Groningen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Groningen were slight favourites.
Groningen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (21 vs 15). Groningen had 6.1 days of rest, Heracles 5.1 and had to travel 96 km.
Away travel96 kmRest days6.1 · 5.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Groningen50%
Draw26%
Heracles24%
Groningen50%
Draw26%
Heracles24%
Groningen50%
Draw26%
Heracles24%
Groningen43%
Draw27%
Heracles30%
Groningen50%
Draw26%
Heracles24%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Groningen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsRob Dieperink
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 21
Team strength
Groningen
Heracles
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
15
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
9
41
AttackIn forecast
7
21
DefenceIn forecast
10
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHeracles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GroningenHeracles
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.33
3.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
3.33
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
0.70
1.77
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.59
+0.70
Goals minus xGContext
-0.37
100%
Scored inContext
33%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.67
ShotsContext
8.67
6.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
54%
On target shareContext
35%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
5.00
62%
Box shareContext
60%
14%
ConversionContext
4%
1.00
OffsidesContext
1.00
16.33
Shots allowedContext
23.33
5.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
9.33
5.00
BlocksContext
8.67
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.33
53%
Save rateContext
57%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
35%
368
PassesContext
283
281
Accurate passesContext
211
76%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.55
Team ratingContext
6.63
10.67
FoulsContext
13.33
12.33
Fouls sufferedContext
10.33
2.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.33
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.97
+0.75
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
80%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.40
ShotsContext
9.90
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.78
42%
On target shareContext
34%
7.10
Shots in the boxContext
5.88
58%
Box shareContext
61%
15%
ConversionContext
8%
1.00
OffsidesContext
1.33
12.80
Shots allowedContext
16.80
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.10
2.90
BlocksContext
4.90
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.40
55%
Save rateContext
62%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
388
PassesContext
341
305
Accurate passesContext
272
79%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.83
10.00
FoulsContext
12.10
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
9.10
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Groningen
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km422 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Heracles
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel96 km241 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Groningen |
Heracles |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 23 Aug | 5.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 24 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 96 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 422 km | 241 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15.8 | 15.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Groningen
Confirmed XI
1E. Vaessen(G)
43M. Peersman
4D. Janse
3T. Blokzijl
5M. Rente
6S. Resink
8T. de Jonge
14J. Schreuders
10Y. Taha
26T. van Bergen
9B. Willumsson
Heracles
Confirmed XI
1F. de Keijzer(G)
5D. van der Kust
24I. Mesík
4D. Mirani
2M. Benita
13J. Žambůrek
32S. Scheperman
17T. van Gilst
70A. Hrustić
7B. Limbombe
19L. Kulenović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Groningen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Heracles
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Groningen+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Heracles+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Groningen · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Heracles · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Groningen wins1 draws0 Heracles wins
Goals per game2.50 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 23 Apr 2025Groningen4–1Heracles
- 28 Jan 2025Heracles1–1Groningen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Groningen | Heracles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 0.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 3.33 | |
| Match goals | 4.67 | 3.67 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 67% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 33% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 67% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Groningen | Heracles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 0.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 3.33 | |
| Match goals | 4.67 | 3.67 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 67% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 33% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 67% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Groningen | Heracles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.67 | 2.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.67 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 9.34 | 9.67 | 10.46 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.67 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.33 | 3.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Groningen | Heracles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.20 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 10.70 | 10.46 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 0.80 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 2.70 | 3.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Rob Dieperink Netherlands · 21 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.19league 3.28
Red cards0.24league 0.12
Cards 5+33%league 32%
Fouls21.3league 22.4
Penalties0.24league 0.16
Home wins33%league 56%
Groningen1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L29 Sep 24H · GO Ahead Eagles0–12
Heracles1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W12 Jan 24A · Waalwijk2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Groningen3 games · scored 5 · conceded 9
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Heracles3 games · scored 1 · conceded 10
1
0-15
16-30
3
31-45
46-60
3
61-75
4
76-90
Groningen10 games · scored 19 · conceded 24
2
5
0-15
2
6
16-30
5
4
31-45
6
3
46-60
4
61-75
4
2
76-90
Heracles10 games · scored 8 · conceded 25
1
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
7
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
4
61-75
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
