Eredivisie Knockout phase Wed, Feb 11 · 17:45 De Adelaarshorst, Deventer
GO Ahead Eagles 14th · 23 pts · 21 played
First leg2–2 1–3Full time
Heerenveen 12th · 25 pts · 21 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
GO Ahead Eagles52.2%fair odds 1.92
Draw24.8%fair odds 4.04
Heerenveen23.1%fair odds 4.33
Expected goals1.75 – 1.09total 2.84
Likeliest score1–111.7%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

GO Ahead Eagles

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Heerenveen

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

GO Ahead Eagles ↓ · Heerenveen →0123456+
06.45.83.51.30.30.10.0
19.611.76.12.20.60.10.0
28.99.75.31.90.50.10.0
35.25.73.11.10.30.10.0
42.32.51.40.50.10.00.0
50.80.90.50.20.00.00.0
6+0.30.30.20.10.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are GO Ahead Eagles goals, columns Heerenveen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–111.7%8.52
  • 2–19.7%10.26
  • 1–09.6%10.39
  • 2–08.9%11.20
  • 0–06.4%15.55
  • 1–26.1%16.43
  • 0–15.8%17.28
  • 3–15.7%17.60
  • 2–25.3%18.79
  • 3–05.2%19.22

Winning margin

13.0% GO Ahead Eagles by 3+ fair 7.70
16.2% GO Ahead Eagles by 2 fair 6.19
23.0% GO Ahead Eagles by 1 fair 4.34
24.8% Draw fair 4.04
14.1% Heerenveen by 1 fair 7.07
6.3% Heerenveen by 2 fair 15.88
2.6% Heerenveen by 3+ fair 38.09

Goal distribution

Total goals

6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+

GO Ahead Eagles goals

17%0
30%1
27%2
16%3
10%4+

Heerenveen goals

34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
3%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
GO Ahead Eagles win 52.2% 51.5% +0.7 pp
Draw 24.8% 25.5% -0.8 pp
Heerenveen win 23.1% 23.0% +0.1 pp
Over 2.5 54.0% 50.8% +3.2 pp
Both teams score 55.5% 53.1% +2.4 pp
Expected goals GO Ahead Eagles 1.75 1.67 +0.08
Expected goals Heerenveen 1.09 1.04 +0.05

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • GO Ahead Eagles win52.2%1.92
  • Draw24.8%4.04
  • Heerenveen win23.1%4.33
  • Double chance GO Ahead Eagles or draw76.9%1.30
  • Double chance GO Ahead Eagles or Heerenveen75.2%1.33
  • Double chance Heerenveen or draw47.8%2.09
  • Draw no bet GO Ahead Eagles69.3%1.44
  • Draw no bet Heerenveen30.7%3.26

Goals

  • Over 0.593.6%1.07
  • Over 1.578.2%1.28
  • Over 2.554.0%1.85
  • Over 3.531.7%3.15
  • Over 4.515.9%6.30
  • Under 1.521.8%4.58
  • Under 2.546.0%2.17
  • Under 3.568.3%1.46

Both teams to score

  • Yes55.5%1.80
  • No44.5%2.25
  • Yes and over 2.543.7%2.29
  • GO Ahead Eagles win and yes25.0%4.00
  • Draw and yes18.3%5.45
  • Heerenveen win and yes12.1%8.26

Team goals

  • GO Ahead Eagles over 0.582.6%1.21
  • GO Ahead Eagles over 1.552.2%1.92
  • GO Ahead Eagles over 2.525.6%3.91
  • Heerenveen over 0.566.4%1.51
  • Heerenveen over 1.529.8%3.36
  • Heerenveen over 2.59.8%10.21
  • GO Ahead Eagles clean sheet33.6%2.98
  • Heerenveen clean sheet17.4%5.75
  • GO Ahead Eagles win to nil27.1%3.69
  • Heerenveen win to nil11.0%9.11

Handicap

  • GO Ahead Eagles −1.529.1%3.43
  • GO Ahead Eagles −2.513.0%7.70
  • Heerenveen +1.570.9%1.41
  • Heerenveen +2.587.0%1.15
  • Heerenveen −1.58.9%11.21
  • GO Ahead Eagles +1.591.1%1.10

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored196 Favourite won50.5% Avg chance given to result41.0% 1X2 Brier0.589 Over 2.5 called right62.8% BTTS called right62.2%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%3438.1%32.4%
40–50%7245.0%44.4%
50–60%4455.1%50.0%
60–70%2564.0%60.0%
70–80%1474.3%92.9%
80%+784.7%85.7%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 173 of 196 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.59330.5910
Avg chance given to result40.7%41.9%
Favourite won49.7%51.4%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 173 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 196 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.