GO Ahead Eagles
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
GO Ahead Eagles64.1%fair odds 1.56
Draw19.7%fair odds 5.07
ADO Den Haag16.2%fair odds 6.17
Expected goals2.30 – 1.09total 3.40
Likeliest score2–19.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
ADO Den Haag
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| GO Ahead Eagles ↓ · ADO Den Haag → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are GO Ahead Eagles goals, columns ADO Den Haag goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–19.7%10.30
- 2–08.9%11.24
- 1–18.9%11.26
- 3–17.5%13.41
- 1–07.3%13.74
- 3–06.8%14.63
- 2–25.3%18.87
- 1–24.6%21.74
- 4–14.3%23.27
- 3–24.1%24.57
Winning margin
22.9%
GO Ahead Eagles by 3+
fair 4.37
19.1%
GO Ahead Eagles by 2
fair 5.22
22.0%
GO Ahead Eagles by 1
fair 4.54
19.7%
Draw
fair 5.07
10.2%
ADO Den Haag by 1
fair 9.80
4.3%
ADO Den Haag by 2
fair 23.29
1.7%
ADO Den Haag by 3+
fair 58.31
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
10%1
20%2
22%3
19%4
25%5+
GO Ahead Eagles goals
10%0
23%1
27%2
20%3
20%4+
ADO Den Haag goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GO Ahead Eagles win | 64.1% | 64.0% | +0.1 pp |
| Draw | 19.7% | 19.8% | -0.1 pp |
| ADO Den Haag win | 16.2% | 16.2% | -0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 65.9% | 65.6% | +0.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 60.2% | 59.9% | +0.3 pp |
| Expected goals GO Ahead Eagles | 2.30 | 2.29 | +0.01 |
| Expected goals ADO Den Haag | 1.09 | 1.08 | +0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- GO Ahead Eagles win64.1%1.56
- Draw19.7%5.07
- ADO Den Haag win16.2%6.17
- Double chance GO Ahead Eagles or draw83.8%1.19
- Double chance GO Ahead Eagles or ADO Den Haag80.3%1.25
- Double chance ADO Den Haag or draw35.9%2.78
- Draw no bet GO Ahead Eagles79.8%1.25
- Draw no bet ADO Den Haag20.2%4.95
Goals
- Over 0.596.2%1.04
- Over 1.585.7%1.17
- Over 2.565.9%1.52
- Over 3.544.1%2.27
- Over 4.525.5%3.92
- Under 1.514.3%7.00
- Under 2.534.1%2.94
- Under 3.555.9%1.79
Both teams to score
- Yes60.2%1.66
- No39.8%2.52
- Yes and over 2.551.4%1.95
- GO Ahead Eagles win and yes34.3%2.92
- Draw and yes15.9%6.28
- ADO Den Haag win and yes10.0%9.98
Team goals
- GO Ahead Eagles over 0.590.0%1.11
- GO Ahead Eagles over 1.567.0%1.49
- GO Ahead Eagles over 2.540.5%2.47
- ADO Den Haag over 0.566.4%1.51
- ADO Den Haag over 1.529.8%3.36
- ADO Den Haag over 2.59.8%10.22
- GO Ahead Eagles clean sheet33.6%2.98
- ADO Den Haag clean sheet10.0%10.01
- GO Ahead Eagles win to nil29.8%3.36
- ADO Den Haag win to nil6.2%16.17
Handicap
- GO Ahead Eagles −1.542.0%2.38
- GO Ahead Eagles −2.522.9%4.37
- ADO Den Haag +1.558.0%1.73
- ADO Den Haag +2.577.1%1.30
- ADO Den Haag −1.56.0%16.64
- GO Ahead Eagles +1.594.0%1.06
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored21
Favourite won52.4%
Avg chance given to result39.0%
1X2 Brier0.643
Over 2.5 called right71.4%
BTTS called right61.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 3 | 38.9% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 4 | 44.4% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 9 | 56.4% | 66.7% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 65.8% | 50.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 84.4% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 21 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
Latest results
- ✗Heerenveen 0–2 PEC Zwolle61·21·17
- ✗Sparta Rotterdam 3–3 Utrecht39·25·36
- ✓Fortuna Sittard 0–2 AZ Alkmaar23·23·54
- ✗Ajax 2–2 Heerenveen60·22·19
- ✓Twente 3–1 PEC Zwolle68·19·13
- ✗Feyenoord 2–2 GO Ahead Eagles69·18·14
- ✓ADO Den Haag 1–4 Groningen33·25·42
- ✓Fortuna Sittard 3–1 Cambuur47·25·28
- ✓Excelsior 1–2 PSV Eindhoven23·22·55
- ✗Utrecht 1–4 AZ Alkmaar42·25·34
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 21 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.