GO Ahead Eagles vs Telstar – 8 Feb 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Feb 8 · 13:30 De Adelaarshorst, Deventer

GO Ahead Eagles 14th · 22 pts · 20 played LDDDD

First leg2–4 1–1Full time

Telstar 17th · 16 pts · 21 played WLDLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

GO Ahead Eagles were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards GO Ahead Eagles. GO Ahead Eagles had 6.8 days of rest, Telstar 7.8 and had to travel 105 km.

Away travel105 kmRest days6.8 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 1

GO Ahead Eagles52%

Draw25%

Telstar23%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.07

GO Ahead Eagles47%

Draw26%

Telstar27%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.13

GO Ahead Eagles50%

Draw26%

Telstar24%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.08

GO Ahead Eagles44%

Draw27%

Telstar29%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.20

GO Ahead Eagles51%

Draw26%

Telstar24%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.06

Over 2.5 52% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Deventer)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsDennis Higler

Cards per match 3.3
Penalties per match 0.20
Matches 45

Team strength

GO Ahead Eagles

Telstar

25 L90 StrengthIn forecast 21

24 Current StrengthIn forecast 22

29 AttackIn forecast 24

17 DefenceIn forecast 13

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

GO Ahead Eagles

Attack—

Defense risk—

Telstar

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

GO Ahead Eagles

Telstar

1.55 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.19

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.76

1.13 xGVia Att/Def 1.35

1.71 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.81

+0.42 Goals minus xGContext -0.16

85% Scored inContext 71%

15% Clean sheetsContext 14%

10.95 ShotsContext 12.57

4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

45% On target shareContext 35%

7.88 Shots in the boxContext 7.89

67% Box shareContext 60%

14% ConversionContext 10%

1.82 OffsidesContext 2.41

17.90 Shots allowedContext 15.24

5.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.90

6.22 BlocksContext 4.45

4.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.14

75% Save rateContext 70%

51% PossessionIn forecast 43%

430 PassesContext 351

353 Accurate passesContext 271

82% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.85

9.45 FoulsContext 11.00

10.30 Fouls sufferedContext 10.86

1.65 Yellow cardsContext 1.33

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.10

This league season, per match · 20 and 21 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

0.89 xGVia Att/Def 1.15

1.78 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.62

+0.31 Goals minus xGContext -0.05

80% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.80 ShotsContext 10.30

4.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.44

41% On target shareContext 30%

7.20 Shots in the boxContext 5.63

68% Box shareContext 54%

11% ConversionContext 11%

1.89 OffsidesContext 2.75

16.40 Shots allowedContext 14.80

5.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.70

5.10 BlocksContext 4.89

3.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.20

73% Save rateContext 74%

50% PossessionIn forecast 41%

441 PassesContext 342

360 Accurate passesContext 259

82% Pass accuracyContext 76%

6.69 Team ratingContext 6.84

9.80 FoulsContext 9.70

8.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.90

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

GO Ahead Eagles

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km158 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Telstar

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel105 km196 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	GO Ahead Eagles	Telstar
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 1 Feb	7.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 31 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	105 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	158 km	196 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 5	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	3.2	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

GO Ahead Eagles Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22J. De Busser(G)

29A. Adelgaard 4J. Kramer 26J. Dirksen 25G. van Zwam

8H. Linthorst 21M. Meulensteen

23T. Baeten 7J. Breum 19J. Slory

16V. Edvardsen

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Telstar Confirmed XI

3-4-3

20D. Reiziger(G)

6D. Bakker 4G. Offerhaus 14Nigel Ogidi Nwankwo

2J. Hardeveld 23C. Hatenboer 17N. Rossen 11T. Noslin

19N. Þórisson 39J. Ritmeester van de Kamp 7S. Hetli

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

GO Ahead Eagles Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Telstar Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

GO Ahead Eagles+1.7 pp
Draw-0.6 pp
Telstar-1.2 pp

Home / Away this season

GO Ahead Eagles · Home 1.56points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 3-5-1
Scored: 1.67
Conceded: 1.33

Telstar · Away 0.90points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 2-3-5
Scored: 0.80
Conceded: 1.40

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	GO Ahead Eagles	Telstar
FC Volendam	D 1–1 AW 3–0 H	D 2–2 H
Ajax	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H	L 2–3 HL 0–2 A
Fortuna Sittard	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A	L 1–3 H
Groningen	D 1–1 H	L 0–2 A
Twente	L 0–2 A	D 0–0 A
AZ Alkmaar	D 2–2 A	L 0–1 HL 1–2 A
Utrecht	D 2–2 H	D 1–1 H
Heracles	L 2–4 A	D 1–1 A
Feyenoord	W 2–1 H	L 1–2 H
NAC Breda	L 0–1 A	W 1–0 A
Excelsior	W 2–0 H	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–2 A	W 2–0 A
NEC Nijmegen	D 1–1 H	D 2–2 H
PEC Zwolle	W 2–0 A	L 1–4 AL 0–2 H
Heerenveen	D 2–2 A	L 2–3 H
Sparta Rotterdam	L 0–3 H	L 0–1 A
Points	22 of 57 · 1.16 per game	13 of 60 · 0.65 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 GO Ahead Eagles wins0 draws1 Telstar wins

Goals per game2.00 – 4.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

28 Sep 2025Telstar4–2GO Ahead Eagles

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	GO Ahead Eagles	Telstar	Forecast
Scored per game	1.55	1.19
Conceded per game	1.70	1.76
Match goals	3.25	2.95	2.76
Over 1.5	95%	81%
Over 2.5	65%	52%	52%
Over 3.5	45%	43%
Both teams scored	70%	62%	54%
Clean sheets	15%	14%
Failed to score	15%	29%
Games	20	21

	GO Ahead Eagles	Telstar	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.10
Conceded per game	1.70	1.60
Match goals	2.90	2.70	2.76
Over 1.5	90%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	52%
Over 3.5	50%	40%
Both teams scored	80%	70%	54%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	GO Ahead Eagles	Telstar	League
Corners
Corners won	5.20	5.15
Corners conceded	5.35	5.90
Match total	10.55	11.05	10.23
Over 8.5	80% 16/20	80% 16/20
Over 9.5	65% 13/20	70% 14/20
Over 10.5	50% 10/20	60% 12/20
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.43
Opponent cards	1.90	1.76
Match total	3.70	3.19	3.61
Over 3.5	45% 9/20	33% 7/21
Over 4.5	25% 5/20	29% 6/21

	GO Ahead Eagles	Telstar	League
Corners
Corners won	4.60	4.70
Corners conceded	4.90	5.50
Match total	9.50	10.20	10.23
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	1.30
Opponent cards	1.50	2.20
Match total	3.90	3.50	3.61
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Dennis Higler Netherlands · 45 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.02league 3.40

Red cards0.24league 0.21

Cards 5+29%league 32%

Fouls22.0league 21.7

Penalties0.20league 0.26

Home wins44%league 44%

GO Ahead Eagles3 with this referee

Record0-2-1 Cards · opp.1.7 · 3.0 Pens for · against2 · 0

L1 Nov 25A · NAC Breda0–12
D2 Feb 25H · Twente2–21
D11 Feb 24H · PEC Zwolle1–12

Telstar1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

L19 Oct 25H · Heerenveen2–31

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.