Heerenveen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Heerenveen were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Heerenveen had 6.3 days of rest, Excelsior 7 and had to travel 151 km.
Away travel151 kmRest days6.3 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Heerenveen49%
Draw26%
Excelsior25%
Heerenveen48%
Draw26%
Excelsior26%
Heerenveen49%
Draw26%
Excelsior26%
Heerenveen42%
Draw27%
Excelsior32%
Heerenveen48%
Draw26%
Excelsior26%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heerenveen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsRichard Martens
- Cards per match 2.7
- Penalties per match 0.10
- Matches 10
Team strength
Heerenveen
Excelsior
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
16
31
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
36
AttackIn forecast
21
40
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisExcelsior
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
HeerenveenExcelsior
1.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.86
1.71
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.14
1.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.13
-0.54
Goals minus xGContext
-0.39
86%
Scored inContext
71%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
15.14
ShotsContext
12.29
4.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.14
31%
On target shareContext
34%
10.29
Shots in the boxContext
7.57
68%
Box shareContext
62%
9%
ConversionContext
7%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.00
9.57
Shots allowedContext
18.00
4.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
8.14
2.33
BlocksContext
5.00
2.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.71
61%
Save rateContext
70%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
412
PassesContext
356
322
Accurate passesContext
273
78%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.70
10.57
FoulsContext
13.86
12.14
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
1.71
Yellow cardsContext
1.14
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
1.77
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.13
-0.47
Goals minus xGContext
-0.35
80%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.60
ShotsContext
12.10
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
32%
On target shareContext
36%
9.10
Shots in the boxContext
7.22
68%
Box shareContext
60%
10%
ConversionContext
7%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.29
10.10
Shots allowedContext
16.60
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.40
2.80
BlocksContext
4.60
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.22
64%
Save rateContext
66%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
400
PassesContext
374
316
Accurate passesContext
290
79%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.75
11.50
FoulsContext
11.80
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Heerenveen
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km221 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Excelsior
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel151 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Heerenveen |
Excelsior |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 28 Sep | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 27 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 151 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 221 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.6 | 14.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Heerenveen
Confirmed XI
22B. Klaverboer(G)
19V. Zagaritis
3M. Willemsen
6J. van Overeem
45O. Braude
8L. Brouwers
16M. Linday
7M. Rivera
10R. Meerveld
20J. Trenskow
9D. Vente
Excelsior
Confirmed XI
1S. van Gassel(G)
12A. Zagré
3R. Meissen
4C. Widell
2Ilias Bronkhorst
6A. Carlén
10N. Naujoks
11G. de Regt
23I. Yegoian
30D. Sanches Fernandes
9S. Włodarczyk
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Heerenveen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Excelsior
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Heerenveen+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Excelsior-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Heerenveen · Home
1.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.75
Excelsior · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 3.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Heerenveen | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| Utrecht | D 2–2 A | L 1–4 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | W 3–2 H | L 0–5 A |
| Feyenoord | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Twente | L 1–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| FC Volendam | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 5 of 15 · 1.00 per game | 6 of 15 · 1.20 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Heerenveen wins0 draws2 Excelsior wins
Goals per game0.00 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 19 Jan 2024Excelsior3–0Heerenveen
- 23 Sep 2023Heerenveen0–3Excelsior
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Heerenveen | Excelsior | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.71 | 2.14 | |
| Match goals | 3.14 | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 71% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 86% | 57% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Heerenveen | Excelsior | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.71 | 2.14 | |
| Match goals | 3.14 | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 71% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 86% | 57% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Heerenveen | Excelsior | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.57 | 3.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.71 | 4.71 | |
| Match total | 10.28 | 8.42 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 86% 6/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 5/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 4/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.43 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.43 | 1.29 | |
| Match total | 4.43 | 2.72 | 3.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Heerenveen | Excelsior | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 9.30 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 2.80 | 3.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Richard Martens Netherlands · 10 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.70league 3.52
Red cards0.00league 0.22
Cards 5+10%league 36%
Fouls20.0league 22.4
Penalties0.10league 0.19
Home wins30%league 48%
Heerenveen1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W1 Dec 23H · Almere City FC3–01
ExcelsiorNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Heerenveen7 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
Excelsior7 games · scored 6 · conceded 15
3
1
0-15
3
16-30
3
31-45
3
46-60
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
Heerenveen10 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
3
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
7
76-90
Excelsior10 games · scored 9 · conceded 24
4
4
0-15
1
4
16-30
4
31-45
1
4
46-60
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
