Heracles vs Excelsior – 20 Mar 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Fri, Mar 20 · 19:00 Erve Asito, Almelo

Heracles 18th · 18 pts · 27 played LLLDL

First leg2–1 1–1Full time

Excelsior 15th · 26 pts · 27 played LLLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Excelsior. Heracles had 5.2 days of rest, Excelsior 5.2 and had to travel 157 km.

Away travel157 kmRest days5.2 · 5.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

Heracles34%

Draw26%

Excelsior40%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.53

Heracles39%

Draw27%

Excelsior34%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.29

Heracles35%

Draw26%

Excelsior39%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.51

Heracles27%

Draw25%

Excelsior48%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.71

Heracles34%

Draw26%

Excelsior40%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.49

Over 2.5 56% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Almelo)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsJoey Kooij

Cards per match 3.4
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 56

Team strength

Heracles

Excelsior

12 L90 StrengthIn forecast 16

9 Current StrengthIn forecast 21

7 AttackIn forecast 21

10 DefenceIn forecast 18

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Heracles

Attack—

Defense risk—

Excelsior

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Heracles

Excelsior

1.19 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.04

2.56 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.10 xGVia Att/Def 1.24

1.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.82

+0.09 Goals minus xGContext -0.20

56% Scored inContext 78%

7% Clean sheetsContext 19%

10.37 ShotsContext 11.67

4.13 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.89

35% On target shareContext 33%

6.92 Shots in the boxContext 7.93

63% Box shareContext 67%

11% ConversionContext 9%

1.88 OffsidesContext 1.39

16.59 Shots allowedContext 14.96

6.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.81

4.92 BlocksContext 4.19

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.19

60% Save rateContext 70%

44% PossessionIn forecast 46%

338 PassesContext 392

260 Accurate passesContext 307

77% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.79

12.78 FoulsContext 11.93

11.22 Fouls sufferedContext 8.19

1.96 Yellow cardsContext 1.41

0.04 Red cardsContext 0.07

This league season, per match · 27 and 27 games

0.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

2.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

0.96 xGVia Att/Def 1.23

2.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.52

-0.36 Goals minus xGContext -0.13

40% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

9.30 ShotsContext 11.80

2.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60

30% On target shareContext 31%

6.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.60

63% Box shareContext 72%

7% ConversionContext 9%

2.33 OffsidesContext 1.57

15.80 Shots allowedContext 12.70

6.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70

4.00 BlocksContext 3.60

4.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.78

63% Save rateContext 74%

44% PossessionIn forecast 50%

344 PassesContext 425

264 Accurate passesContext 335

77% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.65 Team ratingContext 6.86

14.00 FoulsContext 9.80

10.90 Fouls sufferedContext 6.90

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Heracles

Rest5.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km266 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Excelsior

Rest5.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel157 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Heracles	Excelsior
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 15 Mar	5.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 15 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	157 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	266 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	15.7	15

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Heracles Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22R. Pasveer(G)

24I. Mesík 18A. Van Hoorenbeeck 4D. Mirani 3J. Wieckhoff

20Rhys Bozinovski 32S. Scheperman

9N. Ünüvar 25L. Zeefuik 14E. Ahlstrand

70A. Hrustić

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Excelsior Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

1S. van Gassel(G)

12A. Zagré 14L. Schouten 4C. Widell 2Ilias Bronkhorst

20L. Hartjes

11G. de Regt 23I. Yegoian 10N. Naujoks 30D. Sanches Fernandes

33Jerolldino Bergraaf

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Heracles Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Excelsior Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Heracles-1.1 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Excelsior+1.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Heracles · Home 1.08points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 4-2-7
Scored: 1.62
Conceded: 2.15

Excelsior · Away 0.92points per game · 13 away games

W-D-L: 3-3-7
Scored: 1.08
Conceded: 2.08

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Heracles	Excelsior
AZ Alkmaar	L 0–4 AL 1–2 H	L 1–2 HD 1–1 A
Utrecht	D 0–0 HL 0–4 A	L 1–4 A
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–3 HL 3–4 A	L 1–5 AL 1–2 H
GO Ahead Eagles	L 0–4 AW 4–2 H	L 0–1 HL 0–2 A
NAC Breda	L 0–1 HL 1–2 A	W 2–0 AW 1–0 H
NEC Nijmegen	L 1–4 AL 1–4 H	L 0–5 A
Fortuna Sittard	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A	L 1–2 AW 1–0 H
Feyenoord	L 2–4 AL 0–7 H	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H
Twente	L 0–2 HL 1–2 A	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H
Sparta Rotterdam	L 0–2 AW 3–0 H	L 0–1 H
Heerenveen	L 0–3 H	L 1–2 HL 1–2 A
Telstar	D 1–1 H	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A
PEC Zwolle	W 8–2 H	W 2–1 H
FC Volendam	L 0–3 A	W 2–1 A
Groningen	L 0–4 A	L 0–2 H
Ajax	L 0–2 A	D 2–2 HW 2–1 A
Points	15 of 78 · 0.58 per game	26 of 78 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

2 Heracles wins0 draws0 Excelsior wins

Goals per game2.50 – 1.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

8 Nov 2025Excelsior1–2Heracles
2 Sep 2023Heracles3–1Excelsior

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Heracles	Excelsior	Forecast
Scored per game	1.19	1.04
Conceded per game	2.56	1.70
Match goals	3.74	2.74	2.91
Over 1.5	93%	78%
Over 2.5	74%	63%	56%
Over 3.5	44%	22%
Both teams scored	52%	63%	59%
Clean sheets	7%	19%
Failed to score	44%	22%
Games	27	27

	Heracles	Excelsior	Forecast
Scored per game	0.60	1.10
Conceded per game	2.50	1.40
Match goals	3.10	2.50	2.91
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	56%
Over 3.5	50%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	70%	59%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	60%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Heracles	Excelsior	League
Corners
Corners won	4.15	4.30
Corners conceded	6.19	5.48
Match total	10.34	9.78	10.33
Over 8.5	70% 19/27	67% 18/27
Over 9.5	44% 12/27	44% 12/27
Over 10.5	33% 9/27	33% 9/27
Cards
Cards	2.04	1.52
Opponent cards	1.78	1.44
Match total	3.82	2.96	3.43
Over 3.5	48% 13/27	33% 9/27
Over 4.5	30% 8/27	22% 6/27

	Heracles	Excelsior	League
Corners
Corners won	3.70	4.70
Corners conceded	5.70	6.00
Match total	9.40	10.70	10.33
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.30
Opponent cards	1.50	1.50
Match total	3.50	2.80	3.43
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Joey Kooij Netherlands · 56 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.21league 3.25

Red cards0.14league 0.18

Cards 5+27%league 28%

Fouls22.1league 21.3

Penalties0.25league 0.24

Home wins50%league 45%

Heracles4 with this referee

Record1-0-3 Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 3 Reds1

L7 Feb 26A · NEC Nijmegen1–41
L8 Mar 25A · Fortuna Sittard0–12
L4 Nov 23H · PSV Eindhoven0–62
W2 Sep 23H · Excelsior3–11

Excelsior5 with this referee

Record1-1-3 Cards · opp.1.2 · 1.2 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L10 Jan 26A · PSV Eindhoven1–51
W22 Nov 25A · Ajax2–11
L24 Aug 25A · Utrecht1–40
D7 Oct 23A · Vitesse0–00
L2 Sep 23A · Heracles1–34

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.