Heracles
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Heracles
18th · 19 pts · 30 played
DLDLL
First leg0–3
0–2Full time
FC Volendam
16th · 28 pts · 30 played
LLLDL
Heracles34.2%fair odds 2.92
Draw25.1%fair odds 3.98
FC Volendam40.6%fair odds 2.46
Expected goals1.45 – 1.60total 3.06
Likeliest score1–111.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
FC Volendam
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Heracles ↓ · FC Volendam → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Heracles goals, columns FC Volendam goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.6%8.66
- 1–28.8%11.39
- 2–18.0%12.54
- 0–17.0%14.36
- 2–26.4%15.67
- 1–06.3%15.95
- 0–26.0%16.55
- 0–05.3%18.89
- 2–05.0%20.08
- 1–34.7%21.33
Winning margin
6.0%
Heracles by 3+
fair 16.55
10.2%
Heracles by 2
fair 9.84
18.0%
Heracles by 1
fair 5.55
25.1%
Draw
fair 3.98
19.9%
FC Volendam by 1
fair 5.03
12.3%
FC Volendam by 2
fair 8.11
8.4%
FC Volendam by 3+
fair 11.88
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
Heracles goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
FC Volendam goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 34.2% | 34.3% | -0.1 pp |
| Draw | 25.1% | 25.3% | -0.1 pp |
| FC Volendam win | 40.6% | 40.4% | +0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.9% | 58.4% | +0.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 61.8% | 61.4% | +0.4 pp |
| Expected goals Heracles | 1.45 | 1.45 | +0.01 |
| Expected goals FC Volendam | 1.60 | 1.59 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Heracles win34.2%2.92
- Draw25.1%3.98
- FC Volendam win40.6%2.46
- Double chance Heracles or draw59.4%1.68
- Double chance Heracles or FC Volendam74.9%1.34
- Double chance FC Volendam or draw65.8%1.52
- Draw no bet Heracles45.7%2.19
- Draw no bet FC Volendam54.3%1.84
Goals
- Over 0.594.7%1.06
- Over 1.581.5%1.23
- Over 2.558.9%1.70
- Over 3.536.5%2.74
- Over 4.519.4%5.15
- Under 1.518.5%5.40
- Under 2.541.1%2.43
- Under 3.563.5%1.58
Both teams to score
- Yes61.8%1.62
- No38.2%2.62
- Yes and over 2.550.2%1.99
- Heracles win and yes19.3%5.17
- Draw and yes19.8%5.04
- FC Volendam win and yes22.6%4.43
Team goals
- Heracles over 0.576.6%1.30
- Heracles over 1.542.7%2.34
- Heracles over 2.518.0%5.57
- FC Volendam over 0.579.8%1.25
- FC Volendam over 1.547.5%2.10
- FC Volendam over 2.521.7%4.61
- Heracles clean sheet20.2%4.96
- FC Volendam clean sheet23.4%4.28
- Heracles win to nil14.9%6.73
- FC Volendam win to nil18.1%5.53
Handicap
- Heracles −1.516.2%6.17
- Heracles −2.56.0%16.55
- FC Volendam +1.583.8%1.19
- FC Volendam +2.594.0%1.06
- FC Volendam −1.520.7%4.82
- Heracles +1.579.3%1.26
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored278
Favourite won51.8%
Avg chance given to result41.2%
1X2 Brier0.586
Over 2.5 called right61.9%
BTTS called right61.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 41 | 38.0% | 34.1% |
| 40–50% | 103 | 45.0% | 45.6% |
| 50–60% | 70 | 55.1% | 48.6% |
| 60–70% | 35 | 64.5% | 68.6% |
| 70–80% | 21 | 74.3% | 85.7% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 84.1% | 87.5% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 229 of 278 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5868 | 0.5792 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.1% | 42.4% |
| Favourite won | 51.1% | 53.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 229 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 278 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.