H · Cadiz0–16
L26 Nov 23A · Real Sociedad1–23
L29 Sep 23A · Barcelona0–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.