Heracles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AZ Alkmaar were slight favourites.
AZ Alkmaar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 14). Absences weigh more on AZ Alkmaar. Heracles had 15.8 days of rest, AZ Alkmaar 13.9 and had to travel 133 km.
Away travel133 kmRest days15.8 · 13.9Matches / 14d0 · 1
Heracles19%
Draw24%
AZ Alkmaar57%
Heracles19%
Draw24%
AZ Alkmaar57%
Heracles19%
Draw23%
AZ Alkmaar58%
Heracles15%
Draw21%
AZ Alkmaar64%
Heracles20%
Draw24%
AZ Alkmaar56%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Almelo)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsBas Nijhuis
- Cards per match 2.1
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 37
Team strength
Heracles
AZ Alkmaar
14
L90 StrengthIn forecast
53
9
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
7
AttackIn forecast
52
10
DefenceIn forecast
49
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAZ Alkmaar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
HeraclesAZ Alkmaar
0.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.33
3.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.64
xGVia Att/Def
1.80
2.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
-0.39
Goals minus xGContext
+0.53
25%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
8.50
ShotsContext
18.00
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.33
27%
On target shareContext
30%
4.75
Shots in the boxContext
11.33
58%
Box shareContext
66%
3%
ConversionContext
13%
1.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
21.75
Shots allowedContext
9.67
8.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.67
8.50
BlocksContext
2.50
4.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.33
52%
Save rateContext
77%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
300
PassesContext
490
222
Accurate passesContext
417
74%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.59
Team ratingContext
7.07
13.00
FoulsContext
11.33
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
3.33
0.25
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.40
2.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
1.95
1.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.98
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.45
70%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
9.70
ShotsContext
14.60
4.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
34%
On target shareContext
41%
5.63
Shots in the boxContext
9.80
59%
Box shareContext
67%
8%
ConversionContext
16%
1.40
OffsidesContext
2.29
17.50
Shots allowedContext
11.30
7.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
5.50
BlocksContext
4.11
4.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
58%
Save rateContext
80%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
336
PassesContext
427
264
Accurate passesContext
357
79%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.76
Team ratingContext
7.17
12.10
FoulsContext
10.70
9.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Heracles
Rest15.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AZ Alkmaar
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel133 km232 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Heracles |
AZ Alkmaar |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 29 Aug | 13.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 31 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 133 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 232 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.3 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Heracles
Confirmed XI
1F. de Keijzer(G)
2M. Benita
4D. Mirani
24I. Mesík
5D. van der Kust
32S. Scheperman
10T. Bruns
70A. Hrustić
7B. Limbombe
9J. Hornkamp
21Y. Borges Sanches
AZ Alkmaar
Confirmed XI
1R. Owusu-Oduro(G)
30D. Kasius
3W. Goes
5Alexandre Penetra
34M. de Wit
8J. Clasie
10S. Mijnans
26K. Smit
7Weslley Patati
35M. Meerdink
27Ro-Zangelo Daal
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Heracles
Absences are shown before kick-off
AZ Alkmaar
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Heracles+0.7 pp
- Draw+0.5 pp
- AZ Alkmaar-1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Heracles · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 4.00
AZ Alkmaar · Away
2.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Heracles | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| Groningen | L 0–4 A | W 4–1 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Heracles wins1 draws1 AZ Alkmaar wins
Goals per game0.67 – 0.67
Over 2.50%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 13 Apr 2025Heracles1–0AZ Alkmaar
- 1 Dec 2024AZ Alkmaar1–0Heracles
- 28 Sep 2023AZ Alkmaar1–1Heracles
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Heracles | AZ Alkmaar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.25 | 2.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.75 | 3.33 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 67% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 75% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 67% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 75% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 3 |
| Heracles | AZ Alkmaar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.25 | 2.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.75 | 3.33 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 67% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 75% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 67% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 75% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Heracles | AZ Alkmaar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.75 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.75 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 7.34 | 9.90 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 3.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.25 | 1.33 | |
| Match total | 3.25 | 4.66 | 3.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 1/4 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Heracles | AZ Alkmaar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 8.80 | 9.90 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.90 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 2.80 | 4.30 | 3.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bas Nijhuis Netherlands · 37 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.03league 3.45
Red cards0.05league 0.23
Cards 5+8%league 38%
Fouls16.5league 22.7
Penalties0.27league 0.18
Home wins57%league 50%
Heracles3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.0.7 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L14 May 25A · PSV Eindhoven1–40
- W10 Feb 24H · Vitesse3–21
- W1 Oct 23H · PEC Zwolle2–11
AZ Alkmaar2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W4 May 25A · GO Ahead Eagles3–04
- W26 Nov 23H · FC Volendam3–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Heracles4 games · scored 1 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
4
31-45
46-60
3
61-75
5
76-90
AZ Alkmaar3 games · scored 7 · conceded 3
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Heracles10 games · scored 8 · conceded 29
1
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
8
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
4
61-75
6
76-90
AZ Alkmaar10 games · scored 24 · conceded 7
5
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
