Groningen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Groningen
6th · 27 pts · 17 played
DLWWD
First leg2–1
0–0Full time
NAC Breda
18th · 13 pts · 17 played
LLLDL
Groningen56.9%fair odds 1.76
Draw23.2%fair odds 4.30
NAC Breda19.8%fair odds 5.04
Expected goals1.91 – 1.04total 2.95
Likeliest score1–111.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
NAC Breda
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Groningen ↓ · NAC Breda → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.0 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Groningen goals, columns NAC Breda goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.0%9.12
- 2–19.9%10.08
- 2–09.5%10.52
- 1–09.4%10.61
- 3–16.3%15.86
- 3–06.0%16.55
- 0–05.8%17.29
- 1–25.4%18.39
- 2–25.2%19.30
- 0–14.9%20.36
Winning margin
16.1%
Groningen by 3+
fair 6.22
17.6%
Groningen by 2
fair 5.68
23.2%
Groningen by 1
fair 4.30
23.2%
Draw
fair 4.30
12.5%
NAC Breda by 1
fair 8.01
5.3%
NAC Breda by 2
fair 18.93
2.1%
NAC Breda by 3+
fair 48.39
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
Groningen goals
15%0
28%1
27%2
17%3
13%4+
NAC Breda goals
35%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Groningen win | 56.9% | 55.9% | +1.0 pp |
| Draw | 23.2% | 24.2% | -0.9 pp |
| NAC Breda win | 19.8% | 19.9% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.6% | 52.9% | +3.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.7% | 53.1% | +2.6 pp |
| Expected goals Groningen | 1.91 | 1.80 | +0.10 |
| Expected goals NAC Breda | 1.04 | 0.99 | +0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Groningen win56.9%1.76
- Draw23.2%4.30
- NAC Breda win19.8%5.04
- Double chance Groningen or draw80.2%1.25
- Double chance Groningen or NAC Breda76.8%1.30
- Double chance NAC Breda or draw43.1%2.32
- Draw no bet Groningen74.2%1.35
- Draw no bet NAC Breda25.8%3.87
Goals
- Over 0.594.2%1.06
- Over 1.579.9%1.25
- Over 2.556.6%1.77
- Over 3.534.2%2.93
- Over 4.517.6%5.67
- Under 1.520.1%4.97
- Under 2.543.4%2.30
- Under 3.565.8%1.52
Both teams to score
- Yes55.7%1.79
- No44.3%2.26
- Yes and over 2.544.8%2.23
- Groningen win and yes27.5%3.63
- Draw and yes17.4%5.73
- NAC Breda win and yes10.8%9.30
Team goals
- Groningen over 0.585.1%1.17
- Groningen over 1.556.8%1.76
- Groningen over 2.529.8%3.36
- NAC Breda over 0.564.8%1.54
- NAC Breda over 1.528.0%3.57
- NAC Breda over 2.58.9%11.29
- Groningen clean sheet35.2%2.84
- NAC Breda clean sheet14.9%6.73
- Groningen win to nil29.4%3.40
- NAC Breda win to nil9.1%11.01
Handicap
- Groningen −1.533.7%2.97
- Groningen −2.516.1%6.22
- NAC Breda +1.566.3%1.51
- NAC Breda +2.583.9%1.19
- NAC Breda −1.57.3%13.61
- Groningen +1.592.7%1.08
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored155
Favourite won52.9%
Avg chance given to result42.2%
1X2 Brier0.566
Over 2.5 called right63.2%
BTTS called right60.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 31 | 38.0% | 32.3% |
| 40–50% | 53 | 44.8% | 45.3% |
| 50–60% | 37 | 55.3% | 54.1% |
| 60–70% | 17 | 64.1% | 70.6% |
| 70–80% | 11 | 74.6% | 90.9% |
| 80%+ | 6 | 84.3% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 132 of 155 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5673 | 0.5564 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.9% | 43.7% |
| Favourite won | 52.3% | 55.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 132 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 155 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.