Heracles
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Heracles
18th · 17 pts · 24 played
LWLLL
First leg3–4
1–3Full time
PSV Eindhoven
1st · 62 pts · 24 played
DWWLW
Heracles8.0%fair odds 12.56
Draw13.9%fair odds 7.17
PSV Eindhoven78.1%fair odds 1.28
Expected goals0.84 – 2.83total 3.67
Likeliest score0–210.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
PSV Eindhoven
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Heracles ↓ · PSV Eindhoven → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 6.9 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 2.9 |
| 1 | 1.8 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 2.4 |
| 2 | 0.9 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Heracles goals, columns PSV Eindhoven goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–210.2%9.77
- 0–39.7%10.36
- 1–28.6%11.67
- 1–38.1%12.38
- 0–16.9%14.46
- 0–46.8%14.64
- 1–16.4%15.68
- 1–45.7%17.50
- 0–53.9%25.88
- 2–23.6%27.89
Winning margin
0.5%
Heracles by 3+
fair 186.82
1.8%
Heracles by 2
fair 54.09
5.6%
Heracles by 1
fair 17.93
13.9%
Draw
fair 7.17
19.6%
PSV Eindhoven by 1
fair 5.10
21.1%
PSV Eindhoven by 2
fair 4.73
37.4%
PSV Eindhoven by 3+
fair 2.68
Goal distribution
Total goals
3%0
9%1
18%2
21%3
19%4
31%5+
Heracles goals
43%0
36%1
15%2
4%3
1%4+
PSV Eindhoven goals
6%0
17%1
24%2
22%3
31%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 8.0% | 8.6% | -0.7 pp |
| Draw | 13.9% | 15.2% | -1.3 pp |
| PSV Eindhoven win | 78.1% | 76.1% | +2.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 70.9% | 67.1% | +3.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.7% | 51.9% | +1.8 pp |
| Expected goals Heracles | 0.84 | 0.81 | +0.03 |
| Expected goals PSV Eindhoven | 2.83 | 2.65 | +0.18 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Heracles win8.0%12.56
- Draw13.9%7.17
- PSV Eindhoven win78.1%1.28
- Double chance Heracles or draw21.9%4.57
- Double chance Heracles or PSV Eindhoven86.1%1.16
- Double chance PSV Eindhoven or draw92.0%1.09
- Draw no bet Heracles9.3%10.81
- Draw no bet PSV Eindhoven90.7%1.10
Goals
- Over 0.597.1%1.03
- Over 1.588.4%1.13
- Over 2.570.9%1.41
- Over 3.549.9%2.01
- Over 4.530.6%3.27
- Under 1.511.6%8.61
- Under 2.529.1%3.43
- Under 3.550.1%1.99
Both teams to score
- Yes53.7%1.86
- No46.3%2.16
- Yes and over 2.547.3%2.11
- Heracles win and yes4.9%20.27
- Draw and yes11.1%9.04
- PSV Eindhoven win and yes37.7%2.65
Team goals
- Heracles over 0.556.7%1.76
- Heracles over 1.520.5%4.89
- Heracles over 2.55.3%18.91
- PSV Eindhoven over 0.594.1%1.06
- PSV Eindhoven over 1.577.4%1.29
- PSV Eindhoven over 2.553.7%1.86
- Heracles clean sheet5.9%16.93
- PSV Eindhoven clean sheet43.3%2.31
- Heracles win to nil3.0%33.02
- PSV Eindhoven win to nil40.4%2.47
Handicap
- Heracles −1.52.4%41.94
- Heracles −2.50.5%186.82
- PSV Eindhoven +1.597.6%1.02
- PSV Eindhoven +2.599.5%1.01
- PSV Eindhoven −1.558.5%1.71
- Heracles +1.541.5%2.41
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored218
Favourite won51.4%
Avg chance given to result41.1%
1X2 Brier0.589
Over 2.5 called right62.4%
BTTS called right63.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 37 | 38.1% | 32.4% |
| 40–50% | 80 | 44.9% | 48.8% |
| 50–60% | 49 | 55.0% | 44.9% |
| 60–70% | 28 | 64.2% | 64.3% |
| 70–80% | 17 | 74.1% | 88.2% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 84.7% | 85.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 194 of 218 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5925 | 0.5870 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.8% | 42.1% |
| Favourite won | 50.5% | 52.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 194 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 218 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.