Guimaraes vs Rio Ave – 25 Apr 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 31 Sat, Apr 25 · 20:30 Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães

Guimaraes 7th · 39 pts · 30 played LLWDW

2–0Full time

Rio Ave 12th · 34 pts · 30 played WWLWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Guimaraes were slight favourites.

Guimaraes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 23). Guimaraes had 7 days of rest, Rio Ave 8 and had to travel 39 km.

Away travel39 kmRest days7 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Guimaraes53%

Draw25%

Rio Ave22%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.05

Guimaraes53%

Draw25%

Rio Ave22%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.04

Guimaraes53%

Draw25%

Rio Ave22%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.05

Guimaraes46%

Draw26%

Rio Ave28%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.18

Guimaraes54%

Draw24%

Rio Ave22%

Expected goals 1.83 – 1.10

Over 2.5 53% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Guimarães)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalDavid Rafael Oliveira da Silva

Cards per match 6.4
Penalties per match 0.31
Matches 16

Team strength

Guimaraes

Rio Ave

35 L90 StrengthIn forecast 23

27 Current StrengthIn forecast 21

28 AttackIn forecast 18

39 DefenceIn forecast 21

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Guimaraes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Rio Ave

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Guimaraes

Rio Ave

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.43 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.67

1.22 xGVia Att/Def 1.02

1.24 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.51

-0.02 Goals minus xGContext +0.08

67% Scored inContext 63%

30% Clean sheetsContext 17%

13.00 ShotsContext 9.97

3.93 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.30

30% On target shareContext 39%

7.27 Shots in the boxContext 6.30

57% Box shareContext 60%

9% ConversionContext 11%

2.16 OffsidesContext 2.50

10.97 Shots allowedContext 15.00

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.13

3.13 BlocksContext 3.93

2.97 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.52

69% Save rateContext 67%

51% PossessionIn forecast 47%

376 PassesContext 381

309 Accurate passesContext 315

82% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.81

14.50 FoulsContext 12.53

14.93 Fouls sufferedContext 14.53

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.07 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 30 and 30 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.40 xGVia Att/Def 1.22

1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.19

+0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.12

80% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

13.40 ShotsContext 12.30

4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40

37% On target shareContext 36%

7.70 Shots in the boxContext 6.80

58% Box shareContext 54%

11% ConversionContext 9%

2.13 OffsidesContext 2.00

9.10 Shots allowedContext 11.30

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

2.86 BlocksContext 3.00

2.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

64% Save rateContext 74%

53% PossessionIn forecast 50%

406 PassesContext 404

338 Accurate passesContext 332

83% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.80

14.30 FoulsContext 12.40

15.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.90

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Guimaraes

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km57 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Rio Ave

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel39 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Guimaraes	Rio Ave
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 18 Apr	8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 17 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	39 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	57 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	9	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Guimaraes Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

27Charles(G)

13J. Teixeira Mendes 28Thiago Balieiro 4Óscar Rivas 2Miguel Maga

23Diogo Sousa 16Beni

48N. Saviolo 20Samu 19O. Camara

11Gustavo Silva

Rio Ave Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1C. Miszta(G)

6N. Abbey 39Gustavo Mancha 32J. Brabec 17M. Vrousai

5A. Ntoi 44T. Nikitscher

18D. Špikić 80O. Pohlmann 7Diogo Bezerra

11Jalen Blesa

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Guimaraes Absences are shown before kick-off

Rio Ave Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Guimaraes+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Rio Ave+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Guimaraes · Home 1.67points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 7-4-4
Scored: 1.60
Conceded: 1.20

Rio Ave · Away 1.33points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 5-5-5
Scored: 1.13
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Guimaraes	Rio Ave
GIL Vicente	W 1–0 AD 0–0 H	D 2–2 A
AVS	D 1–1 AW 4–0 H	D 2–2 HW 2–1 A
Tondela	W 5–0 HW 1–0 A	W 1–0 AW 3–0 H
Benfica	L 0–3 AL 0–3 H	L 0–2 HD 1–1 A
Famalicao	L 1–2 HL 0–2 A	D 0–0 HD 0–0 A
Santa Clara	L 0–2 AW 2–1 H	W 2–0 AD 1–1 H
Alverca	D 1–1 HL 0–2 A	L 1–2 HD 1–1 A
SC Braga	L 2–3 AD 1–1 H	L 0–3 AD 2–2 H
Estrela	W 2–1 HW 2–0 A	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A
Arouca	L 2–3 AD 1–1 H	L 0–3 HD 3–3 A
Moreirense	W 1–0 HL 0–2 A	L 1–2 HL 1–3 A
Estoril	L 2–4 AW 3–2 H	W 2–1 AL 0–4 H
FC Porto	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A	L 0–1 AL 0–3 H
Nacional	W 2–1 H	L 0–4 AD 1–1 H
Casa Pia	D 0–0 A	W 3–1 H
Sporting CP	L 1–4 H	L 0–4 A
Points	36 of 87 · 1.24 per game	34 of 87 · 1.17 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

4 Guimaraes wins2 draws1 Rio Ave wins

Goals per game1.29 – 0.57 Over 2.543% Both scored29% Clean sheets71% · 14%

13 Dec 2025Rio Ave0–1Guimaraes
27 Apr 2025Guimaraes3–0Rio Ave
16 Dec 2024Rio Ave2–2Guimaraes
4 May 2024Rio Ave2–1Guimaraes
23 Dec 2023Guimaraes1–0Rio Ave
14 May 2023Rio Ave0–1Guimaraes

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Guimaraes	Rio Ave	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.10
Conceded per game	1.43	1.67
Match goals	2.63	2.77	2.81
Over 1.5	77%	83%
Over 2.5	47%	63%	53%
Over 3.5	23%	30%
Both teams scored	43%	53%	54%
Clean sheets	30%	17%
Failed to score	33%	37%
Games	30	30

	Guimaraes	Rio Ave	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.10
Conceded per game	1.60	1.20
Match goals	3.10	2.30	2.81
Over 1.5	90%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	53%
Over 3.5	30%	10%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	54%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Guimaraes	Rio Ave	League
Corners
Corners won	4.39	4.10
Corners conceded	3.57	6.41
Match total	7.96	10.51	9.36
Over 8.5	46% 13/28	72% 21/29
Over 9.5	36% 10/28	62% 18/29
Over 10.5	21% 6/28	52% 15/29
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.53
Opponent cards	2.73	2.30
Match total	5.03	4.83	5.06
Over 3.5	67% 20/30	63% 19/30
Over 4.5	63% 19/30	53% 16/30

	Guimaraes	Rio Ave	League
Corners
Corners won	4.88	4.50
Corners conceded	3.75	5.40
Match total	8.63	9.90	9.36
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.60
Opponent cards	1.80	1.70
Match total	3.70	4.30	5.06
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · David Rafael Oliveira da Silva Portugal · 16 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards6.13league 4.79

Red cards0.25league 0.24

Cards 5+88%league 57%

Fouls29.4league 26.8

Penalties0.31league 0.43

Home wins50%league 41%

Guimaraes2 with this referee

Record0-0-2 Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.5 Pens for · against0 · 1

L8 Mar 26A · Santa Clara0–22
L11 May 25H · Farense1–24

Rio Ave1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L22 Feb 26A · FC Porto0–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.