Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Jan 25 · 13:30 Euroborg, Groningen
Groningen 6th · 31 pts · 19 played
First leg2–1 1–2Full time
Fortuna Sittard 12th · 22 pts · 19 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Groningen53.5%fair odds 1.87
Draw24.1%fair odds 4.15
Fortuna Sittard22.4%fair odds 4.46
Expected goals1.82 – 1.11total 2.93
Likeliest score1–111.3%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

Groningen

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Fortuna Sittard

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

Groningen ↓ · Fortuna Sittard →0123456+
05.95.33.31.20.30.10.0
19.111.36.02.20.60.10.0
28.99.85.42.00.60.10.0
35.46.03.31.20.30.10.0
42.52.71.50.60.20.00.0
50.91.00.50.20.10.00.0
6+0.40.40.20.10.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Groningen goals, columns Fortuna Sittard goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–111.3%8.81
  • 2–19.8%10.18
  • 1–09.1%10.93
  • 2–08.9%11.29
  • 1–26.0%16.75
  • 3–16.0%16.76
  • 0–05.9%16.94
  • 2–25.4%18.37
  • 3–05.4%18.58
  • 0–15.3%18.73

Winning margin

14.1% Groningen by 3+ fair 7.11
16.6% Groningen by 2 fair 6.04
22.9% Groningen by 1 fair 4.37
24.1% Draw fair 4.15
13.7% Fortuna Sittard by 1 fair 7.30
6.1% Fortuna Sittard by 2 fair 16.34
2.6% Fortuna Sittard by 3+ fair 38.73

Goal distribution

Total goals

6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+

Groningen goals

16%0
29%1
27%2
16%3
11%4+

Fortuna Sittard goals

33%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
3%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
Groningen win 53.5% 52.5% +1.0 pp
Draw 24.1% 24.7% -0.6 pp
Fortuna Sittard win 22.4% 22.9% -0.5 pp
Over 2.5 56.1% 54.2% +1.9 pp
Both teams score 56.7% 55.5% +1.2 pp
Expected goals Groningen 1.82 1.76 +0.06
Expected goals Fortuna Sittard 1.11 1.09 +0.02

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • Groningen win53.5%1.87
  • Draw24.1%4.15
  • Fortuna Sittard win22.4%4.46
  • Double chance Groningen or draw77.6%1.29
  • Double chance Groningen or Fortuna Sittard75.9%1.32
  • Double chance Fortuna Sittard or draw46.5%2.15
  • Draw no bet Groningen70.5%1.42
  • Draw no bet Fortuna Sittard29.5%3.39

Goals

  • Over 0.594.1%1.06
  • Over 1.579.6%1.26
  • Over 2.556.1%1.78
  • Over 3.533.7%2.96
  • Over 4.517.3%5.77
  • Under 1.520.4%4.90
  • Under 2.543.9%2.28
  • Under 3.566.3%1.51

Both teams to score

  • Yes56.7%1.76
  • No43.3%2.31
  • Yes and over 2.545.4%2.20
  • Groningen win and yes26.4%3.79
  • Draw and yes18.2%5.50
  • Fortuna Sittard win and yes12.2%8.23

Team goals

  • Groningen over 0.583.8%1.19
  • Groningen over 1.554.4%1.84
  • Groningen over 2.527.6%3.63
  • Fortuna Sittard over 0.567.0%1.49
  • Fortuna Sittard over 1.530.4%3.29
  • Fortuna Sittard over 2.510.1%9.87
  • Groningen clean sheet33.0%3.03
  • Fortuna Sittard clean sheet16.2%6.19
  • Groningen win to nil27.1%3.69
  • Fortuna Sittard win to nil10.3%9.76

Handicap

  • Groningen −1.530.6%3.27
  • Groningen −2.514.1%7.11
  • Fortuna Sittard +1.569.4%1.44
  • Fortuna Sittard +2.585.9%1.16
  • Fortuna Sittard −1.58.7%11.49
  • Groningen +1.591.3%1.10

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored175 Favourite won51.4% Avg chance given to result41.4% 1X2 Brier0.583 Over 2.5 called right62.9% BTTS called right61.1%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%3238.0%31.3%
40–50%6245.1%46.8%
50–60%4055.3%52.5%
60–70%2163.9%57.1%
70–80%1374.5%92.3%
80%+784.7%85.7%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 152 of 175 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.58730.5791
Avg chance given to result41.1%42.7%
Favourite won50.7%53.3%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 152 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 175 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.