GO Ahead Eagles
Attack—
Defense risk—
GO Ahead Eagles
13th · 19 pts · 17 played
LDDLD
First leg2–2
2–2Full time
Fortuna Sittard
11th · 21 pts · 17 played
DDLLW
Our take
GO Ahead Eagles were slight favourites.
GO Ahead Eagles were the stronger side on L90 Strength (25 vs 18). GO Ahead Eagles had 21 days of rest, Fortuna Sittard 20.9 and had to travel 141 km.
Away travel141 kmRest days21 · 20.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
GO Ahead Eagles50%
Draw25%
Fortuna Sittard24%
GO Ahead Eagles50%
Draw26%
Fortuna Sittard24%
GO Ahead Eagles50%
Draw25%
Fortuna Sittard24%
GO Ahead Eagles43%
Draw27%
Fortuna Sittard31%
GO Ahead Eagles50%
Draw26%
Fortuna Sittard24%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Deventer)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsAlex Bos
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 31
Team strength
GO Ahead EaglesFortuna Sittard
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
29
AttackIn forecast
19
17
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFortuna Sittard
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GO Ahead EaglesFortuna Sittard
1.53
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.47
1.71
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.71
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
1.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.54
+0.40
Goals minus xGContext
+0.26
82%
Scored inContext
82%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
10.18
ShotsContext
13.53
4.65
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.94
46%
On target shareContext
34%
7.86
Shots in the boxContext
8.65
70%
Box shareContext
63%
15%
ConversionContext
11%
1.86
OffsidesContext
1.93
18.24
Shots allowedContext
13.53
5.76
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.29
6.47
BlocksContext
3.88
4.35
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.76
76%
Save rateContext
71%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
427
PassesContext
369
350
Accurate passesContext
286
82%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.76
8.71
FoulsContext
13.59
10.53
Fouls sufferedContext
11.12
1.41
Yellow cardsContext
2.41
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
0.84
xGVia Att/Def
1.33
2.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
60%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
7.50
ShotsContext
14.50
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
47%
On target shareContext
34%
5.33
Shots in the boxContext
9.30
67%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
1.90
OffsidesContext
1.90
17.30
Shots allowedContext
13.00
6.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
5.11
BlocksContext
3.78
4.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
73%
Save rateContext
71%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
427
PassesContext
355
345
Accurate passesContext
275
81%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.75
8.40
FoulsContext
14.00
8.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
GO Ahead Eagles
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fortuna Sittard
Rest20.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel141 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| GO Ahead Eagles |
Fortuna Sittard |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21Eredivisie 2025-2026, 21 Dec | 20.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 21 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 141 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
GO Ahead Eagles
Confirmed XI
22J. De Busser(G)
5D. James
4J. Kramer
21M. Meulensteen
2M. Deijl
24K. Goudmijn
8H. Linthorst
17M. Suray
7J. Breum
19J. Slory
9M. Smit
Fortuna Sittard
Confirmed XI
31M. Branderhorst(G)
28J. Hubner
4S. Adewoye
44Iván Márquez
6S. van Ottele
12Ivo Pinto
7K. Peterson
18D. Limnios
21N. Kasanwirjo
52M. Ihattaren
9K. Sierhuis
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences GO Ahead Eagles
Absences are shown before kick-off
Fortuna Sittard
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- GO Ahead Eagles+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Fortuna Sittard+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
GO Ahead Eagles · Home
1.63points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-1
- Scored
- 1.63
- Conceded
- 1.25
Fortuna Sittard · Away
0.50points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-6
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | GO Ahead Eagles | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| Groningen | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Twente | L 0–2 A | L 2–3 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | D 2–2 A | W 4–3 H |
| Utrecht | D 2–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Heracles | L 2–4 A | D 1–1 H |
| Feyenoord | W 2–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| NAC Breda | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Excelsior | W 2–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–2 A | L 2–5 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | D 1–1 H | W 3–2 H |
| Telstar | L 2–4 A | W 3–1 A |
| PEC Zwolle | W 2–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| FC Volendam | W 3–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Heerenveen | D 2–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 0–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| Ajax | D 2–2 H | L 1–3 H |
| Points | 18 of 48 · 1.13 per game | 20 of 48 · 1.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 GO Ahead Eagles wins1 draws1 Fortuna Sittard wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00
Over 2.575%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets50% · 25%
- 8 Aug 2025Fortuna Sittard2–2GO Ahead Eagles
- 10 Jan 2025Fortuna Sittard0–3GO Ahead Eagles
- 11 Aug 2024GO Ahead Eagles0–2Fortuna Sittard
- 22 Sep 2023GO Ahead Eagles3–0Fortuna Sittard
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| GO Ahead Eagles | Fortuna Sittard | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.53 | 1.47 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.71 | 1.71 | |
| Match goals | 3.24 | 3.18 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 94% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 53% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 41% | 41% | |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 65% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 18% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| GO Ahead Eagles | Fortuna Sittard | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.00 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| GO Ahead Eagles | Fortuna Sittard | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.82 | 5.44 | |
| Match total | 10.82 | 10.69 | 10.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 82% 14/17 | 81% 13/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 65% 11/17 | 63% 10/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 53% 9/17 | 56% 9/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.53 | 2.47 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.82 | 1.59 | |
| Match total | 3.35 | 4.06 | 3.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 41% 7/17 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 18% 3/17 | 41% 7/17 | |
| GO Ahead Eagles | Fortuna Sittard | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.90 | 6.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 11.10 | 10.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 4.30 | 3.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alex Bos Netherlands · 31 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.42league 3.34
Red cards0.32league 0.22
Cards 5+26%league 32%
Fouls22.9league 21.7
Penalties0.35league 0.30
Home wins45%league 46%
GO Ahead Eagles5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.1.2 · 1.2
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L18 May 25A · Waalwijk3–51
- W7 Dec 24H · NEC Nijmegen5–02
- L11 Aug 24H · Fortuna Sittard0–21
- D16 Dec 23A · Excelsior1–12
- W7 Oct 23H · Heracles4–00
Fortuna Sittard5 with this referee
Record3-0-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L19 Oct 25A · Excelsior0–13
- L12 Apr 25H · Feyenoord0–22
- W22 Dec 24A · Utrecht5–23
- W11 Aug 24A · GO Ahead Eagles2–01
- W2 Dec 23H · Vitesse3–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
GO Ahead Eagles16 games · scored 24 · conceded 29
5
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
6
9
31-45
1
6
46-60
4
3
61-75
6
5
76-90
Fortuna Sittard17 games · scored 25 · conceded 29
6
3
0-15
1
7
16-30
3
6
31-45
3
5
46-60
4
4
61-75
8
4
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles10 games · scored 10 · conceded 21
3
4
0-15
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
6
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
Fortuna Sittard10 games · scored 13 · conceded 17
3
3
0-15
1
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
