Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar – 23 Nov 2025

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Nov 23 · 11:15 Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen

Heerenveen 12th · 14 pts · 12 played WWDDL

3–1Full time

AZ Alkmaar 3rd · 24 pts · 12 played WWWWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AZ Alkmaar were slight favourites.

AZ Alkmaar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 21). Absences weigh more on AZ Alkmaar. Heerenveen had 14.7 days of rest, AZ Alkmaar 13.8 and had to travel 87 km.

Away travel87 kmRest days14.7 · 13.8Matches / 14d0 · 1

Heerenveen28%

Draw26%

AZ Alkmaar46%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.64

Heerenveen26%

Draw26%

AZ Alkmaar48%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.60

Heerenveen26%

Draw25%

AZ Alkmaar49%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.69

Heerenveen22%

Draw24%

AZ Alkmaar54%

Expected goals 1.10 – 1.84

Heerenveen28%

Draw26%

AZ Alkmaar46%

Expected goals 1.17 – 1.55

Over 2.5 55% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Heerenveen)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsAllard Lindhout

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.20
Matches 64

Team strength

Heerenveen

AZ Alkmaar

21 L90 StrengthIn forecast 50

31 Current StrengthIn forecast 47

36 AttackIn forecast 52

40 DefenceIn forecast 49

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Heerenveen

Attack—

Defense risk—

AZ Alkmaar

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Heerenveen

AZ Alkmaar

1.58 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.08

1.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.90 xGVia Att/Def 1.87

1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.22

-0.32 Goals minus xGContext +0.21

83% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 25%

15.08 ShotsContext 17.17

5.17 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.25

34% On target shareContext 36%

9.82 Shots in the boxContext 10.92

63% Box shareContext 63%

11% ConversionContext 12%

2.13 OffsidesContext 1.33

10.25 Shots allowedContext 12.75

4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.75

3.00 BlocksContext 4.09

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.55

58% Save rateContext 72%

53% PossessionIn forecast 55%

425 PassesContext 457

340 Accurate passesContext 382

80% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.94

11.08 FoulsContext 10.83

12.25 Fouls sufferedContext 10.67

1.58 Yellow cardsContext 2.75

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 12 and 12 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.99 xGVia Att/Def 1.92

1.44 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.47

-0.29 Goals minus xGContext -0.42

80% Scored inContext 90%

0% Clean sheetsContext 30%

14.70 ShotsContext 16.30

5.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.40

35% On target shareContext 39%

9.33 Shots in the boxContext 11.00

62% Box shareContext 64%

12% ConversionContext 9%

2.17 OffsidesContext 1.63

11.00 Shots allowedContext 13.00

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.90

3.00 BlocksContext 3.67

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.20

57% Save rateContext 65%

53% PossessionIn forecast 53%

428 PassesContext 443

344 Accurate passesContext 367

80% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.88

11.00 FoulsContext 11.20

12.90 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Heerenveen

Rest14.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

AZ Alkmaar

Rest13.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel87 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Heerenveen	AZ Alkmaar
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	14.7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 8 Nov	13.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 9 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	87 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 2	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	5.3	7.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Heerenveen Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22B. Klaverboer(G)

19V. Zagaritis 3M. Willemsen 4S. Kersten 45O. Braude

6J. van Overeem 8L. Brouwers

7M. Rivera 10R. Meerveld 20J. Trenskow

9D. Vente

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

AZ Alkmaar Confirmed XI

4-3-3

41J. Zoet(G)

34M. de Wit 4M. Dekker 5Alexandre Penetra 22Elijah Dijkstra

10S. Mijnans 6P. Koopmeiners 26K. Smit

11I. Sadiq 9T. Parrott 7Weslley Patati

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Heerenveen Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

AZ Alkmaar Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Heerenveen+2.1 pp
Draw+0.3 pp
AZ Alkmaar-2.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Heerenveen · Home 1.50points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 2-3-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.83

AZ Alkmaar · Away 2.17points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 4-1-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 0.83

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 8 this season

Opponent	Heerenveen	AZ Alkmaar
Ajax	D 1–1 A	W 2–0 A
NAC Breda	D 3–3 H	W 1–0 A
Telstar	W 3–2 A	W 2–1 H
Utrecht	D 2–2 A	W 4–1 H
NEC Nijmegen	W 3–2 H	L 1–2 A
Feyenoord	L 0–1 A	D 3–3 H
Groningen	L 1–2 A	W 4–1 H
FC Volendam	D 1–1 H	D 2–2 A
Points	10 of 24 · 1.25 per game	17 of 24 · 2.13 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 Heerenveen wins1 draws2 AZ Alkmaar wins

Goals per game1.50 – 3.75 Over 2.5100% Both scored75% Clean sheets0% · 25%

2 Mar 2025Heerenveen3–1AZ Alkmaar
14 Sep 2024AZ Alkmaar9–1Heerenveen
28 Jan 2024Heerenveen2–2AZ Alkmaar
21 Oct 2023AZ Alkmaar3–0Heerenveen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Heerenveen	AZ Alkmaar	Forecast
Scored per game	1.58	2.08
Conceded per game	1.75	1.50
Match goals	3.33	3.58	2.87
Over 1.5	92%	83%
Over 2.5	67%	75%	55%
Over 3.5	42%	50%
Both teams scored	83%	75%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	25%
Failed to score	17%	0%
Games	12	12

	Heerenveen	AZ Alkmaar	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	1.90
Conceded per game	1.80	1.50
Match goals	3.50	3.40	2.87
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	70%	55%
Over 3.5	50%	40%
Both teams scored	80%	70%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	30%
Failed to score	20%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Heerenveen	AZ Alkmaar	League
Corners
Corners won	5.67	6.08
Corners conceded	4.67	4.17
Match total	10.34	10.25	9.94
Over 8.5	83% 10/12	75% 9/12
Over 9.5	50% 6/12	42% 5/12
Over 10.5	42% 5/12	25% 3/12
Cards
Cards	1.75	2.83
Opponent cards	1.92	1.67
Match total	3.67	4.50	3.55
Over 3.5	50% 6/12	67% 8/12
Over 4.5	25% 3/12	50% 6/12

	Heerenveen	AZ Alkmaar	League
Corners
Corners won	5.10	5.11
Corners conceded	5.10	3.89
Match total	10.20	9.00	9.94
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.20
Opponent cards	1.80	2.10
Match total	3.60	4.30	3.55
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Allard Lindhout Netherlands · 64 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.63league 3.31

Red cards0.17league 0.22

Cards 5+34%league 31%

Fouls20.1league 22.0

Penalties0.20league 0.28

Home wins36%league 49%

Heerenveen3 with this referee

Record0-1-2 Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

D30 Aug 25H · GO Ahead Eagles2–23
L16 Dec 23H · FC Volendam1–21
L27 Aug 23H · Sparta Rotterdam1–31

AZ Alkmaar4 with this referee

Record2-1-1 Cards · opp.1.5 · 0.8 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

W14 May 25A · Twente3–22
L19 Oct 24H · PSV Eindhoven1–21
D20 Jan 24H · PEC Zwolle2–22
W8 Oct 23A · Ajax2–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.