Inter
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Inter were clear favourites.
Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (85 vs 16). Inter usually keep the ball (58% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Inter had 6.2 days of rest, Pisa 7 and had to travel 218 km.
Away travel218 kmRest days6.2 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 2
Inter86%
Draw10%
Pisa4%
Inter87%
Draw9%
Pisa3%
Inter86%
Draw10%
Pisa4%
Inter81%
Draw13%
Pisa5%
Inter87%
Draw9%
Pisa3%
Over 2.5 68%
Both score 38%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Milano)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMatteo Marcenaro
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 43
Team strength
Inter
Pisa
85
L90 StrengthIn forecast
16
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
12
91
AttackIn forecast
15
73
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPisa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
InterPisa
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.76
0.81
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.48
1.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
0.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
-0.30
95%
Scored inContext
48%
52%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
17.33
ShotsContext
10.19
5.76
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.29
33%
On target shareContext
26%
11.86
Shots in the boxContext
8.17
70%
Box shareContext
72%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
2.11
OffsidesContext
1.80
8.29
Shots allowedContext
14.81
3.06
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.43
2.94
BlocksContext
4.10
2.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
79%
Save rateContext
71%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
526
PassesContext
306
458
Accurate passesContext
232
87%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
7.04
Team ratingContext
6.74
14.05
FoulsContext
12.76
11.67
Fouls sufferedContext
12.29
1.48
Yellow cardsContext
2.05
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.51
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
0.88
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.42
90%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
16.10
ShotsContext
10.70
5.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.63
36%
On target shareContext
27%
10.90
Shots in the boxContext
9.38
68%
Box shareContext
79%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
2.20
OffsidesContext
2.33
8.60
Shots allowedContext
14.00
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
2.89
BlocksContext
3.50
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
67%
Save rateContext
70%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
501
PassesContext
303
433
Accurate passesContext
227
86%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.72
13.80
FoulsContext
12.50
12.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Inter
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km642 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Pisa
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel218 km689 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Inter |
Pisa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Serie A 2025-2026, 17 Jan | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 16 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 218 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 642 km | 689 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 6 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.9 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Inter
Confirmed XI
1Y. Sommer(G)
95A. Bastoni
6S. de Vrij
31Y. Bisseck
30Carlos Augusto
22H. Mkhitaryan
7P. Zieliński
8P. Sučić
11L. de Lima
94F. Esposito
10L. Martínez
Pisa
Confirmed XI
22S. Scuffet(G)
26Francesco Coppola
5S. Canestrelli
33A. Calabresi
3S. Angori
20M. Aebischer
6M. Marin
15I. Touré
10M. Tramoni
32S. Moreo
9H. Meister
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Inter
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Pisa
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Inter-0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Pisa+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Inter · Home
2.27points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-1-2
- Scored
- 2.45
- Conceded
- 0.73
Pisa · Away
0.70points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-7-3
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Inter | Pisa |
|---|---|---|
| Udinese | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Lecce | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Napoli | D 2–2 HL 1–3 A | L 2–3 A |
| Parma | W 2–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Bologna | W 3–1 H | L 0–4 A |
| Atalanta | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Genoa | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Como | W 4–0 H | L 0–3 H |
| AC Milan | L 0–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Lazio | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Verona | W 2–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Fiorentina | W 3–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| AS Roma | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Cremonese | W 4–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Cagliari | W 2–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| Sassuolo | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Juventus | L 3–4 A | L 0–2 H |
| Torino | W 5–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 46 of 60 · 2.30 per game | 14 of 60 · 0.70 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Inter wins0 draws0 Pisa wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 30 Nov 2025Pisa0–2Inter
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Inter | Pisa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 0.76 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.81 | 1.48 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.24 | 3.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 62% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 38% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 43% | 38% |
| Clean sheets | 52% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 5% | 52% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Inter | Pisa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.50 | 3.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 38% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Inter | Pisa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.67 | 3.85 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.67 | 5.15 | |
| Match total | 9.34 | 9.00 | 8.80 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 13/21 | 55% 11/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 11/21 | 45% 9/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 8/21 | 30% 6/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.48 | 2.14 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.57 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 3.05 | 3.81 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 24% 5/21 | 62% 13/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 14% 3/21 | 33% 7/21 | |
| Inter | Pisa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.90 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.60 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 9.56 | 8.80 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 4.10 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Matteo Marcenaro Italy · 43 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.86league 3.81
Red cards0.33league 0.17
Cards 5+65%league 36%
Fouls23.9league 25.7
Penalties0.21league 0.30
Home wins53%league 37%
Inter4 with this referee
Record4-0-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W5 Oct 24H · Torino3–21
- W23 Dec 23H · Lecce2–01
- W24 Sep 23A · Empoli1–02
- W13 May 23H · Sassuolo4–22
Pisa1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W7 Nov 25H · Cremonese1–04
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Inter21 games · scored 44 · conceded 17
8
1
0-15
5
2
16-30
5
4
31-45
6
2
46-60
10
2
61-75
10
6
76-90
Pisa21 games · scored 16 · conceded 31
3
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
7
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
6
61-75
5
8
76-90
Inter10 games · scored 17 · conceded 8
3
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
Pisa10 games · scored 8 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
5
61-75
3
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
