Heracles vs FC Volendam – 26 Apr 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Apr 26 · 13:30 Erve Asito, Almelo

Heracles 18th · 19 pts · 30 played DLDLL

First leg0–3 0–2Full time

FC Volendam 16th · 28 pts · 30 played LLLDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards FC Volendam. Heracles had 14.7 days of rest, FC Volendam 15.8 and had to travel 109 km.

Away travel109 kmRest days14.7 · 15.8Matches / 14d0 · 0

Heracles34%

Draw25%

FC Volendam41%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.60

Heracles39%

Draw27%

FC Volendam33%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.28

Heracles35%

Draw25%

FC Volendam39%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.56

Heracles27%

Draw24%

FC Volendam49%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.80

Heracles34%

Draw25%

FC Volendam40%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.59

Over 2.5 59% Both score 62% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Almelo)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsJannick van der Laan

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.14
Matches 35

Team strength

Heracles

FC Volendam

11 L90 StrengthIn forecast 14

9 Current StrengthIn forecast 14

7 AttackIn forecast 14

10 DefenceIn forecast 19

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Heracles

Attack—

Defense risk—

FC Volendam

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Heracles

FC Volendam

1.13 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.03

2.57 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.67

1.12 xGVia Att/Def 1.00

1.97 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.70

+0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.03

57% Scored inContext 63%

7% Clean sheetsContext 7%

10.43 ShotsContext 10.27

4.04 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

35% On target shareContext 34%

6.97 Shots in the boxContext 6.47

64% Box shareContext 62%

11% ConversionContext 10%

1.85 OffsidesContext 1.71

16.70 Shots allowedContext 18.53

6.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.33

4.93 BlocksContext 5.60

4.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.77

61% Save rateContext 75%

43% PossessionIn forecast 45%

336 PassesContext 361

259 Accurate passesContext 287

77% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.82

12.73 FoulsContext 9.17

11.13 Fouls sufferedContext 11.63

1.93 Yellow cardsContext 1.47

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 30 and 30 games

0.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

2.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.09 xGVia Att/Def 1.16

2.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.64

-0.49 Goals minus xGContext -0.16

50% Scored inContext 60%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

10.50 ShotsContext 11.60

3.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

31% On target shareContext 33%

6.80 Shots in the boxContext 7.70

64% Box shareContext 66%

6% ConversionContext 9%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.71

15.50 Shots allowedContext 18.70

6.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.20

3.50 BlocksContext 5.50

4.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.80

64% Save rateContext 77%

43% PossessionIn forecast 48%

336 PassesContext 368

258 Accurate passesContext 286

77% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.63 Team ratingContext 6.81

13.40 FoulsContext 8.60

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Heracles

Rest14.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

FC Volendam

Rest15.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel109 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Heracles	FC Volendam
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	14.7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 11 Apr	15.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 10 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	109 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 2	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Heracles Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22R. Pasveer(G)

24I. Mesík 18A. Van Hoorenbeeck 4D. Mirani 6S. Čestić

32S. Scheperman 10T. Bruns

8M. Engels 70A. Hrustić 17T. van Gilst

19L. Kulenović

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

FC Volendam Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1K. van Oevelen(G)

14A. Meijers 20N. Verschuren 3M. Amevor 5P. Ugwu

8G. Yah 40R. van Cruijsen

99A. Descotte 4J. Bacuna 77B. Ould-Chikh

9H. Veerman

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Heracles Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

FC Volendam Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Heracles-1.2 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
FC Volendam+1.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Heracles · Home 1.00points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 4-3-8
Scored: 1.47
Conceded: 2.13

FC Volendam · Away 0.33points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-12
Scored: 0.53
Conceded: 2.07

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Heracles	FC Volendam
Ajax	L 0–3 HL 0–2 A	L 0–2 AD 1–1 H
Heerenveen	L 1–4 AL 0–3 H	D 1–1 A
Excelsior	D 1–1 HW 2–1 A	L 1–2 H
AZ Alkmaar	L 0–4 AL 1–2 H	L 0–1 AD 2–2 H
Utrecht	D 0–0 HL 0–4 A	W 2–1 HL 1–3 A
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–3 HL 3–4 A	W 2–1 HL 0–3 A
GO Ahead Eagles	L 0–4 AW 4–2 H	D 1–1 HL 0–3 A
NAC Breda	L 0–1 HL 1–2 A	L 0–1 AW 2–1 H
NEC Nijmegen	L 1–4 AL 1–4 H	L 0–3 AL 2–3 H
Fortuna Sittard	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A	L 1–2 HL 0–1 A
Feyenoord	L 2–4 AL 0–7 H	D 0–0 HL 1–3 A
Twente	L 0–2 HL 1–2 A	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H
Sparta Rotterdam	L 0–2 AW 3–0 H	L 0–2 AL 0–1 H
Telstar	D 1–1 H	D 2–2 A
PEC Zwolle	W 8–2 H	W 2–1 AW 2–1 H
Groningen	L 0–4 A	W 3–2 HL 0–3 A
Points	19 of 87 · 0.66 per game	25 of 87 · 0.86 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

0 Heracles wins2 draws1 FC Volendam wins

Goals per game1.00 – 2.00 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets0% · 33%

25 Oct 2025FC Volendam3–0Heracles
20 Jan 2024Heracles1–1FC Volendam
23 Sep 2023FC Volendam2–2Heracles

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Heracles	FC Volendam	Forecast
Scored per game	1.13	1.03
Conceded per game	2.57	1.67
Match goals	3.70	2.70	3.06
Over 1.5	93%	83%
Over 2.5	73%	63%	59%
Over 3.5	43%	20%
Both teams scored	53%	60%	62%
Clean sheets	7%	7%
Failed to score	43%	37%
Games	30	30

	Heracles	FC Volendam	Forecast
Scored per game	0.60	1.00
Conceded per game	2.50	1.50
Match goals	3.10	2.50	3.06
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	60%	59%
Over 3.5	50%	10%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	62%
Clean sheets	10%	10%
Failed to score	50%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Heracles	FC Volendam	League
Corners
Corners won	4.17	3.68
Corners conceded	6.00	6.64
Match total	10.17	10.32	10.24
Over 8.5	67% 20/30	71% 20/28
Over 9.5	43% 13/30	61% 17/28
Over 10.5	33% 10/30	46% 13/28
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.50
Opponent cards	1.67	1.90
Match total	3.67	3.40	3.32
Over 3.5	43% 13/30	40% 12/30
Over 4.5	27% 8/30	27% 8/30

	Heracles	FC Volendam	League
Corners
Corners won	4.10	3.70
Corners conceded	5.10	6.40
Match total	9.20	10.10	10.24
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.60
Opponent cards	0.90	1.80
Match total	2.70	3.40	3.32
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jannick van der Laan Netherlands · 35 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.63league 3.15

Red cards0.06league 0.17

Cards 5+29%league 26%

Fouls23.2league 21.2

Penalties0.14league 0.22

Home wins46%league 45%

Heracles4 with this referee

Record1-2-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

D6 Mar 26H · Utrecht0–01
L11 Jan 26A · Sparta Rotterdam0–23
D20 Jan 24H · FC Volendam1–11
W26 Nov 23A · Almere City FC5–03

FC Volendam2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L24 Jan 26A · Ajax0–23
D20 Jan 24A · Heracles1–10

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.