Heerenveen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
GO Ahead Eagles were the stronger side on L90 Strength (25 vs 19). Heerenveen had 6.3 days of rest, GO Ahead Eagles 7.1 and had to travel 80 km.
Away travel80 kmRest days6.3 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Heerenveen39%
Draw26%
GO Ahead Eagles35%
Heerenveen38%
Draw27%
GO Ahead Eagles34%
Heerenveen39%
Draw26%
GO Ahead Eagles35%
Heerenveen32%
Draw26%
GO Ahead Eagles42%
Heerenveen38%
Draw27%
GO Ahead Eagles34%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heerenveen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsAllard Lindhout
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 55
Team strength
Heerenveen
GO Ahead Eagles
19
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
31
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
36
AttackIn forecast
29
40
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGO Ahead Eagles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
HeerenveenGO Ahead Eagles
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.33
1.79
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.94
-0.79
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
100%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
17.33
ShotsContext
11.33
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
27%
On target shareContext
35%
11.67
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
68%
Box shareContext
62%
6%
ConversionContext
12%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.00
7.33
Shots allowedContext
24.00
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
8.00
—
BlocksContext
7.33
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.33
62%
Save rateContext
67%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
433
PassesContext
420
344
Accurate passesContext
353
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.81
11.00
FoulsContext
8.00
12.33
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.33
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.54
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.76
-0.24
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
90%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.40
ShotsContext
12.00
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
32%
On target shareContext
30%
9.10
Shots in the boxContext
7.78
65%
Box shareContext
60%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.11
OffsidesContext
1.57
10.30
Shots allowedContext
21.30
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.00
2.71
BlocksContext
6.20
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.00
66%
Save rateContext
71%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
417
PassesContext
470
337
Accurate passesContext
398
81%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.93
11.90
FoulsContext
7.70
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
0.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Heerenveen
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km104 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
GO Ahead Eagles
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel80 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Heerenveen |
GO Ahead Eagles |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 24 Aug | 7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 23 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 80 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 104 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.1 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Heerenveen
Confirmed XI
44A. Noppert(G)
19V. Zagaritis
17N. Hopland
4S. Kersten
45O. Braude
6J. van Overeem
16M. Linday
7M. Rivera
10R. Meerveld
20J. Trenskow
9D. Vente
GO Ahead Eagles
Confirmed XI
22J. De Busser(G)
5D. James
4J. Kramer
3G. Nauber
2M. Deijl
8H. Linthorst
7J. Breum
21M. Meulensteen
17M. Suray
16V. Edvardsen
18R. Margaret
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Heerenveen
Absences are shown before kick-off
GO Ahead Eagles
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Heerenveen+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- GO Ahead Eagles+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Heerenveen · Home
0.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
GO Ahead Eagles · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Heerenveen wins0 draws3 GO Ahead Eagles wins
Goals per game0.75 – 1.50
Over 2.525%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets25% · 50%
- 14 May 2025GO Ahead Eagles1–0Heerenveen
- 10 Nov 2024Heerenveen1–0GO Ahead Eagles
- 17 Feb 2024Heerenveen0–2GO Ahead Eagles
- 2 Sep 2023GO Ahead Eagles3–2Heerenveen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Heerenveen | GO Ahead Eagles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 2.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 3.67 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 100% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 67% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Heerenveen | GO Ahead Eagles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 2.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 3.67 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 100% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 67% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Heerenveen | GO Ahead Eagles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.00 | 7.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 13.67 | 10.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 3/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 3/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 3/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.33 | 3.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Heerenveen | GO Ahead Eagles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.30 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 6.40 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 11.40 | 10.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 3.50 | 3.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Allard Lindhout Netherlands · 55 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.64league 3.33
Red cards0.15league 0.11
Cards 5+35%league 33%
Fouls20.2league 22.7
Penalties0.22league 0.15
Home wins31%league 56%
Heerenveen2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L16 Dec 23H · FC Volendam1–21
- L27 Aug 23H · Sparta Rotterdam1–31
GO Ahead Eagles2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.0.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W14 Feb 25H · Sparta Rotterdam1–00
- L10 Dec 23H · Utrecht0–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Heerenveen3 games · scored 3 · conceded 5
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles3 games · scored 4 · conceded 7
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Heerenveen10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
5
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
31-45
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
5
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles10 games · scored 12 · conceded 19
3
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
6
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
