Groningen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Groningen were slight favourites.
Groningen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (25 vs 14). Absences weigh more on Groningen. Groningen had 7.9 days of rest, FC Volendam 6.2 and had to travel 129 km.
Away travel129 kmRest days7.9 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Groningen55%
Draw24%
FC Volendam21%
Groningen55%
Draw25%
FC Volendam21%
Groningen56%
Draw24%
FC Volendam21%
Groningen47%
Draw26%
FC Volendam27%
Groningen54%
Draw25%
FC Volendam21%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Groningen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsDanny Makkelie
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 98
Team strength
Groningen
FC Volendam
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
14
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
14
41
AttackIn forecast
14
21
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Volendam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GroningenFC Volendam
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.27
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.63
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.54
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
73%
Scored inContext
80%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
7%
15.07
ShotsContext
10.73
6.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
43%
On target shareContext
34%
8.47
Shots in the boxContext
6.53
57%
Box shareContext
60%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
1.91
OffsidesContext
1.33
11.27
Shots allowedContext
17.40
4.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
2.46
BlocksContext
5.33
2.85
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
64%
Save rateContext
71%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
410
PassesContext
368
328
Accurate passesContext
299
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.81
11.13
FoulsContext
8.67
10.73
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.13
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.84
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
-0.74
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
16.10
ShotsContext
10.70
7.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
41%
On target shareContext
35%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
54%
Box shareContext
65%
7%
ConversionContext
12%
2.13
OffsidesContext
1.25
9.90
Shots allowedContext
17.40
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
1.75
BlocksContext
5.90
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
66%
Save rateContext
67%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
424
PassesContext
373
346
Accurate passesContext
306
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.85
10.60
FoulsContext
7.90
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
13.10
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Groningen
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km697 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC Volendam
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel129 km241 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Groningen |
FC Volendam |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 5 Dec | 6.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 7 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 129 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 697 km | 241 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Groningen
Confirmed XI
1E. Vaessen(G)
43M. Peersman
4D. Janse
3T. Blokzijl
16T. Mercera
8T. de Jonge
6S. Resink
10Y. Taha
26T. van Bergen
14J. Schreuders
9B. Willumsson
FC Volendam
Confirmed XI
1K. van Oevelen(G)
32Y. Leliendal
20N. Verschuren
3M. Amevor
2D. Payne
18N. Bukala
8G. Yah
11A. Oehlers
7O. Kökçü
10B. Kuwas
9H. Veerman
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Groningen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Volendam
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Groningen-0.7 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- FC Volendam+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Groningen · Home
1.57points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-2
- Scored
- 1.57
- Conceded
- 1.00
FC Volendam · Away
0.29points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-5
- Scored
- 0.71
- Conceded
- 2.29
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Groningen | FC Volendam |
|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | W 2–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Ajax | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| PEC Zwolle | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 0–2 A | L 2–3 H |
| Twente | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| NAC Breda | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Feyenoord | L 0–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Telstar | W 2–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Utrecht | W 1–0 A | L 1–3 A |
| Heracles | W 4–0 H | W 3–0 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 2–4 A | L 0–3 A |
| Heerenveen | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 1–4 A | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 23 of 42 · 1.64 per game | 14 of 42 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Groningen | FC Volendam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.27 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.07 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 93% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 73% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 73% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 7% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 20% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Groningen | FC Volendam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 3.10 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 80% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Groningen | FC Volendam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.86 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.79 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 9.65 | 10.00 | 10.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 9/14 | 64% 9/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 6/14 | 57% 8/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 5/14 | 43% 6/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.93 | 1.13 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.87 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.33 | 3.58 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 9/15 | 40% 6/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 27% 4/15 | 33% 5/15 | |
| Groningen | FC Volendam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.56 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 5.89 | |
| Match total | 10.12 | 9.89 | 10.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.40 | 3.58 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Danny Makkelie Netherlands · 98 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.35league 3.35
Red cards0.12league 0.22
Cards 5+27%league 32%
Fouls21.6league 21.9
Penalties0.30league 0.29
Home wins43%league 47%
Groningen4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L23 Aug 25A · PSV Eindhoven2–42
- W25 Jan 25H · Heerenveen1–00
- W9 Nov 24H · Sparta Rotterdam1–01
- D14 Sep 24H · Feyenoord2–23
FC Volendam2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W25 Oct 25H · Heracles3–00
- D18 Feb 24A · Vitesse1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Groningen15 games · scored 21 · conceded 21
2
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
7
46-60
3
3
61-75
6
3
76-90
FC Volendam15 games · scored 19 · conceded 27
1
6
0-15
2
4
16-30
4
5
31-45
4
5
46-60
4
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
Groningen10 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
5
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
FC Volendam10 games · scored 13 · conceded 18
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
4
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
