Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam – 28 Feb 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sat, Feb 28 · 15:30 Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen

Heerenveen 10th · 31 pts · 24 played DLWWL

First leg3–0 2–1Full time

Sparta Rotterdam 7th · 37 pts · 24 played WWDDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Sparta Rotterdam. Heerenveen had 6.9 days of rest, Sparta Rotterdam 6 and had to travel 151 km.

Away travel151 kmRest days6.9 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2

Heerenveen41%

Draw26%

Sparta Rotterdam33%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.36

Heerenveen44%

Draw27%

Sparta Rotterdam29%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.18

Heerenveen41%

Draw26%

Sparta Rotterdam33%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.36

Heerenveen33%

Draw26%

Sparta Rotterdam41%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.53

Heerenveen40%

Draw26%

Sparta Rotterdam33%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.32

Over 2.5 55% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Heerenveen)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsMartijn Vos

Cards per match 4.3
Penalties per match 0.31
Matches 13

Team strength

Heerenveen

Sparta Rotterdam

26 L90 StrengthIn forecast 26

31 Current StrengthIn forecast 18

36 AttackIn forecast 32

40 DefenceIn forecast 17

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Heerenveen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sparta Rotterdam

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Heerenveen

Sparta Rotterdam

1.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.29

1.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.67

1.58 xGVia Att/Def 1.37

1.29 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36

+0.09 Goals minus xGContext -0.08

79% Scored inContext 79%

8% Clean sheetsContext 38%

14.88 ShotsContext 12.54

5.43 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.54

35% On target shareContext 36%

9.52 Shots in the boxContext 8.46

63% Box shareContext 69%

11% ConversionContext 10%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.57

11.54 Shots allowedContext 15.71

4.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.13

2.74 BlocksContext 4.38

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.30

63% Save rateContext 70%

51% PossessionIn forecast 47%

432 PassesContext 388

348 Accurate passesContext 308

80% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.93

10.96 FoulsContext 9.08

10.33 Fouls sufferedContext 10.63

1.42 Yellow cardsContext 1.79

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 24 and 24 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.02 xGVia Att/Def 1.52

1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.01

+0.68 Goals minus xGContext -0.02

70% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 50%

13.80 ShotsContext 13.30

5.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.40

35% On target shareContext 41%

8.50 Shots in the boxContext 9.20

62% Box shareContext 71%

12% ConversionContext 11%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

13.50 Shots allowedContext 13.90

5.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10

2.60 BlocksContext 4.10

3.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

69% Save rateContext 78%

49% PossessionIn forecast 50%

439 PassesContext 405

355 Accurate passesContext 325

81% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.75 Team ratingContext 7.03

10.30 FoulsContext 10.30

8.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60

1.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Heerenveen

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km343 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Sparta Rotterdam

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel151 km162 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Heerenveen	Sparta Rotterdam
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 21 Feb	6Eredivisie 2025-2026, 22 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	151 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	343 km	162 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 5	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7.2	7.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Heerenveen Confirmed XI

4-3-3

22B. Klaverboer(G)

19V. Zagaritis 28H. Petrov 3M. Willemsen 45O. Braude

6J. van Overeem 10R. Meerveld 16M. Linday

7M. Rivera 18L. Nordås 20J. Trenskow

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Sparta Rotterdam Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Drommel(G)

5T. Quintero 4R. Martins Indi 3M. Young 2S. Sambo

8J. Kitolano 6P. Clement

11S. Mito 10A. Santos 7M. van Bergen

9T. Lauritsen

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Heerenveen Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Sparta Rotterdam Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Heerenveen-0.1 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Sparta Rotterdam+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Heerenveen · Home 1.42points per game · 12 home games

W-D-L: 4-5-3
Scored: 1.83
Conceded: 1.75

Sparta Rotterdam · Away 1.58points per game · 12 away games

W-D-L: 6-1-5
Scored: 1.42
Conceded: 1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Heerenveen	Sparta Rotterdam
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–3 AL 0–2 H	L 1–6 A
PEC Zwolle	W 4–2 HL 1–2 A	L 0–1 A
GO Ahead Eagles	W 3–1 AD 2–2 H	W 3–0 A
Twente	L 0–5 AL 1–2 H	L 1–5 H
Utrecht	D 1–1 HD 2–2 A	W 1–0 AW 2–1 H
Groningen	L 0–2 HL 1–2 A	W 2–0 HW 2–0 A
Feyenoord	D 2–2 HL 0–1 A	W 4–3 AL 0–4 H
Heracles	W 3–0 A	W 2–0 HL 0–3 A
AZ Alkmaar	W 3–1 H	L 1–3 AL 0–1 H
Fortuna Sittard	L 0–2 A	D 2–2 AD 1–1 H
Ajax	D 1–1 A	D 3–3 H
NAC Breda	D 3–3 H	W 1–0 H
Telstar	W 3–2 A	W 1–0 H
Excelsior	W 2–1 H	W 1–0 A
NEC Nijmegen	W 3–2 H	D 1–1 HL 1–3 A
FC Volendam	D 1–1 H	W 1–0 A
Points	28 of 69 · 1.22 per game	37 of 69 · 1.61 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

2 Heerenveen wins0 draws2 Sparta Rotterdam wins

Goals per game1.75 – 1.50 Over 2.575% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

14 Dec 2025Sparta Rotterdam0–3Heerenveen
12 Apr 2025Sparta Rotterdam3–1Heerenveen
26 Oct 2024Heerenveen2–0Sparta Rotterdam
27 Aug 2023Heerenveen1–3Sparta Rotterdam

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Heerenveen	Sparta Rotterdam	Forecast
Scored per game	1.67	1.29
Conceded per game	1.75	1.67
Match goals	3.42	2.96	2.89
Over 1.5	96%	71%
Over 2.5	71%	50%	55%
Over 3.5	46%	33%
Both teams scored	71%	42%	59%
Clean sheets	8%	38%
Failed to score	21%	21%
Games	24	24

	Heerenveen	Sparta Rotterdam	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	1.50
Conceded per game	1.80	1.20
Match goals	3.50	2.70	2.89
Over 1.5	100%	70%
Over 2.5	70%	40%	55%
Over 3.5	50%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	59%
Clean sheets	20%	50%
Failed to score	30%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Heerenveen	Sparta Rotterdam	League
Corners
Corners won	5.52	5.09
Corners conceded	4.83	6.50
Match total	10.35	11.59	10.27
Over 8.5	78% 18/23	95% 21/22
Over 9.5	57% 13/23	73% 16/22
Over 10.5	48% 11/23	64% 14/22
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.88
Opponent cards	1.50	2.08
Match total	3.00	3.96	3.50
Over 3.5	33% 8/24	67% 16/24
Over 4.5	17% 4/24	38% 9/24

	Heerenveen	Sparta Rotterdam	League
Corners
Corners won	4.67	6.50
Corners conceded	5.22	6.13
Match total	9.89	12.63	10.27
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	100% 8/8
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	75% 6/8
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	75% 6/8
Cards
Cards	1.20	1.80
Opponent cards	1.00	2.30
Match total	2.20	4.10	3.50
Over 3.5	10% 1/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	0% 0/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Martijn Vos Netherlands · 13 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.85league 3.29

Red cards0.46league 0.19

Cards 5+31%league 30%

Fouls26.1league 21.6

Penalties0.31league 0.24

Home wins23%league 45%

Heerenveen1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L21 Dec 24A · Almere City FC0–32

Sparta Rotterdam

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.