Goztepe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Goztepe were slight favourites.
Goztepe were the stronger side on L90 Strength (28 vs 12). Goztepe had 6 days of rest, Genclerbirligi 6 and had to travel 520 km.
Away travel520 kmRest days6 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Goztepe59%
Draw24%
Genclerbirligi18%
Goztepe60%
Draw23%
Genclerbirligi17%
Goztepe59%
Draw24%
Genclerbirligi18%
Goztepe51%
Draw26%
Genclerbirligi23%
Goztepe60%
Draw23%
Genclerbirligi18%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İzmir)
No weather data yet
RefereeYasin Kol
- Cards per match 5.9
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 24
Team strength
Goztepe
Genclerbirligi
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
12
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
39
AttackIn forecast
13
36
DefenceIn forecast
16
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenclerbirligi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GoztepeGenclerbirligi
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
0.88
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
70%
Scored inContext
80%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.80
ShotsContext
9.40
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.90
36%
On target shareContext
31%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.10
59%
Box shareContext
56%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.22
11.70
Shots allowedContext
14.90
3.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.44
BlocksContext
4.43
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
85%
Save rateContext
67%
36%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
242
PassesContext
304
168
Accurate passesContext
239
69%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.68
16.30
FoulsContext
12.00
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.90
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
0.88
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
70%
Scored inContext
80%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.80
ShotsContext
9.40
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.90
36%
On target shareContext
31%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.10
59%
Box shareContext
56%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.22
11.70
Shots allowedContext
14.90
3.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.44
BlocksContext
4.43
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
85%
Save rateContext
67%
36%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
242
PassesContext
304
168
Accurate passesContext
239
69%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.68
16.30
FoulsContext
12.00
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.90
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Goztepe
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,366 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Genclerbirligi
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel520 km704 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Goztepe |
Genclerbirligi |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 26 Oct | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 26 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 520 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,366 km | 704 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Goztepe
Confirmed XI
1M. Lis(G)
20N. Miroshi
5Héliton
4T. Altıkardeş
15A. Cherni
30A. Dennis
6Rhaldney
2A. Kurtulan
11Efkan Bekiroğlu
9Juan
39Janderson
Genclerbirligi
Confirmed XI
18E. Erentürk(G)
23M. Hanousek
4Žan Žužek
6D. Goutas
13Pedro Pereira
35O. Ülgün
15A. Dele-Bashiru
70F. Tongya
22S. Koïta
11G. Gürpüz
29M. Niang
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Goztepe
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Genclerbirligi
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Goztepe+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Genclerbirligi+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Goztepe · Home
2.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-0
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 0.25
Genclerbirligi · Away
0.80points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 7 this season
| Opponent | Goztepe | Genclerbirligi |
|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor | L 0–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Eyüpspor | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Besiktas | W 3–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Kayserispor | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Konyaspor | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Fenerbahce | D 0–0 H | L 1–3 H |
| Rizespor | W 3–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 10 of 21 · 1.43 per game | 8 of 21 · 1.14 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Goztepe | Genclerbirligi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 2.50 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Goztepe | Genclerbirligi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 2.50 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Goztepe | Genclerbirligi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 9.45 | 9.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 5.00 | 5.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Goztepe | Genclerbirligi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 9.45 | 9.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 5.00 | 5.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Yasin Kol 24 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.33league 4.74
Red cards0.54league 0.29
Cards 5+67%league 55%
Fouls27.1league 26.3
Penalties0.38league 0.29
Home wins29%league 37%
Goztepe3 with this referee
Record0-3-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 3.3
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds2
- D16 Aug 25H · Fenerbahce0–07
- D16 Mar 25H · Eyüpspor1–14
- D10 Feb 25A · BB Bodrumspor0–01
GenclerbirligiNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Goztepe10 games · scored 12 · conceded 6
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
Genclerbirligi10 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
Goztepe10 games · scored 12 · conceded 6
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
Genclerbirligi10 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
