GO Ahead Eagles
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
GO Ahead Eagles
13th · 29 pts · 26 played
LLWWL
First leg0–1
6–0Full time
NAC Breda
17th · 23 pts · 26 played
LWWLD
GO Ahead Eagles45.7%fair odds 2.19
Draw26.0%fair odds 3.85
NAC Breda28.3%fair odds 3.53
Expected goals1.59 – 1.21total 2.80
Likeliest score1–112.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
NAC Breda
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| GO Ahead Eagles ↓ · NAC Breda → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.3 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are GO Ahead Eagles goals, columns NAC Breda goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.3%8.13
- 2–19.3%10.74
- 1–09.1%11.04
- 2–07.7%12.96
- 1–27.1%14.17
- 0–16.7%14.90
- 0–06.7%14.94
- 2–25.6%17.78
- 3–14.9%20.21
- 0–24.4%22.59
Winning margin
9.8%
GO Ahead Eagles by 3+
fair 10.19
14.0%
GO Ahead Eagles by 2
fair 7.13
21.9%
GO Ahead Eagles by 1
fair 4.57
26.0%
Draw
fair 3.85
16.4%
NAC Breda by 1
fair 6.09
8.0%
NAC Breda by 2
fair 12.43
3.8%
NAC Breda by 3+
fair 26.17
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
15%5+
GO Ahead Eagles goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
NAC Breda goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GO Ahead Eagles win | 45.7% | 45.3% | +0.4 pp |
| Draw | 26.0% | 26.4% | -0.5 pp |
| NAC Breda win | 28.3% | 28.2% | +0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.1% | 51.2% | +1.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.5% | 55.0% | +1.4 pp |
| Expected goals GO Ahead Eagles | 1.59 | 1.55 | +0.05 |
| Expected goals NAC Breda | 1.21 | 1.17 | +0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- GO Ahead Eagles win45.7%2.19
- Draw26.0%3.85
- NAC Breda win28.3%3.53
- Double chance GO Ahead Eagles or draw71.7%1.39
- Double chance GO Ahead Eagles or NAC Breda74.0%1.35
- Double chance NAC Breda or draw54.3%1.84
- Draw no bet GO Ahead Eagles61.8%1.62
- Draw no bet NAC Breda38.2%2.62
Goals
- Over 0.593.3%1.07
- Over 1.577.5%1.29
- Over 2.553.1%1.88
- Over 3.530.8%3.24
- Over 4.515.3%6.56
- Under 1.522.5%4.45
- Under 2.546.9%2.13
- Under 3.569.2%1.45
Both teams to score
- Yes56.5%1.77
- No43.5%2.30
- Yes and over 2.544.2%2.26
- GO Ahead Eagles win and yes22.5%4.44
- Draw and yes19.3%5.18
- NAC Breda win and yes14.7%6.81
Team goals
- GO Ahead Eagles over 0.579.7%1.25
- GO Ahead Eagles over 1.547.3%2.11
- GO Ahead Eagles over 2.521.5%4.65
- NAC Breda over 0.570.1%1.43
- NAC Breda over 1.534.0%2.94
- NAC Breda over 2.512.2%8.19
- GO Ahead Eagles clean sheet29.9%3.34
- NAC Breda clean sheet20.3%4.92
- GO Ahead Eagles win to nil23.2%4.31
- NAC Breda win to nil13.6%7.34
Handicap
- GO Ahead Eagles −1.523.8%4.20
- GO Ahead Eagles −2.59.8%10.19
- NAC Breda +1.576.2%1.31
- NAC Breda +2.590.2%1.11
- NAC Breda −1.511.9%8.43
- GO Ahead Eagles +1.588.1%1.13
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored242
Favourite won51.2%
Avg chance given to result41.0%
1X2 Brier0.591
Over 2.5 called right62.4%
BTTS called right63.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 40 | 38.0% | 35.0% |
| 40–50% | 90 | 44.9% | 47.8% |
| 50–60% | 53 | 54.8% | 43.4% |
| 60–70% | 32 | 64.3% | 65.6% |
| 70–80% | 20 | 74.3% | 85.0% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 84.7% | 85.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 194 of 242 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5925 | 0.5870 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.8% | 42.1% |
| Favourite won | 50.5% | 52.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 194 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 242 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.