Inter
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Inter were slight favourites.
Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (86 vs 67). Absences weigh more on Inter. Inter had 14 days of rest, AC Milan 15 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days14 · 15Matches / 14d1 · 0
Inter59%
Draw24%
AC Milan17%
Inter61%
Draw23%
AC Milan17%
Inter60%
Draw23%
AC Milan17%
Inter52%
Draw26%
AC Milan22%
Inter60%
Draw23%
AC Milan17%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Milano)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalySimone Sozza
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.46
- Matches 80
Team strength
Inter
AC Milan
86
L90 StrengthIn forecast
67
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
66
91
AttackIn forecast
72
73
DefenceIn forecast
69
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAC Milan
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
InterAC Milan
2.36
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.55
1.09
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.82
1.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.55
0.85
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
+0.48
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
100%
Scored inContext
91%
45%
Clean sheetsContext
45%
17.73
ShotsContext
13.18
5.45
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.64
31%
On target shareContext
35%
12.27
Shots in the boxContext
8.82
70%
Box shareContext
68%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
2.11
OffsidesContext
1.80
9.00
Shots allowedContext
10.64
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.33
BlocksContext
3.50
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
83%
Save rateContext
85%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
530
PassesContext
474
462
Accurate passesContext
416
87%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
7.07
Team ratingContext
6.97
14.27
FoulsContext
9.82
11.45
Fouls sufferedContext
11.82
1.45
Yellow cardsContext
1.45
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.09
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
2.48
xGVia Att/Def
1.57
0.69
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
100%
Scored inContext
90%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
18.80
ShotsContext
12.30
5.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
31%
On target shareContext
37%
13.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
70%
Box shareContext
69%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
1.83
OffsidesContext
1.89
8.00
Shots allowedContext
11.30
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.56
2.88
BlocksContext
3.50
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
84%
Save rateContext
90%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
552
PassesContext
461
481
Accurate passesContext
402
87%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.18
Team ratingContext
6.99
12.90
FoulsContext
9.90
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Inter
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AC Milan
Rest15 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Inter |
AC Milan |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14Serie A 2025-2026, 9 Nov | 15Serie A 2025-2026, 8 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Inter
Confirmed XI
1Y. Sommer(G)
95A. Bastoni
15F. Acerbi
25M. Akanji
32F. Dimarco
8P. Sučić
20H. Çalhanoğlu
23N. Barella
30Carlos Augusto
10L. Martínez
9M. Thuram
AC Milan
Confirmed XI
16M. Maignan(G)
31S. Pavlović
46M. Gabbia
23O. Tomori
33D. Bartesaghi
12A. Rabiot
14L. Modrić
19Y. Fofana
56A. Saelemaekers
10Rafael Leão
11C. Pulišić
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Inter
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
AC Milan
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Inter-0.8 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- AC Milan+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Inter · Home
2.50points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-0-1
- Scored
- 2.83
- Conceded
- 0.67
AC Milan · Away
1.80points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-0
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 0.60
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Inter | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | W 3–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Napoli | L 1–3 A | W 2–1 H |
| AS Roma | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Cremonese | W 4–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Juventus | L 3–4 A | D 0–0 A |
| Udinese | L 1–2 H | W 3–0 A |
| Points | 9 of 18 · 1.50 per game | 13 of 18 · 2.17 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 Inter wins2 draws3 AC Milan wins
Goals per game1.75 – 1.38
Over 2.563%
Both scored88%
Clean sheets13% · 0%
- 2 Feb 2025AC Milan1–1Inter
- 22 Sep 2024Inter1–2AC Milan
- 22 Apr 2024AC Milan1–2Inter
- 16 Sep 2023Inter5–1AC Milan
- 5 Feb 2023Inter1–0AC Milan
- 3 Sep 2022AC Milan3–2Inter
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Inter | AC Milan | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.36 | 1.55 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.09 | 0.82 | |
| Match goals | 3.45 | 2.36 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 91% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 73% | 55% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 55% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 45% | 45% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 9% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Inter | AC Milan | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.30 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Inter | AC Milan | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.18 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 10.18 | 9.22 | 8.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 73% 8/11 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 64% 7/11 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 55% 6/11 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.45 | 1.55 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.64 | 2.27 | |
| Match total | 3.09 | 3.82 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 27% 3/11 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 18% 2/11 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Inter | AC Milan | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.11 | 4.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.89 | 5.13 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.26 | 8.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 3.70 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Simone Sozza Italy · 80 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.26league 3.92
Red cards0.16league 0.13
Cards 5+43%league 40%
Fouls24.9league 26.2
Penalties0.46league 0.30
Home wins36%league 37%
Inter6 with this referee
Record6-0-0
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.5
Pens for · against3 · 0
- W29 Oct 25H · Fiorentina3–01
- W4 Nov 23A · Atalanta2–11
- W16 Sep 23H · AC Milan5–12
- W4 Jan 23H · Napoli1–03
- W8 Oct 22A · Sassuolo2–12
AC Milan5 with this referee
Record2-0-3
Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.8
Pens for · against2 · 1
- L30 Mar 25A · Napoli1–21
- L22 Feb 25A · Torino1–21
- W11 May 24H · Cagliari5–12
- L16 Sep 23A · Inter1–52
- W13 Nov 22H · Fiorentina2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Inter11 games · scored 26 · conceded 12
5
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
4
1
46-60
6
1
61-75
5
4
76-90
AC Milan11 games · scored 17 · conceded 9
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
Inter10 games · scored 24 · conceded 6
4
0-15
2
16-30
5
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
5
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
AC Milan10 games · scored 16 · conceded 7
4
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
