Heracles vs Twente – 18 Jan 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Jan 18 · 13:30 Erve Asito, Almelo

Heracles 18th · 14 pts · 18 played DDLLL

First leg1–2 0–2Full time

Twente 7th · 26 pts · 18 played WDWDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Twente were slight favourites.

Twente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 15). Heracles had 6.9 days of rest, Twente 7.8 and had to travel 22 km.

Away travel22 kmRest days6.9 · 7.8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Heracles26%

Draw25%

Twente49%

Expected goals 1.16 – 1.66

Heracles27%

Draw26%

Twente47%

Expected goals 1.14 – 1.57

Heracles26%

Draw26%

Twente48%

Expected goals 1.17 – 1.65

Heracles20%

Draw24%

Twente56%

Expected goals 1.03 – 1.87

Heracles27%

Draw26%

Twente47%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.58

Over 2.5 54% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Almelo)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsSander van der Eijk

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.18
Matches 50

Team strength

Heracles

Twente

15 L90 StrengthIn forecast 37

9 Current StrengthIn forecast 45

7 AttackIn forecast 41

10 DefenceIn forecast 49

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Heracles

Attack—

Defense risk—

Twente

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Heracles

Twente

1.44 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

2.56 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.22

1.14 xGVia Att/Def 1.88

1.87 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.97

+0.30 Goals minus xGContext -0.38

61% Scored inContext 78%

6% Clean sheetsContext 17%

10.72 ShotsContext 18.28

4.87 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.17

38% On target shareContext 34%

7.24 Shots in the boxContext 11.72

63% Box shareContext 64%

14% ConversionContext 8%

1.58 OffsidesContext 1.56

17.33 Shots allowedContext 9.50

6.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.53

5.65 BlocksContext 3.12

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.12

60% Save rateContext 60%

44% PossessionIn forecast 55%

337 PassesContext 465

261 Accurate passesContext 381

77% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.90

12.28 FoulsContext 10.89

11.11 Fouls sufferedContext 10.11

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.67

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 18 and 18 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

2.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.39 xGVia Att/Def 1.98

1.68 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.92

+0.51 Goals minus xGContext -0.68

60% Scored inContext 90%

0% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.10 ShotsContext 18.50

5.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.70

42% On target shareContext 31%

8.44 Shots in the boxContext 12.60

65% Box shareContext 68%

17% ConversionContext 7%

1.63 OffsidesContext 1.40

14.60 Shots allowedContext 8.80

6.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.78

4.22 BlocksContext 2.67

3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.22

58% Save rateContext 59%

46% PossessionIn forecast 55%

341 PassesContext 472

264 Accurate passesContext 394

77% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.92

12.30 FoulsContext 10.10

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 8.90

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Heracles

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km313 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Twente

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel22 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Heracles	Twente
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 11 Jan	7.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 10 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	22 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	313 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	6.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Heracles Confirmed XI

4-4-2

16T. Jansink(G)

24I. Mesík 18A. Van Hoorenbeeck 4D. Mirani 2M. Benita

73W. Ould-Chikh 13J. Žambůrek 70A. Hrustić 14E. Ahlstrand

25L. Zeefuik 19L. Kulenović

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Twente Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1L. Unnerstall(G)

39M. Rots 3R. Pröpper 23S. Lemkin 28B. van Rooij

20T. van den Belt 6R. Zerrouki

27S. Ørjasæter 14K. Hlynsson 11D. Rots

9R. van Wolfswinkel

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Heracles Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Twente Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Heracles-0.5 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Twente+0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Heracles · Home 1.25points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 3-1-4
Scored: 2.25
Conceded: 2.63

Twente · Away 1.22points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 2-5-2
Scored: 1.56
Conceded: 1.22

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Heracles	Twente
Sparta Rotterdam	L 0–2 AW 3–0 H	W 5–1 A
Heerenveen	L 0–3 H	W 2–1 A
PSV Eindhoven	L 3–4 A	L 0–2 H
Telstar	D 1–1 H	D 0–0 H
Fortuna Sittard	D 1–1 A	W 3–2 H
GO Ahead Eagles	W 4–2 H	W 2–0 H
Excelsior	W 2–1 A	L 0–1 A
PEC Zwolle	W 8–2 H	D 1–1 HL 0–1 A
FC Volendam	L 0–3 A	D 1–1 A
Feyenoord	L 0–7 H	D 1–1 A
NAC Breda	L 1–2 A	D 2–2 H
AZ Alkmaar	L 1–2 H	W 1–0 H
Groningen	L 0–4 A	D 1–1 A
Ajax	L 0–2 A	L 2–3 H
NEC Nijmegen	L 1–4 H	D 3–3 A
Utrecht	L 0–4 A	D 1–1 A
Points	14 of 51 · 0.82 per game	23 of 51 · 1.35 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 Heracles wins1 draws2 Twente wins

Goals per game1.25 – 2.50 Over 2.5100% Both scored75% Clean sheets0% · 25%

5 Oct 2025Twente2–1Heracles
30 Mar 2025Heracles2–1Twente
27 Oct 2024Twente5–0Heracles
22 Oct 2023Heracles2–2Twente

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Heracles	Twente	Forecast
Scored per game	1.44	1.50
Conceded per game	2.56	1.22
Match goals	4.00	2.72	2.82
Over 1.5	100%	78%
Over 2.5	78%	39%	54%
Over 3.5	39%	28%
Both teams scored	56%	67%	56%
Clean sheets	6%	17%
Failed to score	39%	22%
Games	18	18

	Heracles	Twente	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	1.30
Conceded per game	2.60	1.10
Match goals	4.50	2.40	2.82
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	20%	54%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	70%	56%
Clean sheets	0%	30%
Failed to score	40%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Heracles	Twente	League
Corners
Corners won	4.44	5.06
Corners conceded	6.61	3.83
Match total	11.05	8.89	10.20
Over 8.5	78% 14/18	39% 7/18
Over 9.5	61% 11/18	28% 5/18
Over 10.5	44% 8/18	28% 5/18
Cards
Cards	2.11	1.78
Opponent cards	1.89	2.17
Match total	4.00	3.95	3.54
Over 3.5	44% 8/18	44% 8/18
Over 4.5	33% 6/18	39% 7/18

	Heracles	Twente	League
Corners
Corners won	5.10	5.40
Corners conceded	6.50	4.10
Match total	11.60	9.50	10.20
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	1.90
Opponent cards	1.80	2.20
Match total	4.10	4.10	3.54
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sander van der Eijk Netherlands · 50 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.38league 3.33

Red cards0.32league 0.21

Cards 5+32%league 31%

Fouls22.4league 21.6

Penalties0.18league 0.28

Home wins46%league 45%

Heracles4 with this referee

Record0-3-1 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 1

D28 Jan 25H · Groningen1–12
D23 Nov 24H · Waalwijk2–21
D11 Aug 24A · Sparta Rotterdam0–01
L16 Sep 23H · Utrecht1–33

Twente4 with this referee

Record2-0-2 Cards · opp.0.5 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L17 Aug 25H · PSV Eindhoven0–21
L6 Dec 24A · PSV Eindhoven1–61
W3 Feb 24H · Waalwijk3–00
W3 Dec 23A · GO Ahead Eagles3–10

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.