Guimaraes vs Benfica – 1 Nov 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 10 Sat, Nov 1 · 20:30 Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães

Guimaraes 11th · 11 pts · 9 played WDLWL

0–3Full time

Benfica 3rd · 21 pts · 9 played WDWDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Benfica were slight favourites.

Benfica were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 41). Guimaraes had 6.2 days of rest, Benfica 7 and had to travel 311 km.

Away travel311 kmRest days6.2 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Guimaraes23%

Draw26%

Benfica52%

Expected goals 1.02 – 1.66

Guimaraes23%

Draw25%

Benfica52%

Expected goals 1.05 – 1.70

Guimaraes23%

Draw26%

Benfica52%

Expected goals 1.02 – 1.66

Guimaraes17%

Draw23%

Benfica59%

Expected goals 0.91 – 1.86

Guimaraes23%

Draw25%

Benfica52%

Expected goals 1.05 – 1.70

Over 2.5 50% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Guimarães)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalJoao Pedro Pinheiro

Cards per match 4.6
Penalties per match 0.27
Matches 83

Team strength

Guimaraes

Benfica

41 L90 StrengthIn forecast 77

27 Current StrengthIn forecast 82

28 AttackIn forecast 81

39 DefenceIn forecast 81

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Guimaraes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Benfica

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Guimaraes

Benfica

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.56 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.44

1.07 xGVia Att/Def 1.82

1.11 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.80

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.18

56% Scored inContext 89%

11% Clean sheetsContext 56%

12.78 ShotsContext 13.56

3.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.22

30% On target shareContext 39%

6.22 Shots in the boxContext 9.11

50% Box shareContext 64%

8% ConversionContext 15%

2.86 OffsidesContext 2.17

11.89 Shots allowedContext 9.33

4.78 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.75

3.14 BlocksContext 2.00

3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.38

74% Save rateContext 90%

50% PossessionIn forecast 60%

368 PassesContext 492

299 Accurate passesContext 422

81% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.75 Team ratingContext 7.08

14.22 FoulsContext 13.11

15.44 Fouls sufferedContext 14.56

2.33 Yellow cardsContext 2.44

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

0.97 xGVia Att/Def 1.40

1.20 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.04

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.20

50% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.70 ShotsContext 12.10

3.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.30

29% On target shareContext 36%

5.70 Shots in the boxContext 7.30

50% Box shareContext 58%

8% ConversionContext 13%

2.75 OffsidesContext 2.14

12.30 Shots allowedContext 9.30

4.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33

3.00 BlocksContext 1.90

3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

74% Save rateContext 77%

50% PossessionIn forecast 56%

369 PassesContext 478

302 Accurate passesContext 409

82% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.95

14.50 FoulsContext 11.80

15.30 Fouls sufferedContext 14.20

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Guimaraes

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km38 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Benfica

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel311 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Guimaraes	Benfica
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 26 Oct	7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 25 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	311 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	38 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Guimaraes Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25Juan Castillo(G)

13J. Teixeira Mendes 26R. Abascal 4Óscar Rivas 2Miguel Maga

23Diogo Sousa 16Beni

22Fabio Blanco 20Samu 18Telmo Arcanjo

19O. Camara

Benfica Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Trubin(G)

26S. Dahl 30N. Otamendi 44Tomás Araújo 8F. Aursnes

5E. Barrenechea 20Richard Ríos

25G. Prestianni 10H. Sudakov 11D. Lukébakio

14V. Pavlidis

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Guimaraes Absences are shown before kick-off

Benfica Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Guimaraes+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Benfica+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Guimaraes · Home 2.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 2-2-0
Scored: 1.75
Conceded: 1.25

Benfica · Away 2.50points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 3-1-0
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 0.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	Guimaraes	Benfica
Santa Clara	W 2–1 H	D 1–1 H
Alverca	L 0–2 A	W 2–1 A
Estrela	W 2–0 A	W 1–0 A
Arouca	D 1–1 H	W 5–0 H
FC Porto	L 0–3 A	D 0–0 A
Points	7 of 15 · 1.40 per game	11 of 15 · 2.20 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

0 Guimaraes wins2 draws4 Benfica wins

Goals per game0.50 – 2.50 Over 2.567% Both scored33% Clean sheets17% · 67%

19 Apr 2025Guimaraes0–3Benfica
7 Dec 2024Benfica1–0Guimaraes
11 Feb 2024Guimaraes2–2Benfica
2 Sep 2023Benfica4–0Guimaraes
18 Mar 2023Benfica5–1Guimaraes
1 Oct 2022Guimaraes0–0Benfica

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Guimaraes	Benfica	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.00
Conceded per game	1.56	0.44
Match goals	2.56	2.44	2.68
Over 1.5	100%	78%
Over 2.5	33%	56%	50%
Over 3.5	11%	11%
Both teams scored	44%	44%	52%
Clean sheets	11%	56%
Failed to score	44%	11%
Games	9	9

	Guimaraes	Benfica	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.00
Conceded per game	1.56	0.44
Match goals	2.56	2.44	2.68
Over 1.5	100%	78%
Over 2.5	33%	56%	50%
Over 3.5	11%	11%
Both teams scored	44%	44%	52%
Clean sheets	11%	56%
Failed to score	44%	11%
Games	9	9

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Guimaraes	Benfica	League
Corners
Corners won	4.22	5.75
Corners conceded	3.11	3.13
Match total	7.33	8.88	9.27
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	38% 3/8
Over 10.5	11% 1/9	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	2.33	2.56
Opponent cards	3.00	2.78
Match total	5.33	5.34	5.40
Over 3.5	67% 6/9	78% 7/9
Over 4.5	56% 5/9	56% 5/9

	Guimaraes	Benfica	League
Corners
Corners won	3.90	5.67
Corners conceded	3.50	3.78
Match total	7.40	9.45	9.27
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	10% 1/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.50	2.40
Opponent cards	3.00	2.60
Match total	5.50	5.00	5.40
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Joao Pedro Pinheiro Portugal · 83 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.41league 5.15

Red cards0.19league 0.27

Cards 5+46%league 62%

Fouls26.3league 27.8

Penalties0.27league 0.48

Home wins43%league 36%

Guimaraes9 with this referee

Record4-3-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.8 Pens for · against3 · 1

L23 Aug 25A · Moreirense0–22
W9 Mar 25A · Boavista2–11
D23 Dec 24H · Nacional2–21
L25 Aug 24A · AVS0–13
D6 Jan 24A · SC Braga1–10

Benfica14 with this referee

Record8-3-3 Cards · opp.2.4 · 3.0 Pens for · against3 · 0 Reds1

D12 Sep 25H · Santa Clara1–11
D10 May 25H · Sporting CP1–14
W6 Apr 25A · FC Porto4–11
W2 Feb 25A · Estrela3–22
W23 Sep 24A · Boavista3–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.