Inter
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Inter were clear favourites.
Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (86 vs 60). Absences weigh more on Lazio. Inter had 7.3 days of rest, Lazio 6 and had to travel 479 km.
Away travel479 kmRest days7.3 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 3
Inter66%
Draw21%
Lazio13%
Inter65%
Draw21%
Lazio14%
Inter64%
Draw22%
Lazio14%
Inter59%
Draw24%
Lazio18%
Inter66%
Draw20%
Lazio13%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Milano)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyGianluca Manganiello
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 51
Team strength
Inter
Lazio
86
L90 StrengthIn forecast
60
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
91
AttackIn forecast
53
73
DefenceIn forecast
63
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLazio
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
InterLazio
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.88
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
0.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
+0.52
Goals minus xGContext
+0.35
100%
Scored inContext
50%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
18.70
ShotsContext
10.10
5.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
31%
On target shareContext
34%
12.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
69%
Box shareContext
60%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
2.13
OffsidesContext
1.20
9.10
Shots allowedContext
14.00
3.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.33
BlocksContext
2.60
2.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.10
80%
Save rateContext
85%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
527
PassesContext
440
460
Accurate passesContext
372
87%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.95
13.10
FoulsContext
10.70
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
17.00
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
2.47
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
0.70
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.35
100%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
20.00
ShotsContext
10.10
6.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
31%
On target shareContext
34%
14.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
70%
Box shareContext
60%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
1.83
OffsidesContext
1.20
8.10
Shots allowedContext
14.00
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
2.89
BlocksContext
2.60
2.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.10
80%
Save rateContext
85%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
546
PassesContext
440
476
Accurate passesContext
372
87%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.16
Team ratingContext
6.95
11.80
FoulsContext
10.70
13.70
Fouls sufferedContext
17.00
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Inter
Rest7.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km282 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lazio
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel479 km531 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Inter |
Lazio |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.3Serie A 2025-2026, 2 Nov | 6Serie A 2025-2026, 3 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 479 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 282 km | 531 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 13.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Inter
Confirmed XI
1Y. Sommer(G)
95A. Bastoni
15F. Acerbi
25M. Akanji
32F. Dimarco
8P. Sučić
20H. Çalhanoğlu
23N. Barella
2D. Dumfries
10L. Martínez
14A. Bonny
Lazio
Confirmed XI
94I. Provedel(G)
77A. Marušić
13A. Romagnoli
34Mario Gila
29M. Lazzari
26T. Bašić
32D. Cataldi
8M. Guendouzi
10M. Zaccagni
19B. Dia
18G. Isaksen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Inter
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lazio
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Inter+1.5 pp
- Draw-0.7 pp
- Lazio-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Inter · Home
2.40points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-1
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.80
Lazio · Away
1.00points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-2
- Scored
- 0.60
- Conceded
- 0.60
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Inter | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| Verona | W 2–1 A | W 4–0 H |
| AS Roma | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Cagliari | W 2–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Sassuolo | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Juventus | L 3–4 A | W 1–0 H |
| Torino | W 5–0 H | D 3–3 H |
| Points | 15 of 18 · 2.50 per game | 10 of 18 · 1.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 Inter wins2 draws2 Lazio wins
Goals per game2.25 – 1.38
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 18 May 2025Inter2–2Lazio
- 16 Dec 2024Lazio0–6Inter
- 19 May 2024Inter1–1Lazio
- 17 Dec 2023Lazio0–2Inter
- 30 Apr 2023Inter3–1Lazio
- 26 Aug 2022Lazio3–1Inter
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Inter | Lazio | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.40 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 2.00 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 30% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 10% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Inter | Lazio | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.40 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 2.00 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 30% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 10% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Inter | Lazio | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.40 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.40 | 4.25 | |
| Match total | 10.80 | 8.25 | 8.90 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 4.50 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Inter | Lazio | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.56 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.11 | 4.25 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 8.25 | 8.90 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 4.50 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 10% 1/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Gianluca Manganiello Italy · 51 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.45league 3.89
Red cards0.16league 0.12
Cards 5+33%league 39%
Fouls24.0league 25.9
Penalties0.22league 0.31
Home wins41%league 37%
Inter4 with this referee
Record4-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W3 May 25H · Verona1–01
- W5 Mar 23H · Lecce2–00
- W6 May 22H · Empoli4–21
- W27 Aug 21A · Verona3–12
Lazio7 with this referee
Record5-0-2
Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.9
Pens for · against3 · 0
- L24 Aug 25A · Como0–23
- W2 Mar 25A · AC Milan2–11
- W3 Feb 25A · Cagliari2–10
- W21 Dec 24A · Lecce2–11
- L30 Oct 22H · Salernitana1–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Inter10 games · scored 24 · conceded 12
4
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
4
1
46-60
5
1
61-75
5
4
76-90
Lazio10 games · scored 13 · conceded 7
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
1
76-90
Inter10 games · scored 24 · conceded 7
4
0-15
2
16-30
5
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
Lazio10 games · scored 13 · conceded 7
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
