Heracles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Heracles
18th · 17 pts · 24 played
LWLLL
First leg3–4
1–3Full time
PSV Eindhoven
1st · 62 pts · 24 played
DWWLW
Our take
PSV Eindhoven were clear favourites.
PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (78 vs 12). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Heracles. Heracles had 6.2 days of rest, PSV Eindhoven 7 and had to travel 130 km.
Away travel130 kmRest days6.2 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Heracles8%
Draw14%
PSV Eindhoven78%
Heracles8%
Draw16%
PSV Eindhoven76%
Heracles8%
Draw14%
PSV Eindhoven77%
Heracles5%
Draw11%
PSV Eindhoven84%
Heracles9%
Draw15%
PSV Eindhoven76%
Over 2.5 71%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Almelo)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsErwin Blank
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.08
- Matches 25
Team strength
HeraclesPSV Eindhoven
12
L90 StrengthIn forecast
78
9
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
7
AttackIn forecast
60
10
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPSV Eindhoven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
HeraclesPSV Eindhoven
1.29
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.92
2.58
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.21
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
2.00
1.86
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.05
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.92
58%
Scored inContext
96%
4%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
10.46
ShotsContext
17.54
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.92
36%
On target shareContext
39%
7.13
Shots in the boxContext
12.00
65%
Box shareContext
69%
12%
ConversionContext
17%
1.94
OffsidesContext
2.00
16.54
Shots allowedContext
10.88
6.54
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.74
5.13
BlocksContext
3.40
3.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.71
59%
Save rateContext
69%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
336
PassesContext
554
259
Accurate passesContext
482
77%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.72
Team ratingContext
7.07
12.42
FoulsContext
11.42
10.96
Fouls sufferedContext
8.38
1.92
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
2.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.85
1.83
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
-0.33
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
50%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.60
ShotsContext
15.90
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
34%
On target shareContext
38%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.20
71%
Box shareContext
61%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
2.57
OffsidesContext
1.78
15.40
Shots allowedContext
10.30
6.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
4.44
BlocksContext
3.38
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
59%
Save rateContext
67%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
333
PassesContext
539
254
Accurate passesContext
464
76%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.96
12.70
FoulsContext
10.60
10.10
Fouls sufferedContext
8.00
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Heracles
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km71 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
PSV Eindhoven
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel130 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Heracles |
PSV Eindhoven |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 22 Feb | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 21 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 130 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 71 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Heracles
Confirmed XI
22R. Pasveer(G)
24I. Mesík
18A. Van Hoorenbeeck
23M. te Wierik
3J. Wieckhoff
20Rhys Bozinovski
13J. Žambůrek
9N. Ünüvar
70A. Hrustić
14E. Ahlstrand
25L. Zeefuik
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed XI
32M. Kovář(G)
17Mauro Júnior
4A. Obispo
22J. Schouten
8S. Dest
23J. Veerman
10P. Wanner
5I. Perišić
34I. Saibari
27D. Man
21M. Boadu
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Heracles
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.15 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
PSV Eindhoven
Scores -0.10 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Heracles-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- PSV Eindhoven+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Heracles · Home
1.18points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-6
- Scored
- 1.82
- Conceded
- 2.27
PSV Eindhoven · Away
2.75points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 11-0-1
- Scored
- 2.58
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Heracles | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| GO Ahead Eagles | L 0–4 AW 4–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| NAC Breda | L 0–1 HL 1–2 A | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 1–4 AL 1–4 H | W 5–3 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | W 2–1 AW 5–2 H |
| Feyenoord | L 2–4 AL 0–7 H | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A |
| Twente | L 0–2 HL 1–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 0–2 AW 3–0 H | W 6–1 H |
| Heerenveen | L 0–3 H | W 3–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Telstar | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Excelsior | W 2–1 A | W 5–1 HW 2–1 A |
| PEC Zwolle | W 8–2 H | W 4–0 A |
| FC Volendam | L 0–3 A | L 1–2 AW 3–0 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 1–2 H | W 5–1 A |
| Groningen | L 0–4 A | W 2–1 AW 4–2 H |
| Ajax | L 0–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Utrecht | L 0–4 A | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 17 of 69 · 0.74 per game | 59 of 69 · 2.57 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
0 Heracles wins0 draws5 PSV Eindhoven wins
Goals per game1.00 – 3.80
Over 2.580%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets0% · 40%
- 13 Dec 2025PSV Eindhoven4–3Heracles
- 14 May 2025PSV Eindhoven4–1Heracles
- 18 Aug 2024Heracles1–3PSV Eindhoven
- 16 Feb 2024PSV Eindhoven2–0Heracles
- 4 Nov 2023Heracles0–6PSV Eindhoven
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Heracles | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.29 | 2.92 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.58 | 1.21 | |
| Match goals | 3.88 | 4.13 | 3.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 96% | 96% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 83% | 71% |
| Over 3.5 | 42% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 71% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 4% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 42% | 4% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Heracles | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 2.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.60 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.80 | 3.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 90% | 71% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Heracles | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.25 | 7.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 4.17 | |
| Match total | 10.25 | 11.42 | 10.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 17/24 | 83% 20/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 11/24 | 83% 20/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 8/24 | 58% 14/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.92 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 3.92 | 3.05 | 3.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 12/24 | 33% 8/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 8/24 | 25% 6/24 | |
| Heracles | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 8.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 12.10 | 10.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.20 | 3.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Erwin Blank Netherlands · 25 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.20league 3.30
Red cards0.04league 0.19
Cards 5+12%league 30%
Fouls21.7league 21.6
Penalties0.08league 0.24
Home wins40%league 45%
Heracles4 with this referee
Record2-0-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L10 Aug 25A · Utrecht0–42
- L1 Dec 24A · AZ Alkmaar0–13
- W27 Sep 24H · Heerenveen2–12
- W18 Aug 23H · NEC Nijmegen2–12
PSV EindhovenNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Heracles24 games · scored 31 · conceded 62
3
6
0-15
6
8
16-30
6
13
31-45
7
9
46-60
4
9
61-75
5
17
76-90
PSV Eindhoven24 games · scored 70 · conceded 29
11
2
0-15
15
3
16-30
11
9
31-45
11
3
46-60
9
8
61-75
13
4
76-90
Heracles10 games · scored 9 · conceded 26
1
0-15
3
5
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
8
76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 21 · conceded 14
4
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
7
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
