Inter vs AS Roma – 5 Apr 2026

Serie A Gameweek 31 Sun, Apr 5 · 19:45 Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano

Inter 1st · 69 pts · 30 played WWLDD

5–2Full time

AS Roma 6th · 54 pts · 30 played WDLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Inter were slight favourites.

Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 65). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Inter. Inter had 14 days of rest, AS Roma 14.1 and had to travel 479 km.

Away travel479 kmRest days14 · 14.1Matches / 14d1 · 0

Inter59%

Draw24%

AS Roma17%

Expected goals 1.79 – 0.86

Inter57%

Draw24%

AS Roma19%

Expected goals 1.84 – 0.97

Inter59%

Draw24%

AS Roma17%

Expected goals 1.80 – 0.87

Inter52%

Draw26%

AS Roma22%

Expected goals 1.59 – 0.96

Inter59%

Draw24%

AS Roma17%

Expected goals 1.85 – 0.90

Over 2.5 49% Both score 49% Likeliest score 1–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Milano)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalySimone Sozza

Cards per match 4.3
Penalties per match 0.47
Matches 92

Team strength

Inter

AS Roma

82 L90 StrengthIn forecast 65

83 Current StrengthIn forecast 71

91 AttackIn forecast 72

73 DefenceIn forecast 75

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Inter

Attack—

Defense risk—

AS Roma

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Inter

AS Roma

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.33

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.77

1.83 xGVia Att/Def 1.32

0.79 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.06

+0.37 Goals minus xGContext +0.01

93% Scored inContext 77%

50% Clean sheetsContext 43%

17.60 ShotsContext 13.00

5.93 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.37

34% On target shareContext 34%

12.43 Shots in the boxContext 9.37

71% Box shareContext 70%

13% ConversionContext 10%

1.96 OffsidesContext 2.17

8.30 Shots allowedContext 9.80

3.23 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.79

2.71 BlocksContext 2.75

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.07

78% Save rateContext 79%

60% PossessionIn forecast 57%

542 PassesContext 478

474 Accurate passesContext 398

88% Pass accuracyContext 83%

7.04 Team ratingContext 6.90

13.20 FoulsContext 14.27

11.10 Fouls sufferedContext 14.10

1.63 Yellow cardsContext 1.93

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 30 and 30 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.68 xGVia Att/Def 1.26

0.97 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.19

+0.12 Goals minus xGContext +0.44

90% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

17.80 ShotsContext 12.30

5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.20

32% On target shareContext 26%

13.50 Shots in the boxContext 9.63

76% Box shareContext 78%

10% ConversionContext 14%

1.70 OffsidesContext 2.89

8.20 Shots allowedContext 10.10

4.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

1.86 BlocksContext 2.63

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

73% Save rateContext 62%

62% PossessionIn forecast 54%

587 PassesContext 460

519 Accurate passesContext 377

88% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.96 Team ratingContext 6.84

10.90 FoulsContext 15.40

9.70 Fouls sufferedContext 15.00

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Inter

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km496 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

AS Roma

Rest14.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel479 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Inter	AS Roma
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	14Serie A 2025-2026, 22 Mar	14.1Serie A 2025-2026, 22 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	479 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	496 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 0 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	5

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Inter Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1Y. Sommer(G)

95A. Bastoni 15F. Acerbi 25M. Akanji

32F. Dimarco 7P. Zieliński 20H. Çalhanoğlu 23N. Barella 2D. Dumfries

10L. Martínez 9M. Thuram

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

AS Roma Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

99M. Svilar(G)

22Hermoso 5O. Ndicka 23G. Mancini

2D. Rensch 61N. Pisilli 4B. Cristante 19M. Çelik

7L. Pellegrini 18M. Soulé

14D. Malen

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Inter Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

AS Roma Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Inter+0.1 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
AS Roma-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Inter · Home 2.33points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 11-2-2
Scored: 2.60
Conceded: 0.87

AS Roma · Away 1.47points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 7-1-7
Scored: 1.13
Conceded: 0.93

