Guimaraes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Guimaraes were slight favourites.
Guimaraes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 17). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Tondela. Guimaraes had 13 days of rest, Tondela 12.9 and had to travel 105 km.
Away travel105 kmRest days13 · 12.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Guimaraes53%
Draw27%
Tondela20%
Guimaraes57%
Draw24%
Tondela19%
Guimaraes53%
Draw27%
Tondela20%
Guimaraes46%
Draw29%
Tondela26%
Guimaraes54%
Draw26%
Tondela21%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Guimarães)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalCarlos Macedo
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 37
Team strength
Guimaraes
Tondela
33
L90 StrengthIn forecast
17
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
28
AttackIn forecast
16
39
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTondela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GuimaraesTondela
1.07
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.73
1.56
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.37
63%
Scored inContext
42%
26%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
13.11
ShotsContext
10.08
3.85
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.36
29%
On target shareContext
32%
7.22
Shots in the boxContext
6.35
56%
Box shareContext
62%
8%
ConversionContext
7%
2.23
OffsidesContext
2.90
11.11
Shots allowedContext
12.69
4.41
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.77
3.05
BlocksContext
3.36
2.96
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.63
67%
Save rateContext
74%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
376
PassesContext
314
309
Accurate passesContext
247
82%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.72
14.67
FoulsContext
14.08
15.11
Fouls sufferedContext
11.54
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
0.93
1.58
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
-0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.23
70%
Scored inContext
40%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.30
ShotsContext
8.50
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.89
31%
On target shareContext
31%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
59%
Box shareContext
67%
8%
ConversionContext
8%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.60
10.00
Shots allowedContext
12.20
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
2.63
BlocksContext
3.70
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
57%
Save rateContext
79%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
401
PassesContext
323
331
Accurate passesContext
254
83%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.63
Team ratingContext
6.78
15.80
FoulsContext
14.60
14.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Guimaraes
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km622 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Tondela
Rest12.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel105 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Guimaraes |
Tondela |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 21 Mar | 12.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 21 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 105 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 622 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 10.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Guimaraes
Confirmed XI
27Charles(G)
13J. Teixeira Mendes
28Thiago Balieiro
4Óscar Rivas
66T. Strata
30Gonçalo Nogueira
16Beni
19O. Camara
20Samu
88M. Nogueira
11Gustavo Silva
Tondela
Confirmed XI
31Bernardo Fontes(G)
60N. Maviram
20Brayan Medina
4Christian Marques
2Bebeto
10J. Hodge
32Juan Rodríguez
7Pedro Henryque
16Rony Lopes
26A. van der Heide
29J. Siebatcheu
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Guimaraes
Absences are shown before kick-off
Tondela
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Guimaraes+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Tondela+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Guimaraes · Home
1.57points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-4
- Scored
- 1.36
- Conceded
- 1.29
Tondela · Away
0.92points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-7
- Scored
- 0.83
- Conceded
- 1.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Guimaraes | Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| Benfica | L 0–3 AL 0–3 H | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Famalicao | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A | L 0–3 AL 0–1 H |
| Santa Clara | L 0–2 AW 2–1 H | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Alverca | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| SC Braga | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Estrela | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A | W 2–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Arouca | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Moreirense | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Estoril | L 2–4 AW 3–2 H | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H |
| FC Porto | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A | L 0–2 H |
| Nacional | W 2–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Casa Pia | D 0–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Sporting CP | L 1–4 H | L 0–3 H |
| Rio Ave | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A |
| GIL Vicente | D 0–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| AVS | W 4–0 H | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Points | 29 of 78 · 1.12 per game | 20 of 75 · 0.80 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Guimaraes wins0 draws0 Tondela wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 8 Nov 2025Tondela0–1Guimaraes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Guimaraes | Tondela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.07 | 0.73 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.56 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.63 | 2.23 | 2.43 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 62% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 50% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 23% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 35% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 26% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 37% | 58% | |
| Games | 27 | 26 |
| Guimaraes | Tondela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 1.80 | 2.43 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 30% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Guimaraes | Tondela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.52 | 3.73 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.44 | 5.54 | |
| Match total | 7.96 | 9.27 | 9.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 48% 12/25 | 50% 13/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 9/25 | 42% 11/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 5/25 | 38% 10/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.41 | 2.58 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.78 | 2.27 | |
| Match total | 5.19 | 4.85 | 5.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 19/27 | 69% 18/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 18/27 | 50% 13/26 | |
| Guimaraes | Tondela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.25 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.25 | 5.60 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 9.30 | 9.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.10 | 5.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Carlos Macedo Portugal · 37 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.11league 4.81
Red cards0.19league 0.26
Cards 5+43%league 57%
Fouls28.6league 27.0
Penalties0.30league 0.43
Home wins54%league 41%
Guimaraes2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W14 Feb 26H · Estrela2–13
- D28 Sep 24A · Casa Pia1–10
Tondela1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L25 Jan 26A · Famalicao0–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Guimaraes27 games · scored 29 · conceded 42
1
6
0-15
6
5
16-30
7
8
31-45
4
8
46-60
7
7
61-75
4
8
76-90
Tondela26 games · scored 19 · conceded 39
5
3
0-15
1
5
16-30
2
8
31-45
4
3
46-60
5
9
61-75
2
11
76-90
Guimaraes10 games · scored 11 · conceded 20
4
0-15
5
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
5
46-60
3
4
61-75
2
76-90
Tondela10 games · scored 7 · conceded 11
3
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
