Heracles
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Heracles19.4%fair odds 5.16
Draw23.7%fair odds 4.21
AZ Alkmaar56.9%fair odds 1.76
Expected goals0.99 – 1.85total 2.83
Likeliest score1–111.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
AZ Alkmaar
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Heracles ↓ · AZ Alkmaar → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 10.3 | 10.0 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 11.3 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Heracles goals, columns AZ Alkmaar goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.3%8.86
- 0–110.3%9.74
- 0–210.0%10.00
- 1–29.9%10.11
- 0–06.4%15.53
- 0–36.2%16.25
- 1–36.1%16.43
- 2–15.3%18.86
- 1–05.2%19.08
- 2–24.9%20.43
Winning margin
1.9%
Heracles by 3+
fair 53.33
5.1%
Heracles by 2
fair 19.71
12.4%
Heracles by 1
fair 8.05
23.7%
Draw
fair 4.21
23.7%
AZ Alkmaar by 1
fair 4.22
17.7%
AZ Alkmaar by 2
fair 5.66
15.5%
AZ Alkmaar by 3+
fair 6.43
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Heracles goals
37%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
AZ Alkmaar goals
16%0
29%1
27%2
17%3
12%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 19.4% | 19.8% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 23.7% | 24.2% | -0.5 pp |
| AZ Alkmaar win | 56.9% | 56.0% | +0.9 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.9% | 52.5% | +1.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.5% | 52.7% | +0.8 pp |
| Expected goals Heracles | 0.99 | 0.98 | +0.01 |
| Expected goals AZ Alkmaar | 1.85 | 1.80 | +0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Heracles win19.4%5.16
- Draw23.7%4.21
- AZ Alkmaar win56.9%1.76
- Double chance Heracles or draw43.1%2.32
- Double chance Heracles or AZ Alkmaar76.3%1.31
- Double chance AZ Alkmaar or draw80.6%1.24
- Draw no bet Heracles25.4%3.94
- Draw no bet AZ Alkmaar74.6%1.34
Goals
- Over 0.593.6%1.07
- Over 1.578.0%1.28
- Over 2.553.9%1.86
- Over 3.531.6%3.17
- Over 4.515.8%6.34
- Under 1.522.0%4.56
- Under 2.546.1%2.17
- Under 3.568.4%1.46
Both teams to score
- Yes53.5%1.87
- No46.5%2.15
- Yes and over 2.542.2%2.37
- Heracles win and yes10.0%9.98
- Draw and yes17.3%5.78
- AZ Alkmaar win and yes26.1%3.83
Team goals
- Heracles over 0.562.8%1.59
- Heracles over 1.526.0%3.84
- Heracles over 2.57.8%12.77
- AZ Alkmaar over 0.584.2%1.19
- AZ Alkmaar over 1.555.1%1.82
- AZ Alkmaar over 2.528.2%3.55
- Heracles clean sheet15.8%6.33
- AZ Alkmaar clean sheet37.2%2.69
- Heracles win to nil9.4%10.69
- AZ Alkmaar win to nil30.7%3.25
Handicap
- Heracles −1.56.9%14.39
- Heracles −2.51.9%53.33
- AZ Alkmaar +1.593.1%1.07
- AZ Alkmaar +2.598.1%1.02
- AZ Alkmaar −1.533.2%3.01
- Heracles +1.566.8%1.50
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored40
Favourite won60.0%
Avg chance given to result45.7%
1X2 Brier0.517
Over 2.5 called right67.5%
BTTS called right55.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 4 | 38.0% | 25.0% |
| 40–50% | 11 | 44.3% | 36.4% |
| 50–60% | 12 | 55.8% | 66.7% |
| 60–70% | 7 | 63.2% | 85.7% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 75.8% | 75.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 80.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 18 of 40 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4693 | 0.4583 |
| Avg chance given to result | 48.0% | 50.1% |
| Favourite won | 61.1% | 72.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 18 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 40 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.