Heracles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Heerenveen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (25 vs 17). Absences weigh more on Heracles. Heracles had 6.9 days of rest, Heerenveen 6.2 and had to travel 84 km.
Away travel84 kmRest days6.9 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Heracles36%
Draw27%
Heerenveen38%
Heracles37%
Draw27%
Heerenveen36%
Heracles37%
Draw27%
Heerenveen36%
Heracles29%
Draw26%
Heerenveen45%
Heracles36%
Draw27%
Heerenveen37%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Almelo)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMartin Van den Kerkhof
- Cards per match 2.6
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 30
Team strength
Heracles
Heerenveen
17
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
9
Current StrengthIn forecast
31
7
AttackIn forecast
36
10
DefenceIn forecast
40
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHeerenveen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
HeraclesHeerenveen
1.63
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.63
2.56
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.63
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.84
1.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
+0.40
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
69%
Scored inContext
81%
6%
Clean sheetsContext
6%
11.19
ShotsContext
15.50
5.31
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.31
39%
On target shareContext
34%
7.73
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
64%
Box shareContext
63%
15%
ConversionContext
11%
1.40
OffsidesContext
1.90
17.19
Shots allowedContext
10.19
6.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.38
5.50
BlocksContext
2.64
3.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.69
58%
Save rateContext
61%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
333
PassesContext
421
257
Accurate passesContext
335
77%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.83
12.06
FoulsContext
11.63
11.56
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.56
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
2.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.50
xGVia Att/Def
1.67
1.60
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
+0.80
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
80%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.50
ShotsContext
15.10
5.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
44%
On target shareContext
37%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.22
69%
Box shareContext
58%
20%
ConversionContext
12%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.80
14.60
Shots allowedContext
11.00
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.90
BlocksContext
2.75
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
60%
Save rateContext
60%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
342
PassesContext
426
265
Accurate passesContext
343
77%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.81
11.40
FoulsContext
12.40
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Heracles
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km261 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Heerenveen
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel84 km302 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Heracles |
Heerenveen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 13 Dec | 6.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 14 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 84 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 261 km | 302 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 22 | 21.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Heracles
Confirmed XI
16T. Jansink(G)
5D. van der Kust
18A. Van Hoorenbeeck
4D. Mirani
23M. te Wierik
8M. Engels
10T. Bruns
70A. Hrustić
7B. Limbombe
73W. Ould-Chikh
19L. Kulenović
Heerenveen
Confirmed XI
22B. Klaverboer(G)
19V. Zagaritis
3M. Willemsen
4S. Kersten
45O. Braude
6J. van Overeem
16M. Linday
10R. Meerveld
8L. Brouwers
20J. Trenskow
9D. Vente
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Heracles
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Heerenveen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Heracles-1.1 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Heerenveen+1.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Heracles · Home
1.43points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-3
- Scored
- 2.57
- Conceded
- 2.57
Heerenveen · Away
1.00points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-4
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Heracles | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | L 3–4 A | L 0–2 H |
| Telstar | D 1–1 H | W 3–2 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | W 4–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Excelsior | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| PEC Zwolle | W 8–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| FC Volendam | L 0–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Feyenoord | L 0–7 H | L 0–1 A |
| Twente | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 3–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| NAC Breda | L 1–2 A | D 3–3 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 1–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| Groningen | L 0–4 A | L 1–2 A |
| Ajax | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 1–4 H | W 3–2 H |
| Utrecht | L 0–4 A | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 14 of 48 · 0.88 per game | 20 of 48 · 1.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Heracles wins1 draws1 Heerenveen wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 15 Mar 2025Heerenveen1–1Heracles
- 27 Sep 2024Heracles2–1Heerenveen
- 28 Oct 2023Heerenveen3–0Heracles
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Heracles | Heerenveen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.63 | 1.63 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.56 | 1.63 | |
| Match goals | 4.19 | 3.25 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 94% | |
| Over 2.5 | 81% | 69% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 75% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 6% | 6% | |
| Failed to score | 31% | 19% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| Heracles | Heerenveen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.30 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.30 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 4.60 | 3.40 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 70% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Heracles | Heerenveen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.44 | 6.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.63 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 11.07 | 10.88 | 10.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 81% 13/16 | 88% 14/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 10/16 | 63% 10/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 7/16 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.13 | 1.69 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.69 | |
| Match total | 4.13 | 3.38 | 3.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 7/16 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 6/16 | 25% 4/16 | |
| Heracles | Heerenveen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 6.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 11.00 | 10.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 2.70 | 3.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Martin Van den Kerkhof Netherlands · 30 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.27league 3.37
Red cards0.30league 0.22
Cards 5+17%league 32%
Fouls18.5league 21.9
Penalties0.27league 0.31
Home wins43%league 48%
Heracles4 with this referee
Record0-1-3
Cards · opp.0.8 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L18 May 25H · NEC Nijmegen1–20
- D31 Jan 25A · NAC Breda1–10
- L18 Aug 24H · PSV Eindhoven1–31
- L28 Oct 23A · Heerenveen0–32
Heerenveen3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D24 Oct 25H · NAC Breda3–31
- W4 Apr 25H · Willem II3–10
- W28 Oct 23H · Heracles3–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Heracles16 games · scored 26 · conceded 41
3
5
0-15
3
4
16-30
5
10
31-45
7
5
46-60
4
7
61-75
4
10
76-90
Heerenveen16 games · scored 26 · conceded 26
2
3
0-15
3
5
16-30
7
4
31-45
4
3
46-60
5
4
61-75
5
7
76-90
Heracles10 games · scored 23 · conceded 23
1
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
5
6
31-45
7
4
46-60
4
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
Heerenveen10 games · scored 18 · conceded 16
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
6
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
