Goztepe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Goztepe were slight favourites.
Goztepe were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 20). Goztepe had 29 days of rest, Rizespor 30 and had to travel 1,180 km.
Away travel1,180 kmRest days29 · 30Matches / 14d0 · 0
Goztepe54%
Draw25%
Rizespor21%
Goztepe54%
Draw25%
Rizespor21%
Goztepe53%
Draw25%
Rizespor22%
Goztepe47%
Draw26%
Rizespor27%
Goztepe55%
Draw24%
Rizespor21%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İzmir)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAli Sansalan
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.57
- Matches 14
Team strength
Goztepe
Rizespor
33
L90 StrengthIn forecast
20
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
39
AttackIn forecast
22
36
DefenceIn forecast
35
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRizespor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GoztepeRizespor
1.24
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.18
0.53
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.41
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
0.93
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
76%
Scored inContext
71%
65%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
13.12
ShotsContext
11.76
4.69
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
34%
On target shareContext
26%
8.41
Shots in the boxContext
6.65
64%
Box shareContext
55%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.15
11.71
Shots allowedContext
13.65
3.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.33
3.56
BlocksContext
3.81
2.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
85%
Save rateContext
72%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
246
PassesContext
385
171
Accurate passesContext
315
69%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.77
16.76
FoulsContext
13.82
9.18
Fouls sufferedContext
11.59
2.12
Yellow cardsContext
2.71
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.22
80%
Scored inContext
70%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.90
ShotsContext
12.30
4.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.80
34%
On target shareContext
23%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
68%
Box shareContext
52%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.71
13.00
Shots allowedContext
14.10
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.25
3.40
BlocksContext
4.56
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.63
85%
Save rateContext
74%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
242
PassesContext
385
166
Accurate passesContext
316
69%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.75
16.30
FoulsContext
14.00
9.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Goztepe
Rest29 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rizespor
Rest30 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel1,180 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Goztepe |
Rizespor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 29Süper Lig 2025-2026, 21 Dec | 30Süper Lig 2025-2026, 20 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,180 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Goztepe
Confirmed XI
1M. Lis(G)
26M. Bokele
5Héliton
4T. Altıkardeş
15A. Cherni
20N. Miroshi
30A. Dennis
2A. Kurtulan
10Junior Olaitan
9Juan
39Janderson
Rizespor
Confirmed XI
75Y. Fofana(G)
5C. Højer
27M. Sagnan
3S. Akaydin
2K. Alikulov
37M. Şahin
10I. Olawoyin
6G. Papanikolaou
20Q. Laçi
9A. Sowe
50L. Augusto
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Goztepe
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rizespor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Goztepe+1.1 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Rizespor-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Goztepe · Home
1.88points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-1
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 0.38
Rizespor · Away
1.00points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-5-2
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 1.38
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Goztepe | Rizespor |
|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 1–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Antalyaspor | W 2–1 A | W 5–2 A |
| Kocaelispor | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Kasimpasa | W 2–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Genclerbirligi | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Galatasaray | L 1–3 A | L 1–3 A |
| Alanyaspor | L 0–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Eyüpspor | D 0–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Besiktas | W 3–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Kayserispor | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Konyaspor | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 2–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Fenerbahce | D 0–0 H | L 2–5 H |
| Points | 29 of 48 · 1.81 per game | 18 of 48 · 1.13 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 Goztepe wins0 draws1 Rizespor wins
Goals per game3.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets67% · 0%
- 10 Aug 2025Rizespor0–3Goztepe
- 18 May 2025Rizespor6–3Goztepe
- 22 Dec 2024Goztepe3–0Rizespor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Goztepe | Rizespor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.24 | 1.18 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.53 | 1.41 | |
| Match goals | 1.76 | 2.59 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 59% | 65% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 47% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 6% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 53% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 65% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 24% | 29% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| Goztepe | Rizespor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 2.40 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Goztepe | Rizespor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.65 | 3.27 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.65 | 4.87 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 8.14 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 59% 10/17 | 47% 7/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 53% 9/17 | 33% 5/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 5/17 | 13% 2/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.35 | 2.76 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 4.64 | 4.47 | 4.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 59% 10/17 | 65% 11/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 41% 7/17 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Goztepe | Rizespor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 8.45 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.20 | 4.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ali Sansalan Türkiye · 14 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.93league 4.38
Red cards0.29league 0.24
Cards 5+64%league 45%
Fouls25.4league 25.7
Penalties0.57league 0.25
Home wins50%league 36%
Goztepe1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D29 Aug 25H · Konyaspor1–12
RizesporNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Goztepe17 games · scored 21 · conceded 9
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
6
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
Rizespor17 games · scored 20 · conceded 24
4
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
4
4
46-60
1
5
61-75
5
7
76-90
Goztepe10 games · scored 11 · conceded 7
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
Rizespor10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
2
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
