Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard – 25 Jan 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Jan 25 · 13:30 Euroborg, Groningen

Groningen 6th · 31 pts · 19 played WWDDW

First leg2–1 1–2Full time

Fortuna Sittard 12th · 22 pts · 19 played LLWDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Groningen were slight favourites.

Groningen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (28 vs 18). Groningen had 7.1 days of rest, Fortuna Sittard 7.8 and had to travel 251 km.

Away travel251 kmRest days7.1 · 7.8Matches / 14d1 · 2

Groningen54%

Draw24%

Fortuna Sittard22%

Expected goals 1.82 – 1.11

Groningen52%

Draw25%

Fortuna Sittard23%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.05

Groningen53%

Draw24%

Fortuna Sittard22%

Expected goals 1.78 – 1.08

Groningen46%

Draw26%

Fortuna Sittard29%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.24

Groningen52%

Draw25%

Fortuna Sittard23%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.09

Over 2.5 56% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Groningen)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsIngmar Oostrom

Cards per match 3.6
Penalties per match 0.28
Matches 25

Team strength

Groningen

Fortuna Sittard

28 L90 StrengthIn forecast 18

30 Current StrengthIn forecast 21

41 AttackIn forecast 19

21 DefenceIn forecast 19

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Groningen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Fortuna Sittard

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Groningen

Fortuna Sittard

1.42 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.47

1.16 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.74

1.62 xGVia Att/Def 1.13

1.11 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.60

-0.20 Goals minus xGContext +0.34

74% Scored inContext 84%

37% Clean sheetsContext 16%

15.32 ShotsContext 13.00

6.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.67

40% On target shareContext 34%

8.74 Shots in the boxContext 8.26

58% Box shareContext 63%

9% ConversionContext 11%

1.93 OffsidesContext 1.94

10.74 Shots allowedContext 14.26

3.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.58

2.69 BlocksContext 4.06

2.81 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

67% Save rateContext 72%

52% PossessionIn forecast 46%

415 PassesContext 362

334 Accurate passesContext 280

80% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.76

10.63 FoulsContext 13.16

10.32 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

1.58 Yellow cardsContext 2.26

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.05

This league season, per match · 19 and 19 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.93 xGVia Att/Def 1.16

1.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.72

-0.63 Goals minus xGContext +0.34

70% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

17.30 ShotsContext 13.10

6.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

38% On target shareContext 34%

9.80 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

58% Box shareContext 61%

8% ConversionContext 12%

1.75 OffsidesContext 1.67

9.90 Shots allowedContext 15.20

3.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.20

2.50 BlocksContext 4.56

2.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.40

66% Save rateContext 71%

53% PossessionIn forecast 43%

432 PassesContext 336

352 Accurate passesContext 258

81% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.74

9.30 FoulsContext 13.00

9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Groningen

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km104 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Fortuna Sittard

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel251 km282 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Groningen	Fortuna Sittard
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 18 Jan	7.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 17 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	251 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	104 km	282 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6.3	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Groningen Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1E. Vaessen(G)

43M. Peersman 4D. Janse 3T. Blokzijl 5M. Rente

6S. Resink 18T. Land

14J. Schreuders 10Y. Taha 17D. van der Werff

26T. van Bergen

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Fortuna Sittard Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

31M. Branderhorst(G)

21N. Kasanwirjo 44Iván Márquez 4S. Adewoye

28J. Hubner 20É. Michut 23P. Brittijn 12Ivo Pinto

70L. Duijvestijn 52M. Ihattaren

9K. Sierhuis

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Groningen Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Fortuna Sittard Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Groningen+0.2 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Fortuna Sittard+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Groningen · Home 1.67points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 4-3-2
Scored: 1.56
Conceded: 0.78

Fortuna Sittard · Away 0.56points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-6
Scored: 1.22
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Groningen	Fortuna Sittard
Heerenveen	W 2–0 AW 2–1 H	W 2–0 H
NAC Breda	D 0–0 HW 2–1 A	L 1–2 A
GO Ahead Eagles	D 1–1 A	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H
FC Volendam	W 3–0 H	W 1–0 H
Excelsior	W 2–0 A	L 0–1 A
Ajax	L 0–2 A	L 1–3 H
PEC Zwolle	D 2–2 H	L 0–1 A
NEC Nijmegen	L 0–2 A	W 3–2 H
Twente	D 1–1 H	L 2–3 A
Sparta Rotterdam	L 0–2 H	D 1–1 A
Feyenoord	L 0–1 H	L 0–2 A
Telstar	W 2–0 H	W 3–1 A
Utrecht	W 1–0 A	W 1–0 H
Heracles	W 4–0 H	D 1–1 H
PSV Eindhoven	L 2–4 A	L 1–2 HL 2–5 A
AZ Alkmaar	L 1–4 A	W 4–3 H
Points	28 of 54 · 1.56 per game	22 of 54 · 1.22 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

2 Groningen wins0 draws1 Fortuna Sittard wins

Goals per game1.00 – 0.67 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets33% · 33%

25 Oct 2025Fortuna Sittard1–2Groningen
16 Mar 2025Groningen1–0Fortuna Sittard
26 Oct 2024Fortuna Sittard1–0Groningen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Groningen	Fortuna Sittard	Forecast
Scored per game	1.42	1.47
Conceded per game	1.16	1.74
Match goals	2.58	3.21	2.93
Over 1.5	84%	79%
Over 2.5	42%	58%	56%
Over 3.5	21%	42%
Both teams scored	42%	68%	57%
Clean sheets	37%	16%
Failed to score	26%	16%
Games	19	19

	Groningen	Fortuna Sittard	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.50
Conceded per game	0.90	2.00
Match goals	2.20	3.50	2.93
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	30%	60%	56%
Over 3.5	10%	40%
Both teams scored	40%	80%	57%
Clean sheets	40%	10%
Failed to score	30%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Groningen	Fortuna Sittard	League
Corners
Corners won	5.72	4.94
Corners conceded	4.22	6.11
Match total	9.94	11.05	10.21
Over 8.5	67% 12/18	83% 15/18
Over 9.5	39% 7/18	67% 12/18
Over 10.5	33% 6/18	56% 10/18
Cards
Cards	1.68	2.32
Opponent cards	1.84	1.47
Match total	3.52	3.79	3.58
Over 3.5	47% 9/19	42% 8/19
Over 4.5	21% 4/19	37% 7/19

	Groningen	Fortuna Sittard	League
Corners
Corners won	6.89	5.70
Corners conceded	3.67	6.50
Match total	10.56	12.20	10.21
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	1.10	2.40
Opponent cards	2.10	1.60
Match total	3.20	4.00	3.58
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ingmar Oostrom Netherlands · 25 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.36league 3.37

Red cards0.24league 0.21

Cards 5+36%league 31%

Fouls22.0league 21.6

Penalties0.28league 0.27

Home wins48%league 45%

Groningen2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.0.0 · 3.5 Pens for · against1 · 0

D21 Dec 25A · GO Ahead Eagles1–10
W23 Apr 25H · Heracles4–10

Fortuna Sittard2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

W4 Oct 25H · FC Volendam1–01
L29 Mar 25H · Sparta Rotterdam0–33

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.