GO Ahead Eagles vs Fortuna Sittard – 11 Jan 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Jan 11 · 13:30 De Adelaarshorst, Deventer

GO Ahead Eagles 13th · 19 pts · 17 played LDDLD

First leg2–2 2–2Full time

Fortuna Sittard 11th · 21 pts · 17 played DDLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

GO Ahead Eagles50.5%fair odds 1.98

Draw25.2%fair odds 3.96

Fortuna Sittard24.3%fair odds 4.12

Expected goals1.70 – 1.11total 2.81

Likeliest score1–112.0%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

GO Ahead Eagles

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Fortuna Sittard

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

GO Ahead Eagles ↓ · Fortuna Sittard →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6.6	6.1	3.7	1.4	0.4	0.1
1	9.6	12.0	6.3	2.3	0.6	0.1
2	8.7	9.6	5.4	2.0	0.6	0.1
3	4.9	5.5	3.0	1.1	0.3	0.1
4	2.1	2.3	1.3	0.5	0.1	0.0
5	0.7	0.8	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0
6+	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are GO Ahead Eagles goals, columns Fortuna Sittard goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

1–112.0%8.35
2–19.6%10.36
1–09.6%10.37
2–08.7%11.51
0–06.6%15.06
1–26.3%15.83
0–16.1%16.38
3–15.5%18.33
2–25.4%18.66
3–04.9%20.35

Winning margin

12.0% GO Ahead Eagles by 3+ fair 8.32

15.6% GO Ahead Eagles by 2 fair 6.41

22.8% GO Ahead Eagles by 1 fair 4.38

25.2% Draw fair 3.96

14.7% Fortuna Sittard by 1 fair 6.78

6.7% Fortuna Sittard by 2 fair 14.95

2.9% Fortuna Sittard by 3+ fair 35.02

Goal distribution

Total goals

7%0

16%1

24%2

22%3

16%4

15%5+

GO Ahead Eagles goals

18%0

31%1

26%2

15%3

9%4+

Fortuna Sittard goals

33%0

37%1

20%2

8%3

3%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

	LOAD90	EloLambda	Change
GO Ahead Eagles win	50.5%	49.8%	+0.6 pp
Draw	25.2%	25.7%	-0.5 pp
Fortuna Sittard win	24.3%	24.4%	-0.1 pp
Over 2.5	53.2%	51.4%	+1.8 pp
Both teams score	55.4%	54.1%	+1.3 pp
Expected goals GO Ahead Eagles	1.70	1.65	+0.05
Expected goals Fortuna Sittard	1.11	1.09	+0.02

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

GO Ahead Eagles win50.5%1.98
Draw25.2%3.96
Fortuna Sittard win24.3%4.12
Double chance GO Ahead Eagles or draw75.7%1.32
Double chance GO Ahead Eagles or Fortuna Sittard74.8%1.34
Double chance Fortuna Sittard or draw49.5%2.02
Draw no bet GO Ahead Eagles67.5%1.48
Draw no bet Fortuna Sittard32.5%3.08

Goals

Over 0.593.4%1.07
Over 1.577.6%1.29
Over 2.553.2%1.88
Over 3.531.0%3.23
Over 4.515.3%6.52
Under 1.522.4%4.47
Under 2.546.8%2.14
Under 3.569.0%1.45

Both teams to score

Yes55.4%1.81
No44.6%2.24
Yes and over 2.543.4%2.30
GO Ahead Eagles win and yes24.2%4.14
Draw and yes18.6%5.38
Fortuna Sittard win and yes12.6%7.94

Team goals

GO Ahead Eagles over 0.581.7%1.22
GO Ahead Eagles over 1.550.6%1.98
GO Ahead Eagles over 2.524.2%4.14
Fortuna Sittard over 0.567.1%1.49
Fortuna Sittard over 1.530.5%3.28
Fortuna Sittard over 2.510.2%9.83
GO Ahead Eagles clean sheet32.9%3.04
Fortuna Sittard clean sheet18.3%5.45
GO Ahead Eagles win to nil26.3%3.80
Fortuna Sittard win to nil11.7%8.55

Handicap

GO Ahead Eagles −1.527.6%3.62
GO Ahead Eagles −2.512.0%8.32
Fortuna Sittard +1.572.4%1.38
Fortuna Sittard +2.588.0%1.14
Fortuna Sittard −1.59.5%10.48
GO Ahead Eagles +1.590.5%1.11

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored157 Favourite won52.2% Avg chance given to result41.9% 1X2 Brier0.570 Over 2.5 called right63.1% BTTS called right60.5%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chance	Matches	Predicted	Actually won
30–40%	31	38.0%	32.3%
40–50%	54	44.8%	44.4%
50–60%	38	55.4%	52.6%
60–70%	17	64.1%	70.6%
70–80%	11	74.6%	90.9%
80%+	6	84.3%	100.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 134 of 157 scored matches.

	LOAD90	Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)	0.5722	0.5614
Avg chance given to result	41.7%	43.4%
Favourite won	51.5%	54.5%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 134 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Latest results

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✓AZ Alkmaar 1–0 FC Volendam71·18·11
✓FC Volendam 0–1 Sparta Rotterdam36·27·37
✗Fortuna Sittard 4–3 AZ Alkmaar23·24·52
✗GO Ahead Eagles 1–1 Groningen42·26·32
✗Feyenoord 1–1 Twente52·25·23
✓Utrecht 1–2 PSV Eindhoven18·22·60

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 157 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.