Hamburger SV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Hamburger SV were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Hamburger SV had 6.9 days of rest, 1. FC Heidenheim 7 and had to travel 542 km.
Away travel542 kmRest days6.9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Hamburger SV45%
Draw26%
1. FC Heidenheim28%
Hamburger SV45%
Draw27%
1. FC Heidenheim29%
Hamburger SV45%
Draw27%
1. FC Heidenheim29%
Hamburger SV38%
Draw27%
1. FC Heidenheim35%
Hamburger SV45%
Draw27%
1. FC Heidenheim28%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hamburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyFlorian Exner
- Cards per match 5.1
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 15
Team strength
Hamburger SV
1. FC Heidenheim
30
L90 StrengthIn forecast
29
40
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
37
AttackIn forecast
48
43
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1. FC Heidenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Hamburger SV1. FC Heidenheim
0.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.33
2.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.33
0.49
xGVia Att/Def
0.64
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.32
-0.49
Goals minus xGContext
-0.31
0%
Scored inContext
33%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
7.00
ShotsContext
6.00
2.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.00
29%
On target shareContext
33%
2.00
Shots in the boxContext
3.00
34%
Box shareContext
53%
0%
ConversionContext
6%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.00
18.33
Shots allowedContext
16.00
7.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
4.33
BlocksContext
2.00
5.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
68%
Save rateContext
67%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
36%
368
PassesContext
294
303
Accurate passesContext
224
82%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.58
Team ratingContext
6.61
12.33
FoulsContext
9.00
13.33
Fouls sufferedContext
8.67
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.33
0.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
0.49
xGVia Att/Def
0.87
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.80
-0.29
Goals minus xGContext
-0.27
20%
Scored inContext
40%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
8.20
ShotsContext
8.90
2.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.80
27%
On target shareContext
32%
2.75
Shots in the boxContext
4.80
35%
Box shareContext
56%
2%
ConversionContext
7%
2.20
OffsidesContext
1.80
15.60
Shots allowedContext
13.70
6.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.00
BlocksContext
2.88
4.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
75%
Save rateContext
62%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
410
PassesContext
389
333
Accurate passesContext
314
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.78
11.40
FoulsContext
9.50
13.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Hamburger SV
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,224 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
1. FC Heidenheim
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel542 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Hamburger SV |
1. FC Heidenheim |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 13 Sep | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 542 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,224 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.2 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Hamburger SV
Confirmed XI
1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
8Daniel Elfadli
44L. Vušković
17W. Omari
28M. Muheim
21N. Remberg
20Fábio Vieira
16G. Gocholeishvili
7Jean-Luc Dompe
11R. Königsdörffer
14Rayan Philippe
1. FC Heidenheim
Confirmed XI
41D. Ramaj(G)
19J. Föhrenbach
5B. Gimber
6P. Mainka
23O. Traoré
3J. Schöppner
30N. Dorsch
20L. Kerber
22A. Ibrahimović
31S. Conteh
29M. Kaufmann
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Hamburger SV
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
1. FC Heidenheim
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Hamburger SV+0.3 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- 1. FC Heidenheim-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Hamburger SV · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
1. FC Heidenheim · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Hamburger SV | 1. FC Heidenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 0.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.33 | 2.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 2.67 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 33% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 67% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Hamburger SV | 1. FC Heidenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 0.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.33 | 2.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 2.67 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 33% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 67% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Hamburger SV | 1. FC Heidenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 3.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 7.66 | 9.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 3.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 4.33 | 6.00 | 4.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Hamburger SV | 1. FC Heidenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 3.78 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 7.67 | 9.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 1/5 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 1/5 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.60 | 4.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 1/5 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Florian Exner Germany · 15 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.80league 4.25
Red cards0.33league 0.36
Cards 5+47%league 50%
Fouls22.6league 23.0
Penalties0.27league 0.50
Home wins40%league 43%
Hamburger SVNo previous matches with this referee.
1. FC Heidenheim2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L1 Dec 24H · Eintracht Frankfurt0–40
- W28 Sep 24A · FSV Mainz 052–05
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Hamburger SV3 games · scored 0 · conceded 7
2
0-15
3
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim3 games · scored 1 · conceded 7
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Hamburger SV5 games · scored 1 · conceded 9
3
0-15
3
16-30
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
61-75
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim10 games · scored 6 · conceded 19
1
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
