Guimaraes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Guimaraes were slight favourites.
Guimaraes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 32). Guimaraes had 10 days of rest, GIL Vicente 9 and had to travel 29 km.
Away travel29 kmRest days10 · 9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Guimaraes49%
Draw27%
GIL Vicente24%
Guimaraes50%
Draw26%
GIL Vicente24%
Guimaraes49%
Draw27%
GIL Vicente24%
Guimaraes42%
Draw28%
GIL Vicente30%
Guimaraes50%
Draw26%
GIL Vicente24%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Guimarães)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalAnzhony Rodrigues
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 12
Team strength
Guimaraes
GIL Vicente
42
L90 StrengthIn forecast
32
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
28
AttackIn forecast
32
39
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGIL Vicente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GuimaraesGIL Vicente
1.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.42
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
58%
Scored inContext
75%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
12.25
ShotsContext
13.17
3.58
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.42
29%
On target shareContext
34%
6.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
53%
Box shareContext
57%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
2.60
OffsidesContext
1.71
12.75
Shots allowedContext
10.92
4.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.09
3.50
BlocksContext
2.67
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.45
76%
Save rateContext
84%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
358
PassesContext
348
292
Accurate passesContext
278
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.86
13.33
FoulsContext
15.00
14.83
Fouls sufferedContext
14.08
2.17
Yellow cardsContext
2.75
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.40
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.02
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
60%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
70%
12.10
ShotsContext
13.40
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
31%
On target shareContext
37%
6.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
54%
Box shareContext
56%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.83
12.50
Shots allowedContext
10.20
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
3.88
BlocksContext
2.57
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
77%
Save rateContext
87%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
350
PassesContext
365
284
Accurate passesContext
294
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.90
13.50
FoulsContext
15.60
14.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Guimaraes
Rest10 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
GIL Vicente
Rest9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel29 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Guimaraes |
GIL Vicente |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 10Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 28 Nov | 9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 29 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 29 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.9 | 4.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Guimaraes
Confirmed XI
25Juan Castillo(G)
13J. Teixeira Mendes
26R. Abascal
4Óscar Rivas
2Miguel Maga
30Gonçalo Nogueira
16Beni
48N. Saviolo
20Samu
19O. Camara
7Nélson Oliveira
GIL Vicente
Confirmed XI
42Andrew(G)
3G. Konan
39Jonathan Buatu
48Espigares
2Zé Carlos
10Luís Esteves
5F. Cáseres
11Joelson Fernandes
95Santi García
77Murilo
89Gustavo Varela
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Guimaraes
Absences are shown before kick-off
GIL Vicente
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Guimaraes+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- GIL Vicente+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Guimaraes · Home
1.83points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-1
- Scored
- 1.83
- Conceded
- 1.33
GIL Vicente · Away
1.83points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 11 this season
| Opponent | Guimaraes | GIL Vicente |
|---|---|---|
| AVS | W 4–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Tondela | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Benfica | L 0–3 H | L 1–2 A |
| Famalicao | L 0–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Santa Clara | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Alverca | L 0–2 A | W 4–0 A |
| SC Braga | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Estrela | W 2–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Moreirense | L 0–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Estoril | W 3–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| FC Porto | L 0–3 A | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 16 of 33 · 1.45 per game | 20 of 33 · 1.82 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
4 Guimaraes wins0 draws2 GIL Vicente wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.67
Over 2.550%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets50% · 17%
- 11 Apr 2025GIL Vicente0–1Guimaraes
- 2 Dec 2024Guimaraes4–0GIL Vicente
- 28 Jan 2024GIL Vicente1–0Guimaraes
- 19 Aug 2023Guimaraes2–1GIL Vicente
- 21 May 2023Guimaraes1–0GIL Vicente
- 16 Jan 2023GIL Vicente2–1Guimaraes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Guimaraes | GIL Vicente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.42 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.58 | 1.83 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 92% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 42% | 17% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 8% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 17% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 42% | 25% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Guimaraes | GIL Vicente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 1.80 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 20% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 20% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 70% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Guimaraes | GIL Vicente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.17 | 5.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.33 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 10.00 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 6/12 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 3/12 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 8% 1/12 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.25 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.92 | 2.42 | |
| Match total | 5.17 | 5.42 | 5.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 8/12 | 83% 10/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 58% 7/12 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Guimaraes | GIL Vicente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 6.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.10 | 3.14 | |
| Match total | 7.30 | 9.28 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/10 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.10 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 5.00 | 5.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Anzhony Rodrigues Portugal · 12 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.92league 5.16
Red cards0.08league 0.29
Cards 5+42%league 64%
Fouls28.1league 27.5
Penalties0.17league 0.47
Home wins42%league 35%
GuimaraesNo previous matches with this referee.
GIL Vicente4 with this referee
Record0-1-3
Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L17 Feb 25H · Famalicao0–22
- L27 Jan 25A · AVS0–11
- L25 Oct 24A · Santa Clara1–25
- D25 Aug 24A · Estoril0–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Guimaraes12 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
GIL Vicente12 games · scored 16 · conceded 6
5
0-15
3
16-30
6
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Guimaraes10 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
GIL Vicente10 games · scored 14 · conceded 4
5
0-15
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
