GO Ahead Eagles
Attack—
Defense risk—
GO Ahead Eagles
9th · 10 pts · 7 played
WLDDD
3–3Full time
Sparta Rotterdam
12th · 5 pts · 7 played
DLDLL
Our take
GO Ahead Eagles were slight favourites.
GO Ahead Eagles were the stronger side on L90 Strength (26 vs 17). GO Ahead Eagles had 20 days of rest, Sparta Rotterdam 20.9 and had to travel 121 km.
Away travel121 kmRest days20 · 20.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
GO Ahead Eagles55%
Draw21%
Sparta Rotterdam23%
GO Ahead Eagles52%
Draw24%
Sparta Rotterdam24%
GO Ahead Eagles56%
Draw21%
Sparta Rotterdam23%
GO Ahead Eagles47%
Draw23%
Sparta Rotterdam30%
GO Ahead Eagles55%
Draw21%
Sparta Rotterdam24%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Deventer)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJeroen Manschot
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 59
Team strength
GO Ahead EaglesSparta Rotterdam
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
17
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
29
AttackIn forecast
32
17
DefenceIn forecast
17
30
Form indexContext
9
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSparta Rotterdam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GO Ahead EaglesSparta Rotterdam
2.29
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.43
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.43
1.65
xGVia Att/Def
1.76
1.80
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.28
+0.64
Goals minus xGContext
-0.33
100%
Scored inContext
71%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
15.29
ShotsContext
13.14
6.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
41%
On target shareContext
33%
10.57
Shots in the boxContext
9.29
69%
Box shareContext
70%
15%
ConversionContext
11%
1.33
OffsidesContext
2.67
16.57
Shots allowedContext
17.57
4.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.57
6.17
BlocksContext
5.29
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
60%
Save rateContext
63%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
476
PassesContext
391
393
Accurate passesContext
319
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.68
7.43
FoulsContext
10.14
10.43
Fouls sufferedContext
10.43
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.14
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.60
1.47
xGVia Att/Def
1.77
2.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.98
+0.53
Goals minus xGContext
-0.37
100%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.60
ShotsContext
14.20
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.75
40%
On target shareContext
27%
10.22
Shots in the boxContext
9.90
68%
Box shareContext
69%
15%
ConversionContext
10%
1.43
OffsidesContext
2.50
19.90
Shots allowedContext
18.10
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.10
7.11
BlocksContext
4.90
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.11
63%
Save rateContext
62%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
435
PassesContext
390
356
Accurate passesContext
319
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.74
7.90
FoulsContext
10.00
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
GO Ahead Eagles
WLDDD
Rest20 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 30 · 6 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · -0.6 vs expected
Sparta Rotterdam
DLDLL
Rest20.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel121 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 9 · 2 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · -4.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| GO Ahead Eagles |
Sparta Rotterdam |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 20Eredivisie 2026-2027, 20 Sep | 20.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 19 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 121 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
GO Ahead Eagles
Confirmed XI
1C. Haug(G)
5D. James
4J. Kramer
25G. van Zwam
2A. Sampsted
8H. Linthorst
21M. Meulensteen
17M. Suray
16V. Edvardsen
10S. Tengstedt
9S. Sigurðarson
Sparta Rotterdam
Confirmed XI
1M. Brouwer(G)
5B. Kuipers
4R. Martins Indi
3M. Young
2Lushendry Edward Martes
6N. Verschuren
11I. Babadi
10C. Hatenboer
8J. Toornstra
7Robin van Cruijsen
9Milan Zonneveld
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences GO Ahead Eagles
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sparta Rotterdam
Scores -0.03 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- GO Ahead Eagles-0.5 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Sparta Rotterdam+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
GO Ahead Eagles · Home
2.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 2.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
Sparta Rotterdam · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 2.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | GO Ahead Eagles | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| Utrecht | D 3–3 A | D 3–3 H |
| Feyenoord | D 2–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 2 of 6 · 1.00 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 GO Ahead Eagles wins2 draws1 Sparta Rotterdam wins
Goals per game1.17 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets50% · 33%
- 3 May 2026Sparta Rotterdam2–2GO Ahead Eagles
- 23 Aug 2025GO Ahead Eagles0–3Sparta Rotterdam
- 14 Feb 2025GO Ahead Eagles1–0Sparta Rotterdam
- 15 Sep 2024Sparta Rotterdam1–2GO Ahead Eagles
- 21 Jan 2024Sparta Rotterdam0–2GO Ahead Eagles
- 22 Oct 2023GO Ahead Eagles0–0Sparta Rotterdam
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| GO Ahead Eagles | Sparta Rotterdam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.29 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.43 | |
| Match goals | 4.29 | 3.86 | 3.28 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 86% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 71% | 71% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 71% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| GO Ahead Eagles | Sparta Rotterdam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 2.60 | |
| Match goals | 4.20 | 4.00 | 3.28 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 90% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 70% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| GO Ahead Eagles | Sparta Rotterdam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.57 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 10.57 | 13.00 | 10.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 100% 7/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 5/7 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 4/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.14 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.71 | 0.86 | |
| Match total | 1.71 | 2.00 | 2.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/7 | 0% 0/7 | |
| GO Ahead Eagles | Sparta Rotterdam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.10 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 6.80 | |
| Match total | 11.60 | 12.30 | 10.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.70 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 2.10 | 2.60 | 2.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeroen Manschot Netherlands · 59 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.29league 2.64
Red cards0.14league 0.05
Cards 5+29%league 11%
Fouls19.5league 20.9
Penalties0.25league 0.20
Home wins42%league 31%
GO Ahead Eagles8 with this referee
Record3-2-3
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- D23 Apr 26H · AZ Alkmaar0–02
- L22 Mar 26A · Utrecht0–21
- L22 Nov 25A · Heracles2–43
- W21 Sep 25A · PEC Zwolle2–02
- D27 Apr 25A · Almere City FC0–01
Sparta Rotterdam5 with this referee
Record3-0-2
Cards · opp.1.2 · 2.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W21 Dec 25A · FC Volendam1–02
- W14 Sep 25A · Excelsior1–01
- W21 Sep 24A · Waalwijk2–11
- L4 Feb 24H · PEC Zwolle0–21
- L1 Oct 23A · Excelsior1–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
GO Ahead Eagles7 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
1
3
0-15
3
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
5
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam7 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
2
0-15
1
5
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles10 games · scored 20 · conceded 22
1
4
0-15
4
2
16-30
1
6
31-45
4
2
46-60
5
3
61-75
5
5
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam10 games · scored 14 · conceded 26
2
1
0-15
1
5
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
6
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
