Girona vs Villarreal – 6 Apr 2026

La Liga Gameweek 30 Mon, Apr 6 · 20:00 Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Girona

Girona 14th · 34 pts · 29 played DLDWL

1–0Full time

Villarreal 3rd · 58 pts · 29 played WLWDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Villarreal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 48). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Girona. Girona had 16.1 days of rest, Villarreal 17 and had to travel 335 km.

Away travel335 kmRest days16.1 · 17Matches / 14d0 · 0

Girona33%

Draw28%

Villarreal40%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.38

Girona31%

Draw27%

Villarreal42%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.47

Girona33%

Draw27%

Villarreal40%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.39

Girona26%

Draw27%

Villarreal47%

Expected goals 1.10 – 1.55

Girona33%

Draw26%

Villarreal41%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.52

Over 2.5 49% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Girona)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainAdrian Cordero Vega

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.33
Matches 18

Team strength

Girona

Villarreal

48 L90 StrengthIn forecast 69

45 Current StrengthIn forecast 65

49 AttackIn forecast 76

64 DefenceIn forecast 73

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Girona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Villarreal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Girona

Villarreal

1.07 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.86

1.52 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.17

1.17 xGVia Att/Def 1.53

1.56 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.12

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext +0.33

72% Scored inContext 86%

17% Clean sheetsContext 28%

10.21 ShotsContext 12.03

4.07 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.59

39% On target shareContext 38%

6.69 Shots in the boxContext 8.41

65% Box shareContext 69%

11% ConversionContext 16%

2.55 OffsidesContext 2.81

15.07 Shots allowedContext 11.97

5.04 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.85

3.55 BlocksContext 4.00

3.68 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.69

73% Save rateContext 69%

50% PossessionIn forecast 44%

456 PassesContext 390

390 Accurate passesContext 321

86% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.89

10.62 FoulsContext 11.97

14.21 Fouls sufferedContext 11.97

2.03 Yellow cardsContext 2.24

0.14 Red cardsContext 0.07

This league season, per match · 29 and 29 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.49 xGVia Att/Def 1.36

1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27

-0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.34

80% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

12.10 ShotsContext 10.70

5.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40

39% On target shareContext 41%

8.20 Shots in the boxContext 7.70

69% Box shareContext 69%

11% ConversionContext 16%

2.63 OffsidesContext 1.78

14.10 Shots allowedContext 11.40

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.56

3.70 BlocksContext 2.80

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25

83% Save rateContext 67%

54% PossessionIn forecast 43%

505 PassesContext 367

438 Accurate passesContext 296

87% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.75

10.70 FoulsContext 11.80

13.70 Fouls sufferedContext 12.50

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Girona

Rest16.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Villarreal

Rest17 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel335 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Girona	Villarreal
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	16.1La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Mar	17La Liga 2025-2026, 20 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	335 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 2	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	4	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Girona Confirmed XI

4-5-1

13P. Gazzaniga(G)

24Álex Moreno 17D. Blind 12Vitor Reis 4Arnau Martínez

18A. Ounahi 20A. Witsel 8Fran Beltrán 23Iván Martín 15V. Tsyhankov

19V. Vanat

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Villarreal Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1Luíz Júnior(G)

24A. Pedraza Sag 12Renato Veiga 6Pau Navarro 15S. Mouriño

20Alberto Moleiro 18P. Gueye 14Santi Comesaña 19N. Pépé

9G. Mikautadze 7Gerard Moreno

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Girona Scores -0.03 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Villarreal Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Girona-0.2 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Villarreal+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Girona · Home 1.36points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 5-4-5
Scored: 1.14
Conceded: 1.50

Villarreal · Away 1.50points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 6-3-5
Scored: 1.43
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Girona	Villarreal
Osasuna	L 0–1 AW 1–0 H	D 2–2 AW 2–1 H
Athletic Club	W 3–0 HD 1–1 A	W 1–0 H
Levante	D 1–1 AL 0–4 H	W 1–0 A
Celta Vigo	L 1–2 HD 1–1 A	D 1–1 A
Alaves	D 2–2 AW 1–0 H	D 1–1 AW 3–1 H
Barcelona	W 2–1 HL 1–2 A	L 1–4 AL 0–2 H
Sevilla	D 1–1 AL 0–2 H	W 2–1 A
Oviedo	L 0–1 AD 3–3 H	W 2–0 H
Getafe	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A	L 1–2 AW 2–0 H
Espanyol	W 2–0 AD 0–0 H	W 4–1 HW 2–0 A
Mallorca	W 2–1 A	W 2–1 H
Atletico Madrid	L 0–3 H	L 0–2 A
Real Sociedad	W 2–1 A	W 3–1 HW 3–2 A
Elche	L 0–3 A	W 2–1 HW 3–1 A
Real Madrid	D 1–1 H	L 0–2 HL 1–3 A
Real Betis	D 1–1 A	L 0–2 AD 2–2 H
Valencia	W 2–1 H	W 2–1 HW 2–0 A
Rayo Vallecano	L 1–3 H	W 4–0 H
Points	34 of 84 · 1.21 per game	55 of 84 · 1.96 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

1 Girona wins1 draws5 Villarreal wins

Goals per game0.71 – 1.86 Over 2.557% Both scored43% Clean sheets0% · 57%

24 Aug 2025Villarreal5–0Girona
10 May 2025Girona0–1Villarreal
1 Dec 2024Villarreal2–2Girona
14 May 2024Girona0–1Villarreal
27 Sep 2023Villarreal1–2Girona
20 May 2023Girona1–2Villarreal

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Girona	Villarreal	Forecast
Scored per game	1.07	1.86
Conceded per game	1.52	1.17
Match goals	2.59	3.03	2.62
Over 1.5	83%	93%
Over 2.5	52%	59%	49%
Over 3.5	17%	38%
Both teams scored	59%	59%	54%
Clean sheets	17%	28%
Failed to score	28%	14%
Games	29	29

	Girona	Villarreal	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.70
Conceded per game	1.00	1.50
Match goals	2.30	3.20	2.62
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	40%	70%	49%
Over 3.5	10%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	80%	54%
Clean sheets	20%	10%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Girona	Villarreal	League
Corners
Corners won	4.26	3.85
Corners conceded	5.00	4.62
Match total	9.26	8.47	9.51
Over 8.5	52% 14/27	42% 11/26
Over 9.5	41% 11/27	35% 9/26
Over 10.5	37% 10/27	27% 7/26
Cards
Cards	2.24	2.34
Opponent cards	1.83	2.14
Match total	4.07	4.48	4.51
Over 3.5	38% 11/29	66% 19/29
Over 4.5	31% 9/29	48% 14/29

	Girona	Villarreal	League
Corners
Corners won	4.30	3.00
Corners conceded	5.50	4.60
Match total	9.80	7.60	9.51
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	10% 1/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	2.20
Opponent cards	2.50	2.30
Match total	4.70	4.50	4.51
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Adrian Cordero Vega Spain · 18 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.22league 4.25

Red cards0.17league 0.28

Cards 5+50%league 47%

Fouls24.9league 24.5

Penalties0.33league 0.36

Home wins78%league 48%

Girona3 with this referee

Record1-2-0 Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.7 Pens for · against0 · 1

D23 Feb 26A · Alaves2–22
W8 Nov 25H · Alaves1–00
D14 Sep 25A · Celta Vigo1–13

Villarreal1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W9 Feb 26H · Espanyol4–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.