Guimaraes vs Arouca – 30 Aug 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 4 Sat, Aug 30 · 18:00 Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães

Guimaraes 10th · 3 pts · 3 played LWL

1–1Full time

Arouca 9th · 4 pts · 3 played WLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Guimaraes were slight favourites.

Guimaraes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (44 vs 29). Guimaraes had 7.1 days of rest, Arouca 6.9 and had to travel 57 km.

Away travel57 kmRest days7.1 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Guimaraes54%

Draw25%

Arouca21%

Expected goals 1.71 – 0.99

Guimaraes54%

Draw25%

Arouca21%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.02

Guimaraes54%

Draw25%

Arouca21%

Expected goals 1.71 – 0.99

Guimaraes46%

Draw27%

Arouca27%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.11

Guimaraes54%

Draw25%

Arouca21%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.02

Over 2.5 51% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Guimarães)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalGustavo Correia

Cards per match 6.3
Penalties per match 0.40
Matches 55

Team strength

Guimaraes

Arouca

44 L90 StrengthIn forecast 29

27 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

28 AttackIn forecast 28

39 DefenceIn forecast 37

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Guimaraes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Arouca

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Guimaraes

Arouca

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

2.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 3.33

0.96 xGVia Att/Def 0.64

1.59 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.84

+0.04 Goals minus xGContext +1.36

33% Scored inContext 67%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

11.67 ShotsContext 9.33

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.33

26% On target shareContext 36%

5.33 Shots in the boxContext 6.33

46% Box shareContext 61%

9% ConversionContext 21%

2.67 OffsidesContext —

12.67 Shots allowedContext 16.33

6.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.33

2.33 BlocksContext 3.67

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

67% Save rateContext 42%

53% PossessionIn forecast 50%

390 PassesContext 432

320 Accurate passesContext 370

82% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.64 Team ratingContext 6.51

13.67 FoulsContext 11.00

17.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.67

3.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.67

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.33

This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.04 xGVia Att/Def 1.22

1.32 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40

+0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.28

60% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.40 ShotsContext 12.10

3.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

26% On target shareContext 40%

7.60 Shots in the boxContext 7.40

60% Box shareContext 61%

10% ConversionContext 12%

2.22 OffsidesContext 1.75

11.60 Shots allowedContext 13.20

4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.33

1.80 BlocksContext 3.60

3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

71% Save rateContext 56%

55% PossessionIn forecast 54%

425 PassesContext 412

354 Accurate passesContext 338

83% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.82

14.00 FoulsContext 13.60

13.40 Fouls sufferedContext 13.50

3.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Guimaraes

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km15 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Arouca

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel57 km514 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Guimaraes	Arouca
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 23 Aug	6.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 23 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	57 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	15 km	514 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	14.9	15

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Guimaraes Confirmed XI

3-4-3

27Charles(G)

26R. Abascal 4Óscar Rivas 2Miguel Maga

13J. Teixeira Mendes 30Gonçalo Nogueira 16Beni 18Telmo Arcanjo

11Gustavo Silva 7Nélson Oliveira 88M. Nogueira

Arouca Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1João Valido(G)

44A. Dante 3José Fontán 4M. Rocha 28Tiago Esgaio

21T. Fukui 8David Simão

7N. Djouahra 14Lee Hyun-Ju 19A. Trezza

23D. Nandin

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Guimaraes Absences are shown before kick-off

Arouca Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Guimaraes+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Arouca+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Guimaraes · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 3.00
Conceded: 2.00

Arouca · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 6.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

3 Guimaraes wins2 draws1 Arouca wins

Goals per game1.67 – 1.33 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets17% · 17%

18 Jan 2025Guimaraes2–2Arouca
12 Aug 2024Arouca0–1Guimaraes
18 May 2024Arouca1–3Guimaraes
15 Jan 2024Guimaraes2–1Arouca
11 Mar 2023Guimaraes0–2Arouca
18 Sep 2022Arouca2–2Guimaraes

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Guimaraes	Arouca	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.00
Conceded per game	2.33	3.33
Match goals	3.33	5.33	2.70
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	67%	100%	51%
Over 3.5	33%	100%
Both teams scored	33%	67%	52%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	67%	33%
Games	3	3

	Guimaraes	Arouca	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.00
Conceded per game	2.33	3.33
Match goals	3.33	5.33	2.70
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	67%	100%	51%
Over 3.5	33%	100%
Both teams scored	33%	67%	52%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	67%	33%
Games	3	3

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Guimaraes	Arouca	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	3.00
Corners conceded	4.00	4.00
Match total	9.00	7.00	9.25
Over 8.5	67% 2/3	33% 1/3
Over 9.5	67% 2/3	0% 0/3
Over 10.5	33% 1/3	0% 0/3
Cards
Cards	3.00	2.00
Opponent cards	3.00	1.00
Match total	6.00	3.00	4.92
Over 3.5	100% 3/3	33% 1/3
Over 4.5	67% 2/3	33% 1/3

	Guimaraes	Arouca	League
Corners
Corners won	6.30	3.22
Corners conceded	3.80	5.44
Match total	10.10	8.66	9.25
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	3.00	2.80
Opponent cards	2.60	2.40
Match total	5.60	5.20	4.92
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Gustavo Correia Portugal · 55 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.89league 4.93

Red cards0.42league 0.19

Cards 5+73%league 59%

Fouls29.3league 28.4

Penalties0.40league 0.33

Home wins42%league 41%

Guimaraes7 with this referee

Record3-1-3 Cards · opp.2.3 · 4.0 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

L19 Apr 25H · Benfica0–32
L10 Nov 24A · Santa Clara0–15
W12 Aug 24A · Arouca1–02
W17 Mar 24A · Chaves2–13
W15 Jan 24H · Arouca2–10

Arouca7 with this referee

Record3-1-3 Cards · opp.3.6 · 2.9 Pens for · against3 · 1 Reds1

W4 Jan 25A · Boavista3–17
L12 Aug 24H · Guimaraes0–17
D26 Apr 24A · GIL Vicente2–21
L15 Jan 24A · Guimaraes1–23
W20 May 23H · Chaves1–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.