Groningen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Groningen54.9%fair odds 1.82
Draw24.0%fair odds 4.17
FC Volendam21.2%fair odds 4.73
Expected goals1.83 – 1.06total 2.89
Likeliest score1–111.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
FC Volendam
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Groningen ↓ · FC Volendam → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.3 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Groningen goals, columns FC Volendam goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.3%8.82
- 2–19.9%10.14
- 1–09.6%10.43
- 2–09.3%10.75
- 0–06.1%16.36
- 3–16.0%16.59
- 1–25.7%17.52
- 3–05.7%17.59
- 0–15.3%18.85
- 2–25.2%19.12
Winning margin
14.7%
Groningen by 3+
fair 6.82
17.0%
Groningen by 2
fair 5.88
23.2%
Groningen by 1
fair 4.31
24.0%
Draw
fair 4.17
13.2%
FC Volendam by 1
fair 7.58
5.7%
FC Volendam by 2
fair 17.57
2.3%
FC Volendam by 3+
fair 43.89
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
Groningen goals
16%0
29%1
27%2
16%3
11%4+
FC Volendam goals
35%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Groningen win | 54.9% | 54.0% | +0.9 pp |
| Draw | 24.0% | 24.6% | -0.6 pp |
| FC Volendam win | 21.2% | 21.4% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.2% | 53.2% | +2.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.5% | 54.1% | +1.4 pp |
| Expected goals Groningen | 1.83 | 1.77 | +0.06 |
| Expected goals FC Volendam | 1.06 | 1.03 | +0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Groningen win54.9%1.82
- Draw24.0%4.17
- FC Volendam win21.2%4.73
- Double chance Groningen or draw78.8%1.27
- Double chance Groningen or FC Volendam76.0%1.32
- Double chance FC Volendam or draw45.1%2.22
- Draw no bet Groningen72.2%1.39
- Draw no bet FC Volendam27.8%3.59
Goals
- Over 0.593.9%1.07
- Over 1.579.0%1.27
- Over 2.555.2%1.81
- Over 3.532.9%3.04
- Over 4.516.7%5.98
- Under 1.521.0%4.76
- Under 2.544.8%2.23
- Under 3.567.1%1.49
Both teams to score
- Yes55.5%1.80
- No44.5%2.25
- Yes and over 2.544.1%2.27
- Groningen win and yes26.4%3.79
- Draw and yes17.8%5.60
- FC Volendam win and yes11.3%8.87
Team goals
- Groningen over 0.584.0%1.19
- Groningen over 1.554.7%1.83
- Groningen over 2.527.8%3.59
- FC Volendam over 0.565.4%1.53
- FC Volendam over 1.528.6%3.49
- FC Volendam over 2.59.2%10.90
- Groningen clean sheet34.6%2.89
- FC Volendam clean sheet16.0%6.25
- Groningen win to nil28.5%3.51
- FC Volendam win to nil9.9%10.12
Handicap
- Groningen −1.531.7%3.16
- Groningen −2.514.7%6.82
- FC Volendam +1.568.3%1.46
- FC Volendam +2.585.3%1.17
- FC Volendam −1.58.0%12.55
- Groningen +1.592.0%1.09
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored136
Favourite won51.5%
Avg chance given to result42.0%
1X2 Brier0.568
Over 2.5 called right65.4%
BTTS called right63.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 26 | 38.1% | 23.1% |
| 40–50% | 48 | 45.0% | 45.8% |
| 50–60% | 31 | 55.4% | 54.8% |
| 60–70% | 17 | 64.1% | 70.6% |
| 70–80% | 10 | 75.0% | 90.0% |
| 80%+ | 4 | 83.0% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 113 of 136 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5706 | 0.5570 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.7% | 43.5% |
| Favourite won | 50.4% | 54.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 113 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗Telstar 2–2 NEC Nijmegen35·26·39
- ✓Sparta Rotterdam 1–0 NAC Breda50·25·25
- ✓FC Volendam 2–3 NEC Nijmegen28·26·47
- ✗AZ Alkmaar 2–2 GO Ahead Eagles58·23·19
- ✗Utrecht 1–1 Twente45·26·29
- ✓Feyenoord 6–1 PEC Zwolle67·20·13
- ✗Heracles 1–1 Telstar38·27·35
- ✓Fortuna Sittard 1–3 Ajax28·26·47
- ✓Heerenveen 0–2 PSV Eindhoven11·18·70
- ✗Excelsior 0–2 Groningen37·27·36
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 136 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.