Goztepe
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Goztepe58.6%fair odds 1.71
Draw23.5%fair odds 4.25
Genclerbirligi17.8%fair odds 5.60
Expected goals1.85 – 0.93total 2.78
Likeliest score1–111.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Genclerbirligi
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Goztepe ↓ · Genclerbirligi → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.2 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Goztepe goals, columns Genclerbirligi goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.2%8.92
- 1–010.9%9.14
- 2–010.7%9.38
- 2–19.9%10.13
- 0–06.8%14.77
- 3–06.6%15.17
- 3–16.1%16.39
- 0–15.2%19.30
- 1–24.9%20.29
- 2–24.6%21.88
Winning margin
16.3%
Goztepe by 3+
fair 6.13
18.2%
Goztepe by 2
fair 5.48
24.1%
Goztepe by 1
fair 4.15
23.5%
Draw
fair 4.25
11.7%
Genclerbirligi by 1
fair 8.52
4.5%
Genclerbirligi by 2
fair 21.99
1.6%
Genclerbirligi by 3+
fair 64.16
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
Goztepe goals
16%0
29%1
27%2
17%3
12%4+
Genclerbirligi goals
40%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goztepe win | 58.6% | 59.9% | -1.3 pp |
| Draw | 23.5% | 22.5% | +1.0 pp |
| Genclerbirligi win | 17.8% | 17.6% | +0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.6% | 56.2% | -3.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.5% | 54.0% | -2.5 pp |
| Expected goals Goztepe | 1.85 | 1.96 | -0.11 |
| Expected goals Genclerbirligi | 0.93 | 0.97 | -0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Goztepe win58.6%1.71
- Draw23.5%4.25
- Genclerbirligi win17.8%5.60
- Double chance Goztepe or draw82.2%1.22
- Double chance Goztepe or Genclerbirligi76.5%1.31
- Double chance Genclerbirligi or draw41.4%2.42
- Draw no bet Goztepe76.7%1.30
- Draw no bet Genclerbirligi23.3%4.29
Goals
- Over 0.593.2%1.07
- Over 1.577.1%1.30
- Over 2.552.6%1.90
- Over 3.530.4%3.29
- Over 4.514.9%6.70
- Under 1.522.9%4.37
- Under 2.547.4%2.11
- Under 3.569.6%1.44
Both teams to score
- Yes51.5%1.94
- No48.5%2.06
- Yes and over 2.540.3%2.48
- Goztepe win and yes25.8%3.88
- Draw and yes16.8%5.97
- Genclerbirligi win and yes9.0%11.17
Team goals
- Goztepe over 0.584.3%1.19
- Goztepe over 1.555.3%1.81
- Goztepe over 2.528.4%3.52
- Genclerbirligi over 0.560.4%1.66
- Genclerbirligi over 1.523.7%4.22
- Genclerbirligi over 2.56.7%14.89
- Goztepe clean sheet39.6%2.52
- Genclerbirligi clean sheet15.7%6.39
- Goztepe win to nil32.9%3.04
- Genclerbirligi win to nil8.9%11.25
Handicap
- Goztepe −1.534.5%2.89
- Goztepe −2.516.3%6.13
- Genclerbirligi +1.565.5%1.53
- Genclerbirligi +2.583.7%1.19
- Genclerbirligi −1.56.1%16.38
- Goztepe +1.593.9%1.07
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored91
Favourite won49.5%
Avg chance given to result40.8%
1X2 Brier0.581
Over 2.5 called right54.9%
BTTS called right48.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 14 | 38.3% | 28.6% |
| 40–50% | 42 | 43.9% | 35.7% |
| 50–60% | 18 | 55.4% | 66.7% |
| 60–70% | 10 | 65.8% | 80.0% |
| 70–80% | 6 | 75.9% | 83.3% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 80.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 67 of 91 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5904 | 0.5672 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.1% | 42.0% |
| Favourite won | 52.2% | 55.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 67 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 91 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.