GO Ahead Eagles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
GO Ahead Eagles were slight favourites.
GO Ahead Eagles were the stronger side on L90 Strength (29 vs 16). GO Ahead Eagles had 3.1 days of rest, Excelsior 7.3 and had to travel 121 km.
Away travel121 kmRest days3.1 · 7.3Matches / 14d2 · 1
GO Ahead Eagles55%
Draw25%
Excelsior21%
GO Ahead Eagles55%
Draw24%
Excelsior21%
GO Ahead Eagles56%
Draw24%
Excelsior20%
GO Ahead Eagles47%
Draw26%
Excelsior27%
GO Ahead Eagles54%
Draw25%
Excelsior21%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Deventer)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJannick van der Laan
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 24
Team strength
GO Ahead Eagles
Excelsior
29
L90 StrengthIn forecast
16
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
29
AttackIn forecast
21
17
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisExcelsior
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GO Ahead EaglesExcelsior
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.89
1.78
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.89
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.00
+0.43
Goals minus xGContext
-0.30
89%
Scored inContext
78%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
12.11
ShotsContext
11.78
5.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
44%
On target shareContext
34%
9.57
Shots in the boxContext
7.11
68%
Box shareContext
60%
14%
ConversionContext
8%
2.17
OffsidesContext
1.00
19.67
Shots allowedContext
17.67
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.44
7.38
BlocksContext
5.11
4.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.22
72%
Save rateContext
70%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
428
PassesContext
354
356
Accurate passesContext
268
83%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.72
9.00
FoulsContext
13.67
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.44
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.22
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.68
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.00
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
-0.29
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.30
ShotsContext
11.80
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
46%
On target shareContext
36%
9.11
Shots in the boxContext
7.11
70%
Box shareContext
60%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
2.67
OffsidesContext
1.29
17.50
Shots allowedContext
17.30
5.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.20
6.25
BlocksContext
5.10
4.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.00
77%
Save rateContext
69%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
433
PassesContext
357
363
Accurate passesContext
271
84%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.76
10.10
FoulsContext
13.00
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.40
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
GO Ahead Eagles
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km204 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Excelsior
Rest7.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel121 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| GO Ahead Eagles |
Excelsior |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 23 Oct | 7.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 19 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 121 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 204 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
GO Ahead Eagles
Confirmed XI
22J. De Busser(G)
5D. James
4J. Kramer
21M. Meulensteen
2M. Deijl
6C. Twigt
24K. Goudmijn
34Y. Rahmouni
17M. Suray
9M. Smit
18R. Margaret
Excelsior
Confirmed XI
1S. van Gassel(G)
12A. Zagré
3R. Meissen
4C. Widell
2Ilias Bronkhorst
6A. Carlén
23I. Yegoian
8M. Tielemans
11G. de Regt
9S. Włodarczyk
22S. Mitrović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences GO Ahead Eagles
Scores -0.09 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Excelsior
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- GO Ahead Eagles-1.2 pp
- Draw+0.6 pp
- Excelsior+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
GO Ahead Eagles · Home
1.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Excelsior · Away
0.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | GO Ahead Eagles | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | D 1–1 H | L 0–5 A |
| FC Volendam | W 3–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Heerenveen | D 2–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 0–3 H | L 0–1 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | D 2–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 6 of 18 · 1.00 per game | 6 of 18 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 GO Ahead Eagles wins1 draws0 Excelsior wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 16 Dec 2023Excelsior1–1GO Ahead Eagles
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| GO Ahead Eagles | Excelsior | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 0.89 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.78 | 1.89 | |
| Match goals | 3.44 | 2.78 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 78% | 67% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 56% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 22% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| GO Ahead Eagles | Excelsior | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.89 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.89 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.78 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 67% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 56% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 22% | |
| Games | 10 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| GO Ahead Eagles | Excelsior | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.56 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.44 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 8.23 | 9.88 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 89% 8/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.11 | 1.44 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.11 | 1.44 | |
| Match total | 3.22 | 2.88 | 3.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 4/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 22% 2/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| GO Ahead Eagles | Excelsior | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.90 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 11.30 | 9.50 | 9.88 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 2.70 | 3.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jannick van der Laan Netherlands · 24 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.67league 3.38
Red cards0.08league 0.20
Cards 5+33%league 34%
Fouls23.5league 22.4
Penalties0.21league 0.25
Home wins50%league 47%
GO Ahead Eagles2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 0.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L25 Feb 24A · Twente0–32
- W2 Sep 23H · Heerenveen3–23
Excelsior1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.0.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L22 Oct 23H · PEC Zwolle2–40
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
GO Ahead Eagles8 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
3
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
6
31-45
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Excelsior9 games · scored 8 · conceded 17
5
1
0-15
3
16-30
3
31-45
3
46-60
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles9 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
3
3
0-15
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Excelsior10 games · scored 9 · conceded 19
5
1
0-15
3
16-30
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
