GO Ahead Eagles
Attack—
Defense risk—
GO Ahead Eagles
14th · 23 pts · 21 played
DDDDD
First leg2–2
1–3Full time
Heerenveen
12th · 25 pts · 21 played
WDLDL
Our take
GO Ahead Eagles were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards GO Ahead Eagles. GO Ahead Eagles had 3.2 days of rest, Heerenveen 3.9 and had to travel 80 km.
Away travel80 kmRest days3.2 · 3.9Matches / 14d3 · 2
GO Ahead Eagles52%
Draw25%
Heerenveen23%
GO Ahead Eagles44%
Draw27%
Heerenveen29%
GO Ahead Eagles51%
Draw25%
Heerenveen24%
GO Ahead Eagles44%
Draw26%
Heerenveen29%
GO Ahead Eagles51%
Draw26%
Heerenveen23%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Deventer)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsRobin Hensgens
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.08
- Matches 25
Team strength
GO Ahead EaglesHeerenveen
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
31
29
AttackIn forecast
36
17
DefenceIn forecast
40
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHeerenveen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GO Ahead EaglesHeerenveen
1.52
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.52
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.71
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.61
1.70
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
+0.36
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
86%
Scored inContext
76%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.48
ShotsContext
14.95
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
44%
On target shareContext
34%
8.39
Shots in the boxContext
9.65
68%
Box shareContext
64%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
1.78
OffsidesContext
2.07
17.57
Shots allowedContext
10.81
5.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.62
6.11
BlocksContext
2.69
4.05
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
75%
Save rateContext
63%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
427
PassesContext
438
351
Accurate passesContext
352
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.79
9.29
FoulsContext
11.29
10.48
Fouls sufferedContext
10.57
1.62
Yellow cardsContext
1.52
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.83
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
80%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.10
ShotsContext
15.00
5.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.67
40%
On target shareContext
34%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.40
68%
Box shareContext
64%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
1.78
OffsidesContext
2.14
16.10
Shots allowedContext
11.40
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
5.10
BlocksContext
2.44
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
68%
Save rateContext
68%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
426
PassesContext
453
349
Accurate passesContext
367
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.74
9.50
FoulsContext
11.60
8.20
Fouls sufferedContext
8.70
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
GO Ahead Eagles
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km158 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Heerenveen
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel80 km211 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| GO Ahead Eagles |
Heerenveen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 23 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 8 Feb | 3.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 7 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 80 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 158 km | 211 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.7 | 3.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
GO Ahead Eagles
Confirmed XI
22J. De Busser(G)
26J. Dirksen
4J. Kramer
25G. van Zwam
2A. Sampsted
8H. Linthorst
21M. Meulensteen
23T. Baeten
7J. Breum
19J. Slory
16V. Edvardsen
Heerenveen
Confirmed XI
22B. Klaverboer(G)
19V. Zagaritis
3M. Willemsen
4S. Kersten
45O. Braude
6J. van Overeem
16M. Linday
7M. Rivera
10R. Meerveld
20J. Trenskow
18L. Nordås
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences GO Ahead Eagles
Absences are shown before kick-off
Heerenveen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- GO Ahead Eagles+1.3 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Heerenveen-0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
GO Ahead Eagles · Home
1.50points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-6-1
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 1.30
Heerenveen · Away
1.10points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-5
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.70
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | GO Ahead Eagles | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| Telstar | D 1–1 HL 2–4 A | W 3–2 A |
| FC Volendam | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Ajax | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Groningen | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Twente | L 0–2 A | L 0–5 AL 1–2 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | D 2–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| Utrecht | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Heracles | L 2–4 A | W 3–0 A |
| Feyenoord | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A |
| NAC Breda | L 0–1 A | D 3–3 H |
| Excelsior | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | D 1–1 H | W 3–2 H |
| PEC Zwolle | W 2–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 0–3 H | W 3–0 A |
| Points | 22 of 60 · 1.10 per game | 24 of 60 · 1.20 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
3 GO Ahead Eagles wins1 draws1 Heerenveen wins
Goals per game1.60 – 1.00
Over 2.540%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets40% · 20%
- 30 Aug 2025Heerenveen2–2GO Ahead Eagles
- 14 May 2025GO Ahead Eagles1–0Heerenveen
- 10 Nov 2024Heerenveen1–0GO Ahead Eagles
- 17 Feb 2024Heerenveen0–2GO Ahead Eagles
- 2 Sep 2023GO Ahead Eagles3–2Heerenveen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| GO Ahead Eagles | Heerenveen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.52 | 1.52 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.71 | |
| Match goals | 3.19 | 3.24 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 95% | 95% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 67% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 67% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 24% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| GO Ahead Eagles | Heerenveen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.00 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| GO Ahead Eagles | Heerenveen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.57 | 5.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.19 | 4.55 | |
| Match total | 10.76 | 10.45 | 10.26 |
| Over 8.5 | 81% 17/21 | 80% 16/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 14/21 | 55% 11/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 52% 11/21 | 45% 9/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.76 | 1.62 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.81 | 1.57 | |
| Match total | 3.57 | 3.19 | 3.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 9/21 | 38% 8/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 24% 5/21 | 19% 4/21 | |
| GO Ahead Eagles | Heerenveen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 6.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 10.44 | 10.26 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 2.60 | 3.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robin Hensgens Netherlands · 25 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.04league 3.37
Red cards0.20league 0.20
Cards 5+24%league 31%
Fouls21.9league 21.7
Penalties0.08league 0.26
Home wins40%league 43%
GO Ahead Eagles4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L23 Aug 25H · Sparta Rotterdam0–30
- W14 May 25H · Heerenveen1–01
- W16 Mar 25H · Willem II1–01
- D26 Nov 23A · NEC Nijmegen1–13
Heerenveen6 with this referee
Record4-0-2
Cards · opp.1.2 · 1.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds2
- W14 Dec 25A · Sparta Rotterdam3–02
- L13 Sep 25A · Feyenoord0–12
- L14 May 25A · GO Ahead Eagles0–10
- W19 Apr 25H · Almere City FC2–11
- W8 Dec 24A · Willem II2–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
GO Ahead Eagles20 games · scored 30 · conceded 35
6
5
0-15
2
3
16-30
7
10
31-45
2
6
46-60
5
4
61-75
8
7
76-90
Heerenveen21 games · scored 32 · conceded 36
2
3
0-15
4
8
16-30
8
5
31-45
5
6
46-60
5
5
61-75
8
9
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
3
4
0-15
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Heerenveen10 games · scored 13 · conceded 17
0-15
2
6
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
