Inter vs Torino – 25 Aug 2025

Serie A Gameweek 1 Mon, Aug 25 · 19:45 Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano

Inter

5–0Full time

Torino

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Inter were clear favourites.

Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (85 vs 39). Absences weigh more on Inter. Inter had ? days of rest, Torino ? and had to travel 125 km.

Away travel125 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0

Inter73%

Draw18%

Torino9%

Expected goals 2.31 – 0.69

Inter75%

Draw16%

Torino8%

Expected goals 2.48 – 0.72

Inter74%

Draw17%

Torino9%

Expected goals 2.31 – 0.66

Inter67%

Draw21%

Torino13%

Expected goals 2.06 – 0.78

Inter75%

Draw16%

Torino9%

Expected goals 2.48 – 0.75

Over 2.5 58% Both score 45% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Milano)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyFederico La Penna

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.31
Matches 36

Team strength

Inter

Torino

85 L90 StrengthIn forecast 39

83 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

91 AttackIn forecast 39

73 DefenceIn forecast 47

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Inter

Attack—

Defense risk—

Torino

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Inter

Torino

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.60

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.32 xGVia Att/Def 0.91

1.61 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.20

+0.28 Goals minus xGContext -0.31

70% Scored inContext 50%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.00 ShotsContext 11.10

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.44

36% On target shareContext 28%

7.70 Shots in the boxContext 6.50

71% Box shareContext 57%

15% ConversionContext 5%

3.44 OffsidesContext 1.75

16.50 Shots allowedContext 12.20

5.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

4.80 BlocksContext 3.22

3.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.13

69% Save rateContext 83%

50% PossessionIn forecast 48%

469 PassesContext 383

398 Accurate passesContext 313

85% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.99 Team ratingContext 6.85

10.80 FoulsContext 11.90

11.10 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Inter

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Torino

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel125 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Inter	Torino
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	125 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	6	5.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Inter Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1Y. Sommer(G)

95A. Bastoni 15F. Acerbi 5B. Pavard

32F. Dimarco 22H. Mkhitaryan 23N. Barella 8P. Sučić 2D. Dumfries

10L. Martínez 9M. Thuram

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Torino Confirmed XI

4-3-3

81F. Israel(G)

34C. Biraghi 5A. Masina 23Saúl Coco 20V. Lazaro

66G. Gineitis 6E. İlkhan 22C. Casadei

10N. Vlašić 18G. Simeone 26C. Ngonge

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Inter Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Torino Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Inter-0.7 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
Torino+0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Inter · Home No home games yet this season.

Torino · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

7 Inter wins1 draws0 Torino wins

Goals per game1.75 – 0.38 Over 2.525% Both scored25% Clean sheets75% · 0%

11 May 2025Torino0–2Inter
5 Oct 2024Inter3–2Torino
28 Apr 2024Inter2–0Torino
21 Oct 2023Torino0–3Inter
3 Jun 2023Torino0–1Inter
10 Sep 2022Inter1–0Torino

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Inter	Torino	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.00
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	58%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	45%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Inter	Torino	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.00
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	58%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	45%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Inter	Torino	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	8.00
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.38
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Inter	Torino	League
Corners
Corners won	4.40	4.60
Corners conceded	4.50	3.90
Match total	8.90	8.50	8.00
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.50	1.90
Opponent cards	2.20	1.20
Match total	4.70	3.10	4.38
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Federico La Penna Italy · 36 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.44league 4.22

Red cards0.08league 0.22

Cards 5+42%league 67%

Fouls25.6league 25.6

Penalties0.31league 0.00

Home wins33%league 33%

Inter3 with this referee

Record2-1-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.7 Pens for · against1 · 1

W11 May 25A · Torino2–03
W10 Feb 25H · Fiorentina2–14
D17 Mar 24H · Napoli1–12

Torino4 with this referee

Record0-0-4 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 1

L11 May 25H · Inter0–21
L3 Nov 24H · Fiorentina0–12
L22 Feb 24H · Lazio0–23
L29 Dec 23A · Fiorentina0–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.