Istanbul Basaksehir
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Istanbul Basaksehir
7th · 23 pts · 17 played
LWDWW
2–1Full time
Fatih Karagümrük
18th · 9 pts · 17 played
DLLDL
Istanbul Basaksehir62.2%fair odds 1.61
Draw22.0%fair odds 4.56
Fatih Karagümrük15.8%fair odds 6.32
Expected goals2.00 – 0.91total 2.91
Likeliest score2–010.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Fatih Karagümrük
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Istanbul Basaksehir ↓ · Fatih Karagümrük → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Istanbul Basaksehir goals, columns Fatih Karagümrük goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–010.9%9.17
- 1–110.4%9.58
- 1–010.4%9.63
- 2–19.9%10.09
- 3–07.3%13.76
- 3–16.6%15.14
- 0–06.0%16.72
- 1–24.5%22.18
- 2–24.5%22.19
- 0–14.4%22.55
Winning margin
19.2%
Istanbul Basaksehir by 3+
fair 5.21
19.2%
Istanbul Basaksehir by 2
fair 5.21
23.8%
Istanbul Basaksehir by 1
fair 4.20
22.0%
Draw
fair 4.56
10.5%
Fatih Karagümrük by 1
fair 9.49
4.0%
Fatih Karagümrük by 2
fair 25.18
1.3%
Fatih Karagümrük by 3+
fair 75.66
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
Istanbul Basaksehir goals
14%0
27%1
27%2
18%3
14%4+
Fatih Karagümrük goals
40%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Istanbul Basaksehir win | 62.2% | 61.4% | +0.8 pp |
| Draw | 22.0% | 22.4% | -0.4 pp |
| Fatih Karagümrük win | 15.8% | 16.2% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.6% | 54.5% | +1.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 52.1% | 51.6% | +0.5 pp |
| Expected goals Istanbul Basaksehir | 2.00 | 1.96 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals Fatih Karagümrük | 0.91 | 0.90 | +0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Istanbul Basaksehir win62.2%1.61
- Draw22.0%4.56
- Fatih Karagümrük win15.8%6.32
- Double chance Istanbul Basaksehir or draw84.2%1.19
- Double chance Istanbul Basaksehir or Fatih Karagümrük78.0%1.28
- Double chance Fatih Karagümrük or draw37.8%2.65
- Draw no bet Istanbul Basaksehir79.7%1.25
- Draw no bet Fatih Karagümrük20.3%4.93
Goals
- Over 0.594.0%1.06
- Over 1.579.2%1.26
- Over 2.555.6%1.80
- Over 3.533.2%3.01
- Over 4.517.0%5.90
- Under 1.520.8%4.81
- Under 2.544.4%2.25
- Under 3.566.8%1.50
Both teams to score
- Yes52.1%1.92
- No47.9%2.09
- Yes and over 2.541.7%2.40
- Istanbul Basaksehir win and yes27.9%3.58
- Draw and yes16.0%6.26
- Fatih Karagümrük win and yes8.3%12.10
Team goals
- Istanbul Basaksehir over 0.586.5%1.16
- Istanbul Basaksehir over 1.559.4%1.68
- Istanbul Basaksehir over 2.532.3%3.10
- Fatih Karagümrük over 0.559.7%1.67
- Fatih Karagümrük over 1.523.1%4.33
- Fatih Karagümrük over 2.56.4%15.54
- Istanbul Basaksehir clean sheet40.3%2.48
- Fatih Karagümrük clean sheet13.5%7.38
- Istanbul Basaksehir win to nil34.3%2.91
- Fatih Karagümrük win to nil7.6%13.22
Handicap
- Istanbul Basaksehir −1.538.4%2.60
- Istanbul Basaksehir −2.519.2%5.21
- Fatih Karagümrük +1.561.6%1.62
- Fatih Karagümrük +2.580.8%1.24
- Fatih Karagümrük −1.55.3%18.89
- Istanbul Basaksehir +1.594.7%1.06
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored153
Favourite won47.1%
Avg chance given to result40.3%
1X2 Brier0.593
Over 2.5 called right52.3%
BTTS called right50.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 22 | 38.0% | 27.3% |
| 40–50% | 66 | 44.3% | 34.8% |
| 50–60% | 38 | 54.9% | 55.3% |
| 60–70% | 15 | 65.6% | 73.3% |
| 70–80% | 10 | 76.2% | 90.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 82.6% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 127 of 153 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6001 | 0.5835 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.9% | 41.2% |
| Favourite won | 48.0% | 50.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 127 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 153 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.