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Inter	AS Roma
Fiorentina	D 1–1 AW 3–0 H	W 2–1 A
Atalanta	D 1–1 HW 1–0 A	L 0–1 A
AC Milan	L 0–1 AL 0–1 H	D 1–1 HL 0–1 A
Genoa	W 2–0 HW 2–1 A	L 1–2 AW 3–1 H
Lecce	W 2–0 AW 1–0 H	W 1–0 HW 2–0 A
Juventus	W 3–2 HL 3–4 A	D 3–3 HL 1–2 A
Sassuolo	W 5–0 AW 2–1 H	W 2–0 HW 1–0 A
Cremonese	W 2–0 AW 4–1 H	W 3–0 HW 3–1 A
Pisa	W 6–2 HW 2–0 A	W 1–0 A
Udinese	W 1–0 AL 1–2 H	L 0–1 AW 2–0 H
Napoli	D 2–2 HL 1–3 A	D 2–2 AL 0–1 H
Parma	W 2–0 A	W 2–1 H
Bologna	W 3–1 H	W 1–0 H
Como	W 4–0 H	L 1–2 AW 1–0 H
Lazio	W 2–0 H	W 1–0 A
Verona	W 2–1 A	W 2–0 H
Cagliari	W 2–0 A	W 2–0 HL 0–1 A
Torino	W 5–0 H	W 2–0 AL 0–1 H
Points	66 of 87 · 2.28 per game	54 of 87 · 1.86 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

7 Inter wins0 draws2 AS Roma wins

Goals per game1.78 – 0.67 Over 2.544% Both scored33% Clean sheets56% · 11%

18 Oct 2025AS Roma0–1Inter
27 Apr 2025Inter0–1AS Roma
20 Oct 2024AS Roma0–1Inter
10 Feb 2024AS Roma2–4Inter
29 Oct 2023Inter1–0AS Roma
6 May 2023AS Roma0–2Inter

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Inter	AS Roma	Forecast
Scored per game	2.20	1.33
Conceded per game	0.80	0.77
Match goals	3.00	2.10	2.65
Over 1.5	80%	57%
Over 2.5	50%	33%	49%
Over 3.5	33%	13%
Both teams scored	43%	33%	49%
Clean sheets	50%	43%
Failed to score	7%	23%
Games	30	30

	Inter	AS Roma	Forecast
Scored per game	2.30	1.70
Conceded per game	0.70	1.50
Match goals	3.00	3.20	2.65
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	30%	60%	49%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	60%	49%
Clean sheets	50%	30%
Failed to score	10%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Inter	AS Roma	League
Corners
Corners won	6.37	5.00
Corners conceded	2.60	3.07
Match total	8.97	8.07	8.67
Over 8.5	57% 17/30	40% 12/30
Over 9.5	50% 15/30	27% 8/30
Over 10.5	40% 12/30	20% 6/30
Cards
Cards	1.63	2.03
Opponent cards	1.77	2.27
Match total	3.40	4.30	3.92
Over 3.5	33% 10/30	67% 20/30
Over 4.5	20% 6/30	43% 13/30

	Inter	AS Roma	League
Corners
Corners won	6.40	5.50
Corners conceded	2.10	3.20
Match total	8.50	8.70	8.67
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.20
Opponent cards	1.80	2.40
Match total	3.50	4.60	3.92
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Simone Sozza Italy · 92 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.18league 3.74

Red cards0.14league 0.20

Cards 5+41%league 35%

Fouls25.0league 25.1

Penalties0.47league 0.30

Home wins39%league 39%

Inter7 with this referee

Record6-0-1 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.4 Pens for · against4 · 0

L23 Nov 25H · AC Milan0–11
W29 Oct 25H · Fiorentina3–01
W4 Nov 23A · Atalanta2–11
W16 Sep 23H · AC Milan5–12
W4 Jan 23H · Napoli1–03

AS Roma16 with this referee

Record7-4-5 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.2 Pens for · against3 · 3 Reds1

D1 Mar 26H · Juventus3–31
L20 Dec 25A · Juventus1–23
W21 Sep 25A · Lazio1–01
L12 May 25A · Atalanta1–20
D13 Apr 25A · Lazio1–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.