Groningen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Groningen
6th · 27 pts · 17 played
DLWWD
First leg2–1
0–0Full time
NAC Breda
18th · 13 pts · 17 played
LLLDL
Our take
Groningen were slight favourites.
Groningen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (26 vs 14). Groningen had 20.3 days of rest, NAC Breda 21 and had to travel 218 km.
Away travel218 kmRest days20.3 · 21Matches / 14d0 · 0
Groningen57%
Draw23%
NAC Breda20%
Groningen56%
Draw24%
NAC Breda20%
Groningen57%
Draw23%
NAC Breda20%
Groningen49%
Draw25%
NAC Breda26%
Groningen56%
Draw24%
NAC Breda20%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Groningen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSerdar Gozubuyuk
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 86
Team strength
GroningenNAC Breda
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
14
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
14
41
AttackIn forecast
19
21
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNAC Breda
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GroningenNAC Breda
1.47
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.94
1.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.53
1.66
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.23
76%
Scored inContext
59%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
6%
15.53
ShotsContext
12.94
6.63
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.19
40%
On target shareContext
31%
8.82
Shots in the boxContext
8.06
57%
Box shareContext
61%
10%
ConversionContext
7%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.59
Shots allowedContext
12.29
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.12
2.50
BlocksContext
2.75
2.79
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.53
64%
Save rateContext
69%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
415
PassesContext
407
334
Accurate passesContext
326
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.76
10.71
FoulsContext
11.53
10.53
Fouls sufferedContext
13.24
1.59
Yellow cardsContext
1.71
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.18
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
-0.63
Goals minus xGContext
-0.17
70%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
17.10
ShotsContext
13.60
7.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
38%
On target shareContext
27%
9.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
55%
Box shareContext
58%
8%
ConversionContext
7%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.67
9.20
Shots allowedContext
9.90
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
2.00
BlocksContext
2.00
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
61%
Save rateContext
69%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
431
PassesContext
438
352
Accurate passesContext
356
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.74
9.80
FoulsContext
10.90
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Groningen
Rest20.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
NAC Breda
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel218 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Groningen |
NAC Breda |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 20.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 21 Dec | 21Eredivisie 2025-2026, 20 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 218 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.6 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Groningen
Confirmed XI
1E. Vaessen(G)
43M. Peersman
4D. Janse
3T. Blokzijl
5M. Rente
8T. de Jonge
6S. Resink
10Y. Taha
9B. Willumsson
14J. Schreuders
26T. van Bergen
NAC Breda
Confirmed XI
99D. Bielica(G)
4B. Kemper
22R. Hillen
3D. Odoi
25C. Valerius
7C. Brym
14K. Sowah
90L. Holtby
16M. Balard
9M. Soumano
17S. van Hooijdonk
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Groningen
Absences are shown before kick-off
NAC Breda
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Groningen+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- NAC Breda+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Groningen · Home
1.75points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-2
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 0.88
NAC Breda · Away
0.25points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-6
- Scored
- 0.88
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Groningen | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| FC Volendam | W 3–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Excelsior | W 2–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Ajax | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| PEC Zwolle | D 2–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 0–2 A | L 0–3 A |
| Twente | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 0–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Feyenoord | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Telstar | W 2–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Utrecht | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Heracles | W 4–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 2–4 A | L 0–1 H |
| Heerenveen | W 2–1 H | D 3–3 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 1–4 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 24 of 48 · 1.50 per game | 13 of 48 · 0.81 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 Groningen wins1 draws0 NAC Breda wins
Goals per game2.33 – 1.00
Over 2.567%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 3 Oct 2025NAC Breda1–2Groningen
- 29 Mar 2025NAC Breda1–1Groningen
- 9 Aug 2024Groningen4–1NAC Breda
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Groningen | NAC Breda | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.47 | 0.94 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.29 | 1.53 | |
| Match goals | 2.76 | 2.47 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 65% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 53% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 53% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 6% | |
| Failed to score | 24% | 41% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| Groningen | NAC Breda | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.30 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Groningen | NAC Breda | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.88 | 5.41 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.31 | 3.76 | |
| Match total | 10.19 | 9.17 | 10.24 |
| Over 8.5 | 69% 11/16 | 59% 10/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 7/16 | 41% 7/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 6/16 | 41% 7/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.71 | 1.94 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.88 | 2.18 | |
| Match total | 3.59 | 4.12 | 3.59 |
| Over 3.5 | 53% 9/17 | 59% 10/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 24% 4/17 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Groningen | NAC Breda | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.33 | 6.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.11 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 11.44 | 9.80 | 10.24 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.90 | 3.59 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Serdar Gozubuyuk Netherlands · 86 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.05league 3.36
Red cards0.12league 0.22
Cards 5+43%league 32%
Fouls23.4league 21.7
Penalties0.31league 0.30
Home wins48%league 47%
Groningen4 with this referee
Record1-0-3
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L10 Aug 25A · AZ Alkmaar1–42
- W3 May 25H · Waalwijk6–10
- L18 Jan 25A · GO Ahead Eagles1–21
- L20 Oct 24H · Utrecht0–12
NAC Breda3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L29 Nov 25A · Excelsior0–11
- D7 Mar 25H · Sparta Rotterdam1–11
- W7 Dec 24A · Sparta Rotterdam2–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Groningen17 games · scored 25 · conceded 22
2
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
6
3
31-45
2
7
46-60
5
3
61-75
7
3
76-90
NAC Breda17 games · scored 16 · conceded 26
1
4
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
5
5
46-60
3
61-75
4
7
76-90
Groningen10 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
4
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
NAC Breda10 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
