GO Ahead Eagles
Attack—
Defense risk—
GO Ahead Eagles
13th · 29 pts · 26 played
LLWWL
First leg0–1
6–0Full time
NAC Breda
17th · 23 pts · 26 played
LWWLD
Our take
GO Ahead Eagles were slight favourites.
GO Ahead Eagles were the stronger side on L90 Strength (22 vs 14). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for NAC Breda. GO Ahead Eagles had 7.1 days of rest, NAC Breda 7 and had to travel 121 km.
Away travel121 kmRest days7.1 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
GO Ahead Eagles46%
Draw26%
NAC Breda28%
GO Ahead Eagles52%
Draw25%
NAC Breda23%
GO Ahead Eagles45%
Draw26%
NAC Breda28%
GO Ahead Eagles38%
Draw27%
NAC Breda35%
GO Ahead Eagles45%
Draw26%
NAC Breda28%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Deventer)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsAllard Lindhout
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 74
Team strength
GO Ahead EaglesNAC Breda
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
14
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
14
29
AttackIn forecast
19
17
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNAC Breda
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GO Ahead EaglesNAC Breda
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.08
1.65
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.62
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
+0.35
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
85%
Scored inContext
62%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
15%
11.04
ShotsContext
12.85
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
44%
On target shareContext
31%
8.41
Shots in the boxContext
8.04
70%
Box shareContext
60%
14%
ConversionContext
8%
1.70
OffsidesContext
2.00
17.65
Shots allowedContext
12.62
5.62
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.15
5.92
BlocksContext
3.13
4.23
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.54
75%
Save rateContext
69%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
412
PassesContext
386
336
Accurate passesContext
302
82%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.77
9.08
FoulsContext
11.12
10.58
Fouls sufferedContext
12.42
1.58
Yellow cardsContext
1.77
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.15
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.78
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
80%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.20
ShotsContext
12.40
5.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
38%
On target shareContext
32%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.67
72%
Box shareContext
59%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
1.33
OffsidesContext
2.00
16.40
Shots allowedContext
13.00
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
5.40
BlocksContext
3.67
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
73%
Save rateContext
69%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
388
PassesContext
365
312
Accurate passesContext
278
81%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.78
9.60
FoulsContext
10.30
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
GO Ahead Eagles
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km242 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
NAC Breda
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel121 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| GO Ahead Eagles |
NAC Breda |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 8 Mar | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 8 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 121 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 242 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
GO Ahead Eagles
Confirmed XI
22J. De Busser(G)
5D. James
4J. Kramer
26J. Dirksen
29A. Adelgaard
7J. Breum
21M. Meulensteen
16V. Edvardsen
17M. Suray
9S. Sigurðarson
19J. Slory
NAC Breda
Confirmed XI
99D. Bielica(G)
4B. Kemper
8C. Leemans
3D. Odoi
25C. Valerius
16M. Balard
14K. Sowah
90L. Holtby
2B. Lucassen
24A. Ayew
7C. Brym
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences GO Ahead Eagles
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
NAC Breda
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- GO Ahead Eagles+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- NAC Breda-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
GO Ahead Eagles · Home
1.38points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-6-3
- Scored
- 1.69
- Conceded
- 1.54
NAC Breda · Away
0.58points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-7
- Scored
- 0.83
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | GO Ahead Eagles | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| Twente | L 1–4 HL 0–2 A | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Excelsior | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H | L 0–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Heracles | W 4–0 HL 2–4 A | W 1–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Feyenoord | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H | D 3–3 HL 0–2 A |
| Heerenveen | L 1–3 HD 2–2 A | D 3–3 A |
| Telstar | D 1–1 HL 2–4 A | L 0–3 AL 0–1 H |
| FC Volendam | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Ajax | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Groningen | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 AL 1–2 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | D 2–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Utrecht | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–2 A | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | D 1–1 H | L 3–4 HL 0–3 A |
| PEC Zwolle | W 2–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 0–3 H | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 29 of 75 · 1.16 per game | 20 of 75 · 0.80 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 GO Ahead Eagles wins1 draws1 NAC Breda wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 1 Nov 2025NAC Breda1–0GO Ahead Eagles
- 12 Apr 2025NAC Breda1–1GO Ahead Eagles
- 21 Dec 2024GO Ahead Eagles2–1NAC Breda
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| GO Ahead Eagles | NAC Breda | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.08 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.65 | 1.62 | |
| Match goals | 3.15 | 2.69 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 65% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 54% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 46% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 15% | |
| Failed to score | 15% | 38% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| GO Ahead Eagles | NAC Breda | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.90 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| GO Ahead Eagles | NAC Breda | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.31 | 5.12 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.69 | 4.35 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 9.47 | 10.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 85% 22/26 | 62% 16/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 65% 17/26 | 46% 12/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 13/26 | 42% 11/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.65 | 2.04 | |
| Match total | 3.38 | 4.04 | 3.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 42% 11/26 | 58% 15/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 23% 6/26 | 46% 12/26 | |
| GO Ahead Eagles | NAC Breda | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 11.30 | 10.10 | 10.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 4.00 | 3.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Allard Lindhout Netherlands · 74 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.57league 3.26
Red cards0.20league 0.18
Cards 5+34%league 28%
Fouls20.0league 21.4
Penalties0.19league 0.24
Home wins36%league 45%
GO Ahead Eagles3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.0.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D30 Aug 25A · Heerenveen2–21
- W14 Feb 25H · Sparta Rotterdam1–00
- L10 Dec 23H · Utrecht0–20
NAC Breda2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L9 Aug 25A · Feyenoord0–21
- D24 Nov 24A · Willem II2–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
GO Ahead Eagles25 games · scored 37 · conceded 43
6
5
0-15
3
5
16-30
7
10
31-45
6
8
46-60
7
6
61-75
8
9
76-90
NAC Breda26 games · scored 28 · conceded 42
1
5
0-15
4
7
16-30
8
8
31-45
6
7
46-60
1
4
61-75
8
11
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles10 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
31-45
5
3
46-60
4
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
NAC Breda10 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
5
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